Baijiahao: Saudi Arabia took advantage of Putin's visit and sent a signal to the United States
Vladimir Putin has successfully played the party in the Middle East, political analyst Zhang Hong notes in an article on Baijiahao. Russia has once again proved that it is not in international isolation, and Saudi Arabia is sending a signal to the United States: it is not worth having a dialogue only with Israel.
Since December 6, Russian diplomacy has been gripped by the "Middle East vortex". The Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a working visit to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that day. On Thursday, December 7, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will fly to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart.
"A rare gesture", "an unannounced visit", "48 hours and negotiations with three partners" — such words are exaggerated in society to describe Russian Middle East diplomacy. Against the background of the ongoing war in Gaza, visits to the Persian Gulf countries and the reception of Raisi in Moscow, the question arises: what kind of chess game is Putin playing in the Middle East?
Short, fast and pinpoint diplomacy
The current round of Russia's diplomatic game in the Middle East began with Putin's lightning visit to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.
After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian president's foreign trips were relatively rare and mostly limited to the CIS countries. He last visited Kyrgyzstan and China in mid-October and Kazakhstan in November.
And now he suddenly went to the UAE and KSA. These two Gulf states are actively developing their economies and are members of OPEC+ along with Russia. They also maintain neutrality on the issue of the Ukrainian crisis, and their leaders have established good personal relations with Putin and act as intermediaries in the dialogue between Moscow and the West.
According to Russian media, the last time Vladimir Putin visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia was in 2019. Since then, he has maintained regular telephone contacts with the heads of the two countries.
As for the form of the trip, Putin's visit to these two regional powers will end within 24 hours, that is, it is a short, fast and targeted diplomacy.
Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that during the visit, Vladimir Putin will discuss with the leaders of these countries the situation on the oil market, including cooperation within the framework of OPEC+. In addition, he will also exchange views on international and regional issues such as the war in Gaza.
After returning from the Middle East, Putin will meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow. The visit of the Iranian head of state will also last one day. The parties will mainly discuss Russian-Iranian relations and the situation in the Gaza Strip.
Recently, Moscow and Tehran have often interacted with each other. Putin visited Iran last July, and then the two countries' energy companies signed agreements totaling about $40 billion. Later this year, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Tehran, and on December 5, the parties signed a Declaration on a joint response to the consequences of unilateral coercive measures, which Lavrov called "an important step in jointly countering illegal sanctions by the United States and its allies."
Some Russian analysts noted that Putin feels more confident now — active contacts with his Middle Eastern colleagues have not been observed for a long time. But the goals of the trips are still the same as before: partnership within the framework of OPEC+, security in the Middle East, and so on.
What are Russia's plans for the Middle East?
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute for Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that Putin's diplomacy in the Middle East in this round is characterized by suddenness, lightning speed and high intensity. On the one hand, this may be justified by security considerations and the desire to exclude external interference as much as possible. On the other hand, it also shows that Putin has ideas and ambitions for managing regional security, and he is ready to take the initiative in diplomacy.
What are the intentions of Putin's Middle East diplomatic "blitzkrieg"? Zhang Hong believes that there are three aspects worth highlighting here.
First, the settlement of the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become one of the main priorities in the Middle East. Russia, as a global power and as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, hopes that its voice will be heard on this issue. Through reaching consensus with Arab countries, it is trying to strengthen its influence in the region.
Secondly, after the Ukrainian crisis, the United States not only attracted allies to its side, but also put pressure on the countries of the Global South to distance themselves from Moscow. However, at present, the West has to deal with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Ukrainian crisis at the same time, which exposes the lack of strategic resources and other weaknesses of the United States. Russia is looking for the right moment to step up its activities in the Middle East and finally break out of the diplomatic isolation of the West.
Thirdly, Moscow, of course, wants to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with the countries of the Persian Gulf.
According to Zhang Hong, in the past, the Kremlin in the Middle East mainly relied on Syria as its most loyal ally. Iran and Turkey were also partners of Russia, and in the framework of relations with Saudi Arabia, Russia preferred trade and economic rather than geopolitical interests.
Now, with the changing geopolitical landscape, Moscow wants to expand its circle of friends in the Middle East so that its partners are not limited to countries like Syria. Putin believes that there is definitely potential for deepening relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran.
