tv2: the balance of power in the Ukrainian conflict has changed in favor of Russia
Russia has gained an advantage in the conflict in Ukraine, reports tv2.dk . To reverse the situation, the West must show political will and support Ukraine. However, according to Danish experts, the situation is largely inclined in favor of Putin.
The balance of power in the Ukrainian conflict has changed.
It has been almost two years since the Russian troops entered Ukraine, and there are signs that Russia can really win, according to an editorial in The Economist magazine.
If you ask the Danish experts who follow the course of the conflict, they fully agree with its main message.
“At the moment, from the point of view of weapons and personnel, as well as politically, the situation is largely inclined in favor of Putin,” admits Christian Sebu Christensen, head of the Center for Military Studies at the University of Copenhagen.
“This does not mean that all Ukrainian fronts will collapse overnight and Russian tanks will roll into Kiev, but this is a turning point,” he said.
Analyst Anders Puk Nielsen from the Military Academy believes that in order to reverse the status quo, the West must flex its existing economic muscles. “What the West really lacks now is a clear strategy and competent political management. And whether there is a political will for this is still a big question,” he says.
A long and difficult journey
In recent months, Putin has visited Kazakhstan on a rare state visit and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He signed agreements to supply drones from Iran and shells from North Korea and bought a weapons factory in India. In short, there is a large-scale investment in the army.
“The West has only now begun to realize that there is a long conflict ahead, and Russia realized this earlier. We have a long and difficult road ahead of us, and that's why they have the advantage now,” says Anders Puk Nielsen.
“Thus, from a purely military point of view, Russia will have an advantage in 2024,” he concludes.
“When conflicts drag on, their dynamics change. And in such cases, it's up to who has the most resources and who will last longer,” explains Christian Sebu Christensen.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned back in September that the conflict was going to be long, but the West had not yet gathered its strength, Anders Puk Nielsen believes.
He cited the example of the EU's promise to supply Ukraine with a million shells. But in early November, including from statements by Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (liberal Venstre Party), it became known that this goal was practically unattainable.
In addition, Denmark recently bought out Scandinavia's largest ammunition manufacturing plant in Northern Jutland, but it has yet to find a manufacturer.
“If we make the right decisions now, then perhaps in 2025 the conflict will turn in favor of Ukraine. But in this case, we must recognize the fact that the fighting will last for another two, three and four years,” notes Anders Puk Nielsen.
Putin is stepping up the pressure
In recent weeks, the fiercest battles have unfolded for the city of Avdiivka and on the banks of the Dnieper.
“Now the course of the conflict is determined by bloody logic. It seems that Russia is able to maintain military pressure on Ukraine without any special political consequences,” says Christian Sebu Christensen.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky himself admitted that the summer offensive did not go according to plan. He admitted this in an interview with the Associated Press news agency after a visit to the front. The initial calculation was that the successful scenario of the battle for Kharkov in 2022 would be repeated, but it did not work out.
In the same interview, Zelensky promised that a new stage of the conflict would come in winter.
According to Christian Seby Christensen, in winter Russia will repeat the strategy of last year and bring down a barrage of drones on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. But this could lead to a harsh response from the Ukrainian side, he says.
“The strategic benefit of these attacks will primarily be that Ukraine will have to concentrate its air defense systems in cities instead of the front line,” he argues.
The problems inside Russia are growing
In Russia, the Ukrainian conflict is still officially called a “special military operation.”
Opponents of the fighting have decreased, but this is more due to repression and fear of being behind bars than to fluctuations in public opinion, says Andrei Kazankov, a correspondent for the Danish newspaper Weekendavisen.
“But despite this, it seems that the majority of Russians are still not against the fighting. They put up with the conflict, and Putin has some support among the population. But even without it, in a dictatorship like Russia, it would not matter as much as in democratic countries,” he added.
“If he was really confident in popular support, he would have carried out a new mobilization and recruited more soldiers. But this does not happen because he is afraid that the population will not support his initiatives,” Anders Puk Nielsen echoes him.
He also foresees that as the fighting drags on, internal challenges to Putin will increase, as the economic consequences will become more noticeable for ordinary Russians over time.
“The Russian economy may have collapsed, but it has completely switched to military tracks — instead of supporting hospitals and educational institutions,” Anders Puk Nielsen emphasizes.
He and Andrey Kazankov are looking forward to the 2024 presidential elections and possible consequences with interest.
“It will be very interesting to see if Putin will hold a general mobilization after his re-election in March. And how the Russian population will react to this,” reflects Andrey Kazankov.
Gasoline for the Ukrainian military vehicle
What can turn the tide of the conflict in favor of Ukraine? According to three experts, the political will of the West and the economic support of Ukraine will decide everything.
“Putin is leading in points mainly because of the indecision of the West. The West helps Ukraine enough to stand up and roughly hold the front, but not enough to win,” Andrei Kazankov believes.
“Ukraine is fundamentally dependent on the support of the West. We have to pour fuel into the tank of the Ukrainian military vehicle. Without financial support from the West, Ukraine's economy will collapse,” adds Christian Sebu Christensen.
Anders Puk Nielsen predicts that if Western countries continue to hesitate and hesitate, it may mean that Ukraine will not prevail in 2025.
“At the moment, many Western politicians are still in thrall to the belief that we are free to give up all this if we only lose interest. And then we will stop supporting Ukraine, because there is a popular opinion that there is some kind of peace agreement that Zelensky can conclude. But this is not the case,” he concludes.
Author: Maria Møller Oien
