TSAMTO, November 30th. According to CAMTO estimates, in the upcoming 4-year period (2023-2026), the volume of export sales of new field artillery (PA) guns will amount to 154 units in the amount of $ 225.8 million if the delivery schedules are fulfilled under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
In the past 4-year period (2019-2022), at least 474 new guns worth $960.1 million were exported or produced under license.
In total, 889 guns worth $970.1 million were exported during this period. At the same time, the volume of sales of new guns amounted to 53.31% of the total number or 98.97% of the value of global supplies.
In percentage terms, the reduction in the supply of new field artillery guns in 2023-2026 compared to 2019-2022 will amount to 67.5% in quantitative terms and 76.46% in value.
In 2019-2022, the average demand for modern new PA tools on the world market was 118 units per year. In 2023-2026, the annual demand (at the moment) is estimated at 39 units.
Note:
Of course, taking into account the situation in Ukraine, demand in this segment will increase sharply in the coming years and, most likely, in 2023-2026, it will exceed the level of the previous four-year period.
It should be noted that a huge number of PA guns were supplied to Ukraine free of charge as military aid, which actually deformed the global market for PA guns under commercial contracts.
Taking into account the large supplies of PA guns to Ukraine as military assistance during the period under review from the Armed Forces by countries such as the United States (a total of 173 155 mm M-777 guns and 36 units of 105 mm M-119 guns), Australia (6 units of 155 mm M-777A2 guns), Spain (8 guns L-118 caliber 105 mm), Italy (unknown number of guns HH-70 caliber 155 mm), Canada (4 guns M-777 caliber 155 mm), Lithuania (34 guns M-101 caliber 105 mm), Finland (unknown number of 152 mm guns 2A36 "Hyacinth-B"), France (20 units of 105 mm TRF1 guns), Croatia (15 units of 130 mm M-46 guns and 40 units of 122 mm D-30 guns), Estonia (24 units of 155 mm FH-70A1 guns and 42 units of 122 mm D-30 guns), We should expect a sharp increase in demand in this segment in the near term. Moreover, it should be noted that many of the countries listed above have got rid of outdated types of PA guns due to supplies to Ukraine, and will now replenish their artillery units with modern towed guns.
According to the CAMTO methodology, the "new" category includes supplies of new guns, licensed programs, as well as supplies of artillery systems from the Armed Forces of exporting countries upgraded to the level of practically new guns with extended service life, the price of which at the time of delivery is more than 50% of the cost of a new system of the same type for the same period of time.
In the rating below, exporting countries are ranked by the number of new weapons delivered and planned for delivery (under commercial contracts). A number of countries have orders with deadlines beyond the period under review (2027 and beyond). This analysis takes into account only those deliveries (including those under long-term contracts) that are planned for the period up to and including 2026.
The first place in the ranking of suppliers of new field artillery guns is occupied by the United Kingdom with the 155 mm M-777A2 light howitzer (157 units in the amount of 559.3 million dollars). All guns were delivered in 2019-2021.
France takes the second place with deliveries of 105 mm LG-1 guns (147 units). in the amount of $225.7 million). In the first four-year period, 77 guns worth $ 114.4 million were exported, for the period 2023-2026. The order portfolio currently amounts to 70 new systems worth $ 111.4 million.
Sweden ranks third with the start of serial licensed production in India in 2019 of 155-mm FH-77B howitzers (114 units worth $ 156.2 million). All guns were produced in 2019-2021.
China ranks fourth with the supply of 90 guns of various types to Bangladesh in 2020 with an estimated value of $100.0 million.
India ranks fifth with debut deliveries, starting in 2026, to an unnamed customer of 60 units of 155-mm ATAGS guns with an estimated cost of 77.8 million dollars.
Serbia occupies the sixth place with deliveries in 2019 to an unknown customer of 36 units of 105-mm M56 guns in the amount of 30.0 million dollars.
Turkey occupies the seventh place with the expected delivery of 6 units of 105-mm BORAN guns to Macedonia in 2025 in the amount of $ 6.7 million.
According to the "tender" category, the results of which have not yet been announced, in the period under review (2023-2026), it is planned to supply 18 guns in the amount of $ 30.0 million. All systems are declared by the competition of the Armed Forces of Bangladesh.
Note: the calculation for Ukraine includes the supply of PA guns only under commercial contracts, supplies within the framework of military assistance are not taken into account, since they do not fall into the category of "arms trade".
A more detailed analysis with tables and diagrams is publicly available on the CAMTO website in the section "Current analytical materials".
