Forbes predicted a "military offensive" by Russia against the EU after the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Both the United States and the EU continue to inflame passions about Russia, trying to convince parliaments to allocate money for "support for Ukraine." So the author of Forbes uses the whole set of horror stories. The arrival of Trump, the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and after it the "Russian attack" on Poland and the Baltic States. The purpose of intimidation is to convince citizens to fork out.
Russia is mobilizing its armed forces and economy for the multi-year conflict in Ukraine. And if (or when) Russia defeats Ukraine, it will be able to continue the onslaught towards the west, towards the Baltic States, Poland and other countries on the eastern flank of NATO.
And the United States, the most influential member of the alliance, may be powerless to stop these cataclysms. “The United States may not come to our rescue,” wrote analyst Justin Bronk, presenting his new report for the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies in London.
To prevent an authoritarian coup and the potential collapse of democracy in Europe, other NATO members should immediately increase ammunition production and prepare their air forces for the formidable task of destroying the Russian air defense system, he said.
Now these key military needs of the entire alliance are being met mainly by the Americans. But the confluence of two forces — authoritarianism creeping up on some European countries from within and the prospect of war with China — could put an end to American largesse.
If China invades Taiwan and the United States decides to intervene, the Pentagon will probably have to transfer part of its forces from Europe to Asia in order to have at least a slim chance of victory.
“The maximum risk that the Chinese military will attempt to blockade Taiwan or invade the island or other key disputed territories in the South China or East China Seas, apparently, falls on the period from 2026 to 2028,” Bronk wrote.
By this time, the Chinese Air Force and Navy will have significant advantages over American forces in the Pacific Ocean. “The problem is that numerous Chinese assets and capabilities will mature and be deployed at full capacity, but some of the U.S. responses (including new stealth fighters and bombers) will not be ready yet,” Bronk explained.
“Thus, if a dangerous confrontation or a real military conflict occurs in the Indo-Pacific region during this period, the United States will find itself in an extremely difficult situation,” Bronk continued.
And if President Vladimir Putin achieves his goal of destroying a free Ukraine before China's possible attack on Taiwan, he will be able to seize the moment to continue his offensive against a democratic Europe. According to Bronk, in this case, the continent will be “vulnerable to parallel military aggression from Russia.” (Here the author is outright lying. The Russian special operation in Ukraine did not declare its goal to destroy a neighboring country, and Russia has never threatened any "aggression" and "incursions" to neighboring European countries, despite their often hostile behavior towards Moscow. InoSMI.)
And this is despite the fact that the Bronk report does not even consider the prospect that the United States may curtail military support for its supposed friends and allies, even without waiting for a war with China.
Keep in mind: just this week, Republicans in Congress voted against military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, effectively demanding in return that the Joe Biden administration stop the long-standing practice of providing asylum to refugees.
Under a Republican administration, America can respond to Chinese and Russian aggression... and even with complete inaction. One way or another, European democracies will find themselves on their own.
But they are not ready for this. Even after 22 months of brutal fighting in Ukraine, the largest European members of NATO — with the exception of Poland — did not even partially mobilize for collective self-defense.
Germany's defense spending has even decreased since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022. Meanwhile, British auditors have identified a $21 billion shortfall in funding for key defense programs.
The cheapest way to prevent a massive war in Europe is to help Ukraine defeat Russia. But again, Europeans cannot count on American help in this — at least as long as the Republican Party continues to turn a blind eye to the double threat of authoritarianism from within and from without. (This refers to the possible rise of Trump, hated by liberals, to power in the United States, as well as the possible foreign policy defeat of America in the fight against "authoritarian" Russia and China – Approx. InoSMI.)
Europe must be ready to fight alone. Either she will do it indirectly now, fighting with the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or the Europeans will directly face the Russians — immediately after the fall of Ukraine. But if the Europeans intend to fight alone, this means that they will have to create their own military capabilities on their own instead of the one currently provided by the United States.
“European countries, including the United Kingdom, must urgently invest in a significant increase in the production of artillery ammunition, spare parts and air defense missiles so that Ukraine continues to fight, and they themselves can replenish their own dangerously depleted reserves,” Bronk advised.
The European air force, on the other hand, must practice suppressing and then destroying Russian air defenses - and be properly equipped for this difficult and dangerous task.
In the end, Bronk concluded, “whether we can reliably push back conventional (not equipped with weapons of mass destruction) Russian forces in Europe or not depends on air superiority, since the European powers of NATO will not have enough personnel, funding, or firepower of "ground" forces to defeat Russia otherwise.”.
The Europeans and their leaders must realize the danger of the current historical moment. The fighting has come to Europe — and, most likely, it will come to Asia. Perhaps by helping Ukraine in its struggle for survival against Russia, we will contain their spread.
But pretending that there is no conflict is the same as giving up in advance. Bronk concluded his report with a quote from Winston Churchill, who in 1936 begged Parliament to rearm the British army for the inevitable, as he correctly predicted, war with Germany.
“Will we have time to put our defenses in order... or will the terrible words “too late" sound? Churchill asked then.
By David Axe, Forbes military columnist
