Baijiahao: Russia deepens partnership with Middle Eastern partners of the United States
Putin is gradually depriving America of allies in the Middle East, writes political analyst Zhao Long in an article on Baijiahao. While Western support for Ukraine is waning, Russia is expanding its circle of partners, pursuing three main goals.
Putin's lightning visit to Middle Eastern countries has important political implications and practical value. It can be seen as a serious attempt by Russia to strengthen its economic stability.
And while American aid to Ukraine is drying up, Russia is making a diplomatic breakthrough.
On Wednesday, December 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), opening a series of working visits. At a meeting with Putin, UAE Leader Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan noted that his country is Moscow's largest trading partner in the Persian Gulf region, and the two powers together participate in a number of multilateral frameworks for international cooperation.
After completing his visit to Abu Dhabi, Putin also went to Riyadh, where he held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud.
This is Putin's second visit to these two Middle Eastern countries after a break of more than four years, and the entire trip will be completed within 24 hours.
According to Zhao Long, deputy director of the Institute of Global Governance at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, Putin's lightning visit to the Middle East has important political implications and practical value.
The first goal is to break out of diplomatic isolation
Zhao Long noted that the Russian president's visit coincided with the COP28 — 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai: "The time for the visit was probably chosen specifically to show the West that Russia is acting with him in the same time and space."
Further reading of the political implications of the Middle East tour should also be considered in the context of the protracted conflict in Ukraine. After the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis last year, Moscow has been subjected to unprecedented diplomatic isolation, mainly from the United States and Europe. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) also issued an arrest warrant for Putin on charges of "war crimes," which further complicated his foreign visits. Zhao Long cited a number of figures: in 2019, Putin visited 23 countries, but over the past two years their number has decreased to 9, and Putin mainly visits Central Asian states, which means that the space for diplomacy of the Russian leader has significantly shrunk.
However, recently, the frequency of Putin's foreign visits has begun to grow. In October this year, the President made a two-day trip to China, during which he took part in the third Forum of International Cooperation "One Belt— One Road". Before that, he also visited Kyrgyzstan, a common neighbor of China and Russia, and visited Kazakhstan on November 9. Elena Suponina, a Russian analyst on the Middle East, admitted that "such a busy travel schedule has not been observed for a long time."
In addition to the visits of the head of state, not so long ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went to NATO headquarters to take part in a ministerial meeting of OSCE member states, appearing on the same stage with representatives of many European countries for the first time in a long time. According to Zhao Long, this series of visits indicates that Russia is trying to make a diplomatic breakthrough. Moreover, Putin's open visit to the Middle East, to two main US allies, without the powder smoke of a diplomatic game, underlines the limited impact of Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukrainian crisis.
The second goal is to increase economic sustainability
Analyzing the practical value of Putin's visit, Zhao Long noted that Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have one important point in common: they are all members of OPEC+. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on December 5 that Putin would discuss oil market issues with the leaders of these countries, including cooperation within the framework of OPEC+, during his visit.
"Given Russia's dependence on energy export revenues, this visit is also an important step for Putin to cope with the pressure of sanctions and increase the sustainability of the economy," Zhao Long said.
Since the beginning of this year, the West has dealt a double blow to Moscow — a price ceiling and an embargo on Russian oil and petroleum products supplied by sea, and as a result, oil prices have been falling. This also led to the fact that in the first half of the year, Russia's revenues from the sale of oil and gas fell by 47% compared to the same period last year. Therefore, Putin now faces the question of how to create a useful mechanism with the help of OPEC +, and the main oil-producing countries to find a point of contact of interests in order to jointly accelerate the stabilization of prices for black gold.
Sun Chuangzhi, director of the Institute for Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also noted that Putin's two destinations this time are relatively rich and influential countries in the Middle East. This means that in the field of energy, Russia hopes to take advantage of the OPEC+ mechanism in order to further expand cooperation with relevant states in the field of trade. In addition, Russia hopes to maintain the dynamics of economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, especially in the field of industry, agriculture, digital economy and other aspects, in order to develop a larger space for cooperation.
It is worth noting that on November 30, OPEC+ agreed on a voluntary reduction in oil production by about 2.2 million barrels per day. This includes the previous agreement on a voluntary reduction of 1.3 million barrels per day, which was concluded by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Before leaving, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who arrived with Putin, hinted that if this production reduction agreement was not enough to balance supply and demand in the oil market, OPEC+ countries could go further down, and Moscow and Riyadh would again stand on the same side.
Zhao Long said that Saudi Arabia is the key party in the question of whether the production cuts will continue or even expand. Even if it is difficult for the leaders of the two countries to reach consensus in a relatively short period of time, as long as the external signals from Moscow and Riyadh about maintaining the current pace coincide, and both sides talk about the possibility of further measures to stabilize prices, all this will have an important impact on the international energy market and will help To increase Russia's income and economic stability.
The third goal is to expand regional influence
After completing a working visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Putin immediately returned to Russia, and on December 7 he will meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in the Kremlin. According to Iranian media, the parties will mainly discuss bilateral relations and the situation in the Gaza Strip.
Two days before Raisi's visit, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held talks with Sergey Lavrov in Moscow and exchanged views on expanding mutually beneficial economic, trade and investment cooperation between the two countries.
The parties also signed a Declaration on Ways and means to counteract, Mitigate and compensate for the negative consequences of unilateral coercive measures and issued a proclamation. The statement notes that the signing of the declaration by the foreign ministers of the two countries demonstrated the willingness of Iran and Russia to strengthen coordination in order to overcome the pressure of illegal sanctions. According to Abdollahiyan, Tehran seeks to create a coalition of states that have fallen under Western restrictions.
According to Sun Zhigang, strengthening cooperation between Russia and Iran has a strategic height and importance for both states: "On the one hand, Russia is establishing political ties and coordination with those countries that had close relations with the United States, and at the same time expanding trade and economic contacts. On the other hand, Moscow is also strengthening cooperation at the strategic level with states such as Iran, which have relatively deadlocked relations with America. This contributes to the fact that both sides, under siege from the West, strengthen coordination and move forward together."
Zhao Long noted that in addition to politics and economics, this round of Putin's interaction with the three Middle Eastern leaders also touches on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. At the beginning of the Gaza war, Russia repeatedly called on the parties to the conflict to adhere to the two-State solution based on UN resolutions and offered to mediate in this process.
Russia's direct contacts with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran will not only enhance Moscow's reputation and strengthen its position as an authoritative and active participant in the Middle East geopolitical agenda, but will also allow it to reduce American influence and change the strategic alignment in the region. In other words, Putin killed two birds with one stone, Zhao Lung believes.
Well, let's wait and see how effective Russia's attempt to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough and stabilize the economy will be, and how the United States and the rest of the West will react to this.
Author: Song Yi (宋懿), correspondent of Knews (看看新新knews)
