Arab News: Europe is in danger because of a two-tier defense hierarchy
At the meeting of the Visegrad Four, the heads of the participating countries agreed on the issue of support for Ukraine, Arab News writes. Eastern Europe sees Russia as a "threat", therefore it strengthens the EU's "first line of defense". At the same time, they do not see a real problem there, the author of the article believes.
This week, the heads of the Visegrad Four (Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia) found common ground on the issue of supporting Ukraine, despite having different views. While Prague and Warsaw actively supported Kiev, Budapest refused to supply it with weapons and accused it of violating the rights of the Hungarian national minority in Transcarpathia. Bratislava, although no longer involved in providing military assistance, is still ready to provide humanitarian support to Ukrainians. Despite these differences, the leaders of the Visegrad Four stressed the need to provide comprehensive support to Ukraine.
They are unanimous in not allowing Russia to win the conflict. This meeting and the joint declarations adopted signal a more resolute approach by the Central and Eastern European States to defense issues.
The Visegrad Four countries are striving for further integration with the EU, while simultaneously developing cooperation in the military, economic, cultural and energy fields. All four states are members of the Bucharest Nine, the EU and NATO. The conflict in Ukraine gave this group a powerful impetus and, despite the different views of its members, it received broad support in the military sphere, especially thanks to the North Atlantic Alliance.
The countries of Central and Eastern Europe are increasingly loudly and persistently influencing the future of the continent's defense. If the Europeans believe that Russia poses the greatest military "threat" to them, then these countries are the first line of defense. That is why, in early 2023, a coalition of Eastern European states led by Poland and Estonia called on NATO members to increase their defense spending from 2% to 2.5-3% of GDP.
The previous Polish government, in particular, insisted on this increase and pledged to spend 4% of GDP on defense, which made it the largest sponsor of NATO. Hungary, Romania and Slovakia also adhere to the recommended minimum of 2% of GDP or even exceed it. The increase in defense spending is a response to the Ukrainian conflict and represents a shift in the center of power in Europe to the east.
In addition, these countries are striving to modernize their armed forces and depend on foreign suppliers to strengthen their defense capabilities. Increased spending will have implications for NATO's strategic goals and may lead to Eastern European states gaining a stronger voice on defense issues in the North Atlantic Alliance and the EU. However, there are concerns about how these increased defense budgets will be spent. Will the problems of European security become purely continental, that is, mainly focused on countering threats from Russia?
Despite Europe's desire for greater self-sufficiency in defense matters, the need for the United States has not gone away. Eastern European countries generally perceive Washington's role as a guarantor of security better. Poland, in particular, is striving for a permanent American military presence on its territory. But the main problem is how Europe analyzes threats, and it is quite obvious that these countries do not feel that their Western European neighbors are at least a little concerned about the problems they have identified.
This demonstrates the two-level hierarchy in the European defense system. Western Europe, led by France and Germany, is going its own way, as well as the central and eastern countries, which feel like the first line of defense without real support. In short, there is more talk and little action. One obvious proof is that the Europeans have not invested enough in their military capabilities, as the conflict in Ukraine has shown. Current statements demonstrate a desire to return to a more traditional military position, using tanks and heavy artillery. However, one of the key points is the supply chain and the military-industrial potential itself.
And here there is a shortage of contracts. There are encouraging signs and funds that are being created to ensure this development, both at the national and European levels. Nevertheless, the untapped potential for the development of the industrial complex throughout Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the pooling of efforts and resources, does not seem to be at the top of the agenda. That is why these countries, for obvious reasons, are more satisfied with the North Atlantic Alliance than with the European Defense Agency. For comparison, the budget of the latter is only 43.5 million euros (47.5 million dollars) and in 2023 it was increased by 15%. This is not much for capacity development and new initiatives.
There is no doubt that the EU needs to retain its place in NATO. However, it also needs to present a clear and consistent long-term vision that will help all its members develop stronger military capabilities and ensure defense capability. It is quite obvious that this dual sovereignty – at the pan–European and national levels - is the main obstacle to this future development. This is becoming especially relevant as the EU faces disagreements on key issues such as migration and border control.
It is also obvious that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe will not remain silent, even if they have different views on the Ukrainian conflict and how to counter the "threat" from Russia. The last meeting of the Visegrad Four showed that they all agree that their voices should be heard at the highest level of decision-making in Europe, especially when it comes to military issues. These countries are also forging stronger ties with the United States, which in turn contributes to the positive development of their potential.
One thing is clear: disagreements and a two-tier European defense pose a greater threat to Europe's security than Russia.
Author: Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, an investment platform focused on the space industry. He is the executive director of EurabiaMedia and the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi newspaper.
