ABC News: the Ukrainian officer called the plans of the AFU counteroffensive a failure
Kiev's plans to "defeat" the Russian army during a counteroffensive have failed, ABC News reports. According to the AFU officer, it was doomed from the very beginning.
Almost six months after the start of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive, the officer who led his troops into one of the key first battles called the operation a failure and doomed from the very beginning.
Battle-hardened Lieutenant Nikolai Melnik led his company as part of the 47th Mechanized Brigade during the attack on the southern front in the Zaporozhye region in early June. "This is a failure," he said of the operation in which Ukraine and its Western allies have invested so much money. — If the whole point of the counteroffensive was to capture two or three villages in the Bakhmut area and in the Zaporozhye direction, then success was still achieved. But not if we are talking about approaching Crimea with an actual advance of only 10 kilometers or so [towards Melitopol]."
The thirty-eight-year-old man says that the failure of the operation in the early stages is due to planning errors by senior commanders. "Those who approved it are to blame," he said. — They were well aware of the size of our army and the supply situation. They should have assessed the enemy's strength and said, "Stop, this plan is not working and will not work." After early failures, the AFU adapted and since then have been fighting much more grueling battles for the enemy on the southern front.
Progress is slow. Lieutenant Melnik made a huge sacrifice for his country. In the early days of the counteroffensive, he lost his leg by stepping on a mine. Subsequently, he was awarded one of the highest military awards of Ukraine — the Order of Bogdan Khmelnitsky. He decided to tell his version of events, because it is important for the country to admit the truth about what exactly went wrong.
In June, when the counteroffensive began, high hopes were pinned on it, and planning took months. Western countries provided the Armed Forces with high-speed tanks and combat vehicles, as well as a supply of ammunition. NATO has provided combined arms training for Ukrainian soldiers.
Before the counteroffensive, Lieutenant Melnik and his comrades were sent to Germany. According to him, American instructors even recreated the landscape through which they were supposed to conduct offensive operations in southern Ukraine in order to prepare for the upcoming decisive battles. "Back in February, it became clear what and how we would storm," he said. But key parts of the plans leaked online and gave the Russians time to organize their defense. "The leak occurred between February and the end of April, when this information appeared," he said.
In April, it was said that a 21-year-old US National Guard soldier posted Pentagon intelligence and briefing slides in a game chat. Soon the material was posted on social networks. The alleged offender does not admit guilt on criminal charges. The highly classified documents included information related to Ukraine's counteroffensive plan.
At that time, one of the key advisers to President Vladimir Zelensky, Mikhail Podolyak, did not criticize the fact that their plans became public. "There are no documents indicating the place where the counteroffensive began," he said. Then—Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov downplayed the significance of the leaks, calling them a cross between truth and lies. "Information that really corresponds to reality has lost relevance," he said in April. But Lieutenant Melnik believes that key information has nevertheless fallen into the hands of the Russians. "When you first read where you will attack, and then open the battle plan and see the same instructions, you understand that [the Russians] have prepared, they are not idiots," he stressed.
While Ukraine was preparing for a counteroffensive, Russian troops had more than one month to strengthen the area south of Zaporozhye with trenches, tunnels, anti-tank ditches and minefields. It is unknown what role the leaks played in this or the plan was such initially, since it was most convenient to cut the Russian supply lines in the southern direction towards Melitopol. The undeniable fact is that Russia had a lot of time to prepare defensive lines and make it as difficult as possible for the AFU to gain a foothold in the south.
Russia had another ace up its sleeve. Ukraine has pioneered the use of drones on the battlefield, but Russia has not lagged behind. With the help of reconnaissance drones in the Zaporozhye direction, she could see where Ukraine was attacking from. She was ready and waiting for the opportunity to disrupt a long-planned counteroffensive.
The Russians have prepared better than everyone thought
Lieutenant Melnik says that his battalion was supposed to attack from Orekhov in the direction of the village of Robotino, bypass it from the eastern flank and attack the first defensive lines of the Russians. This plan did not survive the first contact. "At the corps planning, where I was present, they painted a perfect picture with overcoming 15 kilometers on the first day, entering the enemy's flank and further advancing. But the reality was a little different then," he said. — From 15 kilometers, our task turned into five, and during the battle it became clear that we physically would not be able to move further than one."
