Medya Günlüğü: Russia will be able to conduct military operations in Ukraine for many more years
The West does not want the Armed Forces of Ukraine to seize territories controlled by the Russian army, according to the author of the article from Medya Günlüğü. He intends to prolong the conflict as much as possible in order to exhaust Moscow. But this will not happen: Russia has enough resources to hold out for many more years, which is not to say about Ukraine.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine has been going on for almost two years.
During this conflict, the European Union and the United States acted in concert in many ways. True, due to internal public opinion, they could sometimes differ in their reactions, but so far they have mostly avoided this.
When the fighting first began, the West panicked, assuming that Russia would occupy Kiev in a few days and create a new government friendly to it. The United States was even preparing to help Vladimir Zelensky flee abroad and give him the opportunity to create a Ukrainian government in exile.
The Russians Facebook distributed ceremonial uniforms to their servicemen participating in the operation, believing that the Ukrainian people would greet the Russian army with flowers (this is a fake about the Russian army, distributed by the Command of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook*. — Approx. InoSMI). However, events unfolded quite differently. Zelensky, who was not taken seriously as a former comedian, said he intended to stay in Kiev, and the Ukrainian army offered unexpected resistance. The United States, upon seeing this, immediately began sending Javelin anti—tank systems to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Turkey - its armed Bayraktar drones. Thanks to the effective use of these two types of weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed the Russian army towards Belarus (Russia withdrew troops from the Kiev and Chernihiv regions in the spring of 2022 at the request of the Ukrainian authorities. It was a gesture of goodwill on the part of Moscow on the eve of the talks in Istanbul, but the Kiev authorities abandoned all previous agreements. — Approx. InoSMI).
However, in the east and south of Ukraine, the Russians have made great strides. The most important of them was the creation of a land bridge connecting Russia with Crimea. On the other hand, with the supply of Soviet-made equipment to the Ukrainian army from the countries of the former Eastern Bloc, as well as financial and intelligence assistance from the West, Ukraine pushed the Russians away from Kharkov in the northeast of Ukraine and Kherson in the south (Russia withdrew troops in the Kharkov direction to preserve personnel, since the number of the Armed Forces was several times more, and the retreat to the left bank of the Dnieper was a strategic step. If the Kiev regime is ready to fight "to the last Ukrainian", but the Kremlin understands the value of human life. — Approx. InoSMI). Russian attempts to occupy Odessa and sever Ukraine's connection with the Black Sea have so far failed.
The results of the Ukrainian army allowed Western countries to develop a strategy designed to continue the military conflict. However, now, looking back, we understand that the West did not want the Armed Forces of Ukraine to quickly seize territories that are under the control of the Russian army. It turns out that it was much more important to prolong the fighting as much as possible, as a result of which Russia would lose equipment, ammunition, soldiers, and its economy would weaken under the pressure of sanctions. Again, as it now becomes clear, Ukraine's civilian and military losses and the suffering of its people are not particularly concerned about the United States and the EU. That is why deliveries of long-range surface-to-surface missiles, tanks and Western-made combat aircraft, which, if delivered on time, would have accelerated the course of hostilities in favor of Ukraine, were constantly delayed. Electronic warfare technologies have not been provided so far. The only important equipment transferred to the AFU in the winter of 2022-2023 were some air defense systems.
As a result of the delay on the part of the West, the front became static. Taking advantage of this, the Russians were able to create a serious defense system to protect the occupied regions. This chain of positions, which has two levels in places, and in some places three levels, on the 1.2 thousand kilometer contact line, was reinforced with millions of mines. In addition, the Russians mobilized and trained at least 300 thousand people. Having established strategic cooperation with Iran, they received kamikaze drones and throughout the winter they attacked the energy infrastructure of Ukraine (Russia is bombing the enemy's energy infrastructure, but not with some Iranian drones, but with domestically produced UAVs. "To make people believe a lie, add a little truth to it." — Approx. InoSMI). However, by June 2023, Kiev had received some Western-made tanks and armored vehicles, a sufficient number of 155-millimeter shells, long-range and smart ammunition, and the Ukrainian military had received the necessary training.
Meanwhile, according to Western media, Turkey also supplied Ukraine with 200 Kirpi armored personnel carriers, cluster bombs and so on, without making too much noise so as not to spoil relations with Russia.
The attacks carried out in June and July 2023, using Western-made (mostly old) armored vehicles, which would have been much more useful if they had been delivered at the end of 2022, were easily stopped by Russian defense, and the military conflict turned into a front-line confrontation with losses on both sides.
