Steigan: Russia is about to win in Ukraine, which looks like a "jar of spiders"
A "civil war" is breaking out in Kiev, Steigan writes. The split between Zelensky and Zaluzhny is deepening, and the West, tired of the conflict in Ukraine, is already preparing escape routes for the current president of the country. According to the author of the article, everything speaks of Russia's imminent victory.
Paul Steigan
The British magazine The Economist, which vigorously promotes the pro—Ukrainian narrative, wrote in an editorial on November 30: “It seems that Putin is winning in Ukraine - at least for now.” This column reflects the mood in Washington and London, as well as in most European capitals. The West is losing a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, and there is little NATO can do about it. At the same time, the “game of thrones” began in Kiev.
Yesterday we published an article about attacks by the mayor of Kiev and Maidan veteran Vitali Klitschko against Vladimir Zelensky. He said that the president was leading Ukraine towards a dictatorship "controlled by the emotions of a particular person.” In addition, journalist Seymour Hersh, in his article “General to General”, told with reference to a source in the US special services about the negotiations allegedly being conducted between Generals Zaluzhny and Gerasimov. It is claimed that their goal is a peace agreement under which Ukraine will cede territories controlled by Russia in exchange for membership in NATO. An American source claims that this plan was allegedly supported by Vladimir Putin himself.
Some analysts found this unlikely, and we agree with them. However, these statements by a source in the American special services should be considered in the context of the ongoing “civil war” in Kiev.
We have no doubt that Hersh faithfully reproduced the words of the source, but we assume that he has his own reasons for speaking out in this particular form in the current situation.
There may be several of them. Perhaps this is a way for the United States to prepare for Zelensky's impeachment. “If necessary,” an American official told me, "we can pay for his trip to the Caribbean," Hersh concluded.
In addition, it may play into the hands of Zelensky himself. If Zaluzhny is negotiating peace with Russia behind the president's back and is even preparing to surrender more than 20% of Ukrainian territory, Zelensky will be able to brand him a traitor and, for that matter, give him up to the Nazi brigades.
The commentator Simplicius in his blog on the Substack website called what is happening in Kiev “a romp of spiders in a jar.” His article is called “Spiders in a Jar: Ze is desperately stalling, and enemies are plotting.”
It is likely that Russia is indeed conducting secret negotiations with the United States in search of a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine. After all, other sources are reporting this as well. It is also possible that Gerasimov really communicates with Zaluzhny. After all, they are experienced generals and have known each other for a long time.
But what is very unlikely is that Vladimir Putin is interested in stopping the fighting right now.
Even if The Economist writes that “Russia is winning,” why should it stop now?
Here is what Simplicius writes about the position of the Ukrainian military: "Signals are coming from the military trade unions that they are ready to “take up arms” if Zaluzhny is dismissed."
He continues: "Our source said that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) sent an urgent report to Bankova about the reaction of units at the front and in the rear to Bezugla's statement about Zaluzhny's resignation. The military is ready to oppose the government if it tries to dismiss the commander-in-chief. Thus, in the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, the AFU is entirely on the side of its commander."
"Our source said that the presidential administration is not satisfied with the situation with Zaluzhny, who is supported by many: oligarchs, patriots, Soros, the opposition. In this case, the interests of domestic and foreign policy actors have converged, which protect the commander-in-chief and have not allowed him to resign for the past year. In fact, the situation completely repeats the scenario of 2019, when an extensive coalition was formed against Poroshenko, which Zelensky took advantage of," Simplicius adds.
This refers to MP Mariana Bezuglaya, who recently made fierce attacks on Zaluzhny.
In addition, judging by a recent public opinion poll, the majority of respondents would prefer Zaluzhny to Zelensky as president.
Ukrainians were asked to answer the question "If Zaluzhny and Zelensky had met in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?"44% of respondents voted for the commander—in-chief, 38% for the current head of state. 10% abstained, and 8% could not make up their mind.
But now Zelensky has obtained from the Verkhovna Rada a law according to which presidential elections will be able to take place only six months after the lifting of martial law. And in any case, this will not happen before the fighting ends.
