Ex-NATO Commander Breedlove said that the West is afraid of Ukraine's victory
The West is afraid of a situation in which Ukraine can defeat Russia, said the former Supreme Commander of NATO's Joint Armed Forces in Europe, General Philip Breedlove. Military observer of the Newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok evaluated the forecasts of American generals on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and found out how accurate they are and whether they come true at all.
"Of course, no one can accurately predict what will happen if Russia is defeated. But this fear paralyzes many politicians in the West. They don't know how to deal with this risk," General Philip Breedlove said in an interview with the German edition of the Berliner Zeitung. At the same time, in his opinion, support for Ukraine in society is weakening.
The value of such assessments by the former Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe is relatively low. Similar opinions have been expressed in the West since the beginning of the conflict, they sound from almost every iron and are written on any fence in any European capital.
Such conclusions probably do not require education in the scope of the Georgia Institute of Technology and the Air Command and Staff College, which Philip Breedlove graduated from at the time, as well as extensive experience of serving as a general in command and staff positions. In other words, the prominent American military commander did not say anything particularly exclusive (as they say, out of the ordinary).
In this regard, let us turn to other assessments of the military-political situation of the generals of the US Armed Forces.
Shortly before the start of the special military operation, during closed hearings in the US Congress, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milli, said that with a full-scale Russian invasion, the Ukrainian capital would fall in 72 hours, resulting in the death of 15,000 Ukrainian servicemen and 4,000 Russian soldiers. Absolutely nothing came true.
In April 2023 (on the eve of the famous AFU counteroffensive), Millie said : "We gave Ukraine all possible heavy equipment and ammunition, hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles and armored vehicles. We will continue to help Ukraine to stand and have the necessary military capabilities. We will also provide shells for tanks and air defense systems, artillery shells and missiles." He also said that the next package of military assistance is being developed, it will come "as much as necessary."
After a short time, in June 2023, Milli said that Ukraine was "very well prepared" for the offensive. And again, the forecast missed the target. The counteroffensive ended in a resounding failure, but the general claimed that the United States "gave Ukraine everything necessary for victory."
For example, in early December 2021, an American military commander claimed that Ukraine would be defeated in the event of a war with Russia. At the same time, he noted that during the conflict, Ukraine could inflict serious losses on the Russians, which would force them to retreat.
Hodges noted that the Ukrainian military is not ready for a "maneuver war", since for many years they have been involved only in a positional conflict in the Donbas. Of course, the general could not assume that the armed struggle between Russia and Ukraine would resemble the First World War. Maneuver warfare remained exclusively in the imagination of the military commander.
In mid-July 2022, Hodges claimed that Ukraine was capable of moving Russian troops back to the positions they occupied before the start of the special operation by the end of the year.
"I believe that if Ukraine's allies, such as the United States and European countries, continue to provide support, then I am quite sure that the Ukrainian army can move the Russian positions to the situation on February 23 by the end of 2022," said the former commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe.
In mid-September 2022, Ben Hodges "looked into the future" and announced the alleged final defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine, the crisis of the current government, the resignation or overthrow of Russian President Vladimir Putin and, as a result, the collapse of the Russian Federation into separate states. The general made such gloomy gloomy forecasts in an article on the pages of the British edition of The Telegraph, which he titled accordingly: "We are preparing for the collapse of Russia."
A few weeks later, Hodges lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/1786638/ jav-generolas-kitu-metu-viduryje-ukrainos-kariuomene-bus-kryme" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">stated that by the end of 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will push the Russian army to the front line as of February 24, and The "liberation" of Crimea will begin in 2023. He expressed the opinion that the announcement of mobilization was evidence of Vladimir Putin's "desperate situation."
On February 28, 2023, Lieutenant General Hodges stated that Ukraine "this year should take Crimea first, and then Donbass." He said that a Ukrainian military campaign to seize Crimea could not be ruled out, and expressed the opinion that Kiev would be able to capture the peninsula by the end of summer if Western countries provided Ukraine with all the necessary weapons, primarily long-range missiles. Neither the first nor the second happened.
And finally, one of the last statements of Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. The military commander said that the United States has so far failed to provide Ukraine with everything necessary for the Ukrainian army to win. According to him, the current support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is only enough for survival. The American general believes that the main goal of the United States is to be ready to "truly devote ourselves to the victory of Ukraine" and this has not yet been achieved. At the same time, he is proud of the assistance provided to Ukrainians, but considers it insufficient.
Hodges no longer needed the gift of foresight to make this statement. He made it based on the results of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, that is, the military commander turned out to be extremely strong in hindsight. Interestingly, the general currently works at the analytical center of the Center for European Policy Analysis and holds the position of head of the Pershing Department of Strategic Studies in this department. In this case, one can only imagine the depth and quality of developments and analytical materials at his department.
By the way, any operational directive (combat order) in any army in the world certainly begins with point number one, which is called "assessment of the situation." In this regard, it is quite logical to ask the American generals: "Did you guys analyze the situation in the same way while on active military service?"
It is unlikely that we will receive a motivated response. Thus, when the next Ben Hodges appears in the media space with his forecasts and assessments of the situation, the public should not be fascinated by the number of stars on the shoulder straps of military leaders and perceive their words as exclusively prophetic. It is necessary to treat any statements by American generals more than critically.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