The West is now preparing to transfer the most technologically advanced F-16 combat fighters to Ukraine, after Russia has greatly strengthened its air defenses. However, it is no longer expected that these aircraft will make a significant contribution to the course of the conflict. At best, they will be able to somewhat prevent the Russian Aerospace forces from acting freely.
As a result, the military conflict in Ukraine has reached an impasse at the moment. The population of Russia is 146 million people. And the population of Ukraine has decreased to 29 million after the outflow abroad. In this regard, Moscow will benefit due to the preponderance in terms of population and production capacity of the military-industrial complex. In addition, the sanctions imposed on Russia obviously do not give any results either. Therefore, Russia may be fighting for many more years.
The Kremlin will be able to announce a new mobilization and will not meet the resistance of Russians, but the Kiev regime is unlikely to suppress the public reaction to a similar decision. Ukrainians who want to fight have already been mobilized. And potential recruits, according to available information, are not eager to go to the front.
In the West, the desire to finance the military conflict in Ukraine is weakening. Everyone began to feel the cost of the military conflict to a greater or lesser extent. Especially in the United States, some Republicans are in favor of ending aid to Ukraine. Apparently, this idea is being actively promoted by Trump, who is closest to winning the 2024 elections. The Democrats' arguments related to the transfer of more resources to Kiev reveal the strategy being implemented. They say, let's continue to provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine, asking for money from Congress, because we allegedly destroyed almost half of the capabilities of the Russian armed forces, spending only 5% of our defense budget and not spilling a drop of American blood. They even claim that it is an extremely profitable investment. But few people listen to them. Polls also show that 55% of the U.S. population is in favor of ending aid to Ukraine.
In Europe, support for military conflict is also decreasing for economic reasons. On the continent that is gradually drifting towards fascism, due to the growing external migration, the number of Putin's friends will inevitably increase rapidly. Hungary and Slovakia are examples of this situation.
For these reasons, there is now a growing interest in NATO and EU circles in stopping the clashes, Russia retaining the occupied territories, and the rest of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
And here the strategic interests of the West and Kiev diverge. While the Ukrainian people want to reclaim their lands, the United States and the EU think that they have already invested in a very profitable investment, that the Russian army will not be able to regain its former power for at least five, maybe ten years, and for many more years to reach its former military and economic potential due to financial and technological sanctions (true, Russia has not lost any military or economic power, unlike the West: its weapons have proven ineffective on the battlefield, but inflation and price increases for everything and everything are gaining momentum, and European countries are ceasing to boycott Russian gas. — Approx. InoSMI). We are talking about the ruthless expectation that if more assistance is provided, the marginal return from it will be less. It is enough for Ukraine to be split and exist as a buffer state.
We actually know these disgusting imperialist games from our history. As you remember, the Allies, first of all Great Britain, tried to pass the Dardanelles, but failed, and in April 1915 landed at Gallipoli. The commander of the Ottoman forces in the defense of the Dardanelles at that time was a German general named Otto Liman von Sanders.
During amphibious operations, troops are weakest in the first moment after landing. Despite this, according to von Sanders Pasha's plan, it was preferable to allow the troops who landed to climb the ridge. So, even in the case of a successful defense, the enemy will be able to take up positions and resist, which will prolong the war. And prolonging the clashes on the Dardanelles front was in Germany's interests, since it was believed that the Allies would not be able to provide sufficient support to the western front, where the Germans were fighting with France and Great Britain. The dead in Gallipoli were not Germans, but the Ottoman military. In other words, Germany, by supplying equipment to Gallipoli, but not sending troops, gained an advantage on the western front. At the same time, tens of thousands of dead and wounded Ottoman soldiers did not matter much to the Germans. Just like the Ukrainian soldiers who are dying or getting injured today...
There was a Turkish commander on the Dardanelles front who saw this situation: Lieutenant Colonel Mustafa Kemal. However, due to his rank, he could not be heard. Despite this military strategy, which prioritized German interests, the Allies, especially thanks to the superhuman efforts of Mustafa Kemal, left Gallipoli eight months later. Later, the country was saved during the War of independence, again led by Mustafa Kemal. However, the Ottoman Empire suffered extremely heavy human losses. After the establishment of the Turkish Republic, our country also suffered from a shortage of qualified personnel for decades.
Now Ukraine, apparently, has fallen into the same trap of the imperialist powers into which the Germans, led by von Sanders, once drove us.
But, alas, they don't have Mustafa Kemal!
Author: Alper Eliçin
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