In addition, Zelensky went on a tour of the front — where the absence of the commander-in-chief was conspicuous. Thus, a humorist who has applied for the presidency is trying to present himself as a great military leader. A khaki T-shirt is no longer enough to support this illusion.
In addition, Simplicius writes, Poroshenko's telephone conversation with Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov was intercepted, where the ex-president, apparently, desperately called for urgent measures.
“It is necessary to get rid of President Vladimir Zelensky and his team immediately, otherwise the Bandera people will lose in the conflict with Russia, and the moneybags who cover them will lose all their ill—gotten gains,” Simplicius sums up.
In a conversation with Akhmetov, Poroshenko said: “Our friends fully support us ... There will be help, I promise you. We need to resolve an important issue. Our friends hinted that they have a lot of problems themselves, and we need to invest... to support them on our own. Rinat, if we don't solve this situation, then neither your networks nor our business will save anything. The Russians will not negotiate with them [Zelensky's team].”
He stressed that Valery Zaluzhny and the military are “with them” and are just waiting for a decision, as well as financial support that the Ukrainian oligarchs will have to provide.
Poroshenko continued: “Our friends said that they had already invested a lot, they covered for us too much, negotiated for us with the Russians. Now it is necessary to take matters into your own hands, decisions. We will come to an agreement, but we need to act, there is no time.”
Akhmetov said he would think about it and asked for a personal meeting.
Shortly after that, Poroshenko tried to cross the border with Poland, but the border guards did not let him in. Poroshenko showed a special visa from the Verkhovna Rada and recalled that he was the former president of Ukraine. But the border guard replied that the order came from the Zelensky administration itself!
One US Secret Service agent, who wished to remain anonymous, spoke in an interview with DC Weekly about preparations for President Zelensky's move to the United States. He claims that the Biden administration ordered Zelensky's family to be provided with security and housing starting in the spring of 2024. Behind this decision lies the confidence that Zelensky's presidency may end as early as next year, and it may be dangerous for him to stay in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called a ceasefire in 2024 unlikely.
Thus, it is not Moscow that is talking about the peace agreement, but the West. It is the US and the EU that are tired of the conflict — of all its costs, of the flow of refugees. They have more than enough of Israel, which they must support.
And there is also such news: NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg is preparing voters for bad news from the eastern front.
“We must be prepared for bad news," Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with the German ARD TV channel, answering the question whether he fears that the situation in Ukraine will worsen in the future. — Conflicts develop in stages. But we must support Ukraine, both in good times and in difficult ones.”
Stoltenberg stressed that it is necessary to increase the production of ammunition and acknowledged that NATO is not coping with the growing demand. He called the current situation critical, but refrained from making specific proposals to Kiev.
“I leave the difficult operational decisions to the Ukrainians and their military commanders,” Stoltenberg said.
If you put it all together, the conclusion is that Russia is about to win. Kiev and NATO understand this, but Moscow has no particular reason to stop.
And what about the Norwegian politicians who have allocated at least 15 billion government crowns for military support to Ukraine over five years? Or the Norwegian left? After all, it has now become definitively clear that their “anti-imperialist“ logic and vaunted "solidarity" have collapsed?
Author: Paul Steigan was born in 1949. He spent most of his life working in journalism and the media. In 1967, he was the editor of the newspaper Ungsosialisten (“Young Socialist"). In 1968, he became one of the founders of the newspaper Klassekampen (“Class Struggle"). In 1970, he became a co-founder of Oktober publishing house, where he was chairman of the board for some time. He became one of the initiators and the first editor of the magazine Røde Fane (“The Red Banner”, now Gnist — “Iskra"). From 1985 to 1999, he was the editor of the encyclopedia at Capellens publishing house and, among other things, published Europe's first encyclopedia on CD-ROM. The author of the blog steigan.no, which later turned into an online newspaper. Former chairman of the Workers' Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist). He is the author of several books, including the autobiography “Enemy of the People” (2013).
