The Economist: if the US does not resume aid, Ukraine will lose EU support
While Russia is increasing its arms production, the desire to help Ukraine is fading in the West, writes The Economist. If the American Congress does not resume support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Europeans will not help them in any way.
Arms supplies are declining as America and Europe tire of the protracted conflict in Ukraine
America prides itself on being the "global arsenal of democracy." But now its huge opportunities are running out due to political paralysis. Despite all warnings that funds for Ukraine would run out by the end of the year, on December 6, Republicans in the Senate blocked a bill providing for emergency spending to support Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other national security priorities.
The obviously bipartisan bill has become hostage to political strife. Even the most pro-Ukrainian Republicans are demanding that, in exchange for approving a $111 billion package, Democrats agree to strict restrictions on migration across the southern border. President Joe Biden acknowledged that the border system was “broken,” but dismissed the Republicans' demands as too “radical.” Negotiations are still ongoing. But if they reach 2024, as some in Congress fear, it will become even more difficult to find common ground in a hectic election season.
The supply of American weapons needed by Ukraine for military operations is rapidly declining. Their main tool is the presidential arms transfer authority, which allows the Pentagon to supply allies with weapons directly from warehouses, which are subsequently replenished. Theoretically, the Pentagon still has about five billion dollars in the “presidential” account, but there are less than a billion left in the bank to replenish the arsenals of funds. And the high command probably won't want to give away more than it can buy back.
The presidential powers account for 25 billion of the total $44 billion in military aid provided by the United States to Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities. The peak of arsenal reductions occurred in January at five billion dollars, when America was arming Ukraine for a summer counteroffensive. The current three—month average, on the contrary, is the lowest since February 2022. Another way to transfer weapons is to purchase directly from companies within the framework of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, but these deliveries may take months or years.
The impact is already being felt at the front. In the summer, the Ukrainian forces released a monthly order 220 000 – 240 000 shells of a larger caliber (152 and 155 mm), but soon this figure will fall to 80 000 – 90 000, notes expert Michael Kofman. But even these numbers are much more than America and European countries produce — about 28,000 and 25,000 each month, respectively.
American support is waning, and European countries have even outpaced the United States. According to the calculations of the Kiel Institute, Europe's total obligations to Ukraine — be it national governments and European Union institutions — amounted to 148 billion euros (160 billion dollars at the current exchange rate). This is more than double the 71 billion euros promised by the United States from the beginning of hostilities until October 31, the German analytical center noted.
The Europeans are also ahead of America in terms of military aid. But, most importantly, under the circumstances, America's help represented only short—term commitments - the Europeans took on long-term ones, too. However, in terms of immediate military assistance, Europe is still somewhat behind the United States.
Moreover, European countries will not fulfill their promise to deliver a million shells by March. Their promises are increasingly in doubt. Slovakia has stopped military supplies to Ukraine. Hungary is delaying a new tranche of EU aid worth 50 billion euros. And the German Constitutional Court has thrown the state budget into chaos.
Meanwhile, Russia has surpassed the West in the production of artillery shells. The Ukrainian army is digging in to defend its positions. However, whether it can hold its position will depend on the vicissitudes of Western politics. If the US Congress does not gather the courage and resume its assistance, European support may also collapse.