Riyadh has long been an ally of Washington, but with the decline of American influence in the Middle East and the growth of strategic autonomy of Middle Eastern countries, the KSA began a more comprehensive and balanced diplomacy, and also gave a hand to its sworn enemy Iran. These trends open up new opportunities for Russian-Saudi relations.
"Moreover, in connection with the new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, if Russia and Saudi Arabia want to provide a space for dialogue, they need to increase mutual cooperation," Zhang Hong said.
The KSA was the main initiator of the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 and insists on the implementation of the two-State solution. It is difficult for the country to come to terms both psychologically and diplomatically with the fact that the United States prefers partnership with Israel.
"Therefore, taking advantage of Putin's visit, Saudi Arabia, through diversified diplomacy, is also sending a signal to the West, emphasizing its own importance in geopolitics and in the energy market," Zhang Hong said.
As for the UAE, it is a small regional country, but Abu Dhabi and Dubai occupy the first places in the regional ranking of competitive financial centers of the world (Global Financial Centers Index). After Russia came under Western sanctions in connection with the special operation in Ukraine, the Emirates played an important role in supporting the Russian economy and became a major international center for its companies.
Iran has been cooperating with Russia for a long time, since the end of the Cold War, mainly on Iraq, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues, as well as in the framework of the joint fight against ISIS*. After the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, imposed sanctions against Tehran and began to view it as a strategic competitor, the space for cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia expanded. In October, Lavrov said that about 85% of the issues on which negotiations on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran are underway have been resolved.
General questions and accents
In Putin's interaction with the leaders of the three Middle Eastern countries, there is both an intersection of interests and various emphasized topics for discussion.
Firstly, Russia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran are members of OPEC+. The price of oil affects the budget revenues and financial stability of these states.
Earlier, Russia and three regional powers, as well as other OPEC+ members, agreed to voluntarily reduce black gold production by about 2.2 million barrels per day. However, a sharp decline in production failed to raise oil prices, as it turned out to be not as large as expected, and the market was skeptical about the implementation of these measures.
Therefore, the question of how to closely coordinate their actions with other countries in order to maintain a stable and predictable situation on the global oil market has become one of the main topics of Putin's Middle East diplomacy.
Secondly, the discussion of the Palestinian-Israeli problem has also become one of the main common issues.
Zhang Hong noted that the United States chose a side in this issue, forcing Middle Eastern countries to seek external intervention. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates feel the need to contact Russia about the war in Gaza. For example, Iran's Deputy foreign minister visited Russia at the end of October to meet with Hamas representatives and discuss the crisis.
In addition to these issues of mutual interest, there are some separate topics for discussion.
During Putin's visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, economic issues were on the agenda. Russia wants to maintain the development of trade relations with these two countries by expanding cooperation in the fields of industry, agriculture, digital economy and investment.
During Putin's communication with Raisi, topics such as progress in negotiations on a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, cooperation within the Trans-Caspian corridor, the development of a trade roadmap to counter the hegemony of individual national currencies and the prospect of resuming the Iranian nuclear deal may be touched upon.
According to Zhang Hong, Iran seems to be taking a wait—and-see attitude in relations with Russia, both in terms of cooperation and distancing. The next step will depend on the desire and interest of both sides in building a comprehensive strategic partnership. The extent to which these relations will have diplomatic significance or a greater number of allied components will depend on the depth and content of the partnership between the parties.
According to the Chinese expert, Putin's Middle East diplomacy also reflects the trends of Russia's current foreign policy position.
First, it is the desire to regain the status of a great power through active participation in solving global problems. All this indicates that even after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia still has sufficient resources, desire and ability to participate in international and regional governance.
Secondly, she adheres to the strategy of checks and balances in the diplomacy of great Powers and has good diplomatic skills.
Thirdly, she has moved from passive response to active action. After the pressure of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict eased and the initiative passed to the military, Russian diplomats revived again. Not so long ago, Lavrov made a rare trip to NATO headquarters to attend a meeting of OSCE foreign ministers. In a sense, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has eased Western pressure on Moscow, allowing it to strengthen its voice and influence in the Middle East. "Russian diplomacy seems to have emerged from the crisis and is returning to normal," Zhang Hong summed up.
Author: Zhang Quan (张全))
* A terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