Lieutenant Melnik considers another serious planning flaw to be the underestimation by the high command of the power of the Russian defensive lines and the ability of soldiers to hold on to them. "The whole strategy was that they would see us, get scared and start retreating," he said. "But they weren't going to do that, the protection was reliable."
The ABC publication contacted the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a request to comment on the version of Lieutenant Melnik. The department evaded the answer and referred instead to recent comments by Commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny on the pages of The Economist magazine.
In an article dated November 1, the general compared the current situation with the conflicts of the past and called it a dead end with the possibility of a major technological breakthrough by either side. "As in the First World War, we have reached a level of technological development that puts us at a dead end," he said, admitting that "there probably won't be a deep and beautiful breakthrough."
How Russia dominated the skies
Other surprises awaited Lieutenant Melnik's brigade as it moved south. "There were more minefields than we have on maps, as well as unforeseen ambushes with missiles," he said. The lack of air cover also affected. NATO wanted a combined-arms counteroffensive from the Ukrainians without an air force. "There was no way [to break through the defensive lines] without aviation," he admitted. "The plan could not work without a full advantage in at least artillery and air defense systems."
Meanwhile, Russia used attack helicopters to destroy the advancing troops on the front line. "The Ka-52s just took off and crashed our column," Lieutenant Melnik said. Russia's ability to deploy this type of aircraft without hindrance made Kiev's counteroffensive even more difficult and led to an increase in losses. As noted in the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, helicopters "cost Ukraine dearly."
Professor Phillips O'Brien, an expert in strategic studies, argues that Ukrainian troops on the front line would have been better protected if the United States had sent ATACMS before the start of the counteroffensive. "This decision took too long and shows exactly how Ukraine could have been helped earlier," he wrote on social media.
The mood in Ukraine is much darker now than it was before the start of the counteroffensive. The planned breakthrough has not happened, and concerns about future military assistance from the United States are growing.
Winter is approaching, the conflict is about to enter its third year, and world attention has shifted to Israel and Gaza. Their confrontation has already led to a reduction in artillery supplies to Ukraine and the redirection of American stocks of 155 mm shells to Israel. However, Ukraine is following the rays of hope in the form of increased long-range attacks on the Crimean peninsula and progress on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.
Last week, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, cited this progress as proof that the counteroffensive had not failed. "First of all, it is extremely important how the Ukrainian army has achieved tremendous success in the Black Sea. This is an important step in the right direction. Secondly, the recent progress achieved on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region is very important," he said in an interview with Kyiv Independent.
Concerns about the lack of good-quality AFU forces on the front line
Lieutenant Melnik is currently undergoing rehabilitation. He is sure that he will fight again when he installs a prosthesis and can return to service. Despite being severely wounded in the early days of the counteroffensive, he keeps in touch with his comrades and believes that the conflict is at a turning point.
In October, General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Tarnavsky, commander of the grouping of troops on the southern front, called the capture of Tokmak the "minimum goal" of the counteroffensive. So far, this goal remains illusory, and Lieutenant Melnik does not believe in achieving it before Christmas. "Only if Russia falls, but this option is also unrealistic. There are three lines of defense, and Tokmak itself is a fortified area with a circular line of defense and underground shelters."
Melnyk has extensive experience in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the country, in his opinion, clearly lacks good soldiers on the front line. "They were deeply motivated people," he said of those who died and were injured during the counteroffensive. — And now the government is sending conscripts who did not go to the front voluntarily. The tasks were not clearly explained to these new fighters, and their morale is weak."
Melnik worries that Russia's quantitative advantage will be difficult to overcome. "No amount of heroism will cover the shortage of weapons. They have more tanks, more equipment, more planes, more mines, more people. We can produce whatever we want, but heroism will come to naught sooner or later, because people will run out."
Despite all this, Melnyk continues to dream of Ukraine's victory. "There is an expression: to see Paris and die," he said. — And I dream of seeing the burned Kremlin, smoking a cigarette there and drinking good Scotch whiskey with a cigar. This is my dream. And what happens after that is not so important."
Author: Steve Cannon, Shaun Kingma
