Defense 24: the fate of Ukraine will be decided by the army
Failures at the front, ineffective mobilization, corruption and a reduction in military aid have led to the fact that Ukraine is now experiencing a turning point, writes Defense 24. As often happens in such situations, an army that enjoys confidence in the country can enter the political scene.
On October 27, rallies of families of Ukrainian servicemen were held in a number of cities of Ukraine. Their participants called on the authorities to establish the exact terms of service in the army. They, in particular, require rotation and the adoption of a law on the possibility of demobilization after 18 months of service. Rallies were held in Kiev, Odessa, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Krivoy Rog, Ternopil, Zaporozhye and a number of other cities. Mobilization is one of the main problems of the Ukrainian army. The number of evaders is constantly growing.
At the front, the vast majority of soldiers who were professional and mobilized in the first months of the conflict, as well as volunteer units, are fighting. There are problems with updating the data of conscripts.
Ineffective mobilization
Quoted by the service TSN.ua Deputy and member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Sergei Rakhmanin said that the military complain about problems with rotation, but currently there is no physical possibility for full rotation of brigades, because there are simply insufficient mobilization resources. Rakhmanin said that in this regard, the brigades are assigned to the second or third front line for 2-3 weeks to give them a little rest, to replenish their personnel and weapons minimally, and then go back to the combat zone. He says bluntly: "basically everyone who wanted to go to the front as a volunteer is already there."
According to the BBC portal, in October of this year, the average age of AFU soldiers at the front is more than 40 years. Currently, Ukrainians aged 18 to 27 are subject to conscription for military service, and persons over the age of 27 are entered in the military register of conscripts and are subject to mobilization. In other words, only men at least 27 years old can be mobilized in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov, it is necessary to find a "fine line" between the protection of the state and the loss of the future after the victory. "Of course, only 40-50-year-old soldiers are not enough for combat operations, for assaults. But sending young people means a further demographic crisis, which will have a negative impact in the future," he explains in an interview with the BBC Ukrainian Service. In May, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted draft No. 9281, which provides for reducing the maximum age of men subject to registration in the military register of conscripts from 27 to 25 years. This means that the age of conscription in Ukraine has decreased to 25 years, but in practice this is not implemented.
Demoralization of the army – the growth of crime
There are also signs of demoralization in the Ukrainian army, which leads to an increase in crime among soldiers. According to the statistics of the Prosecutor General's Office, in 2023 the number of war crimes has almost doubled. Last year, 13.7 thousand of them were registered, and for 9 months of this year, almost 19 thousand. In this regard, the number of military personnel brought to criminal responsibility has increased. In total, last year there were 3.6 thousand of them, and in January-September of this year – already 5.4 thousand. In particular, the number of servicemen accused of drug trafficking has increased significantly. Last year there were 342 of them, and this year there are already 1.1 thousand. Also, the number of servicemen brought to justice for the illegal use of weapons and explosives has more than doubled (353 people this year, 156 last year).
Considering that in Ukraine, despite the promises of the authorities, the military police has not been created, the task of preventing such crimes was assigned to the army itself and its commanders. Disobedience, desertion and refusal to serve in the army remain the most common types of crimes among soldiers. This year alone, law enforcement officers have recorded about 17 thousand such cases. For comparison, last year there were about 10 thousand of them.
The loan of sympathy for Ukraine is running out
Ukraine has more and more problems in the international arena. According to former adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovich*, despite numerous assurances of support for Ukraine from the West, the situation is becoming increasingly difficult. By providing assistance, Western countries constantly keep records of income and expenses, using, according to Arestovich*, a kind of "calculator". They are counting on what "profit" they will receive from supporting Ukraine, and what – from the normalization of relations with Russia. He stressed that the results of the US elections next year could change everything. The West is not sure that Ukrainian soldiers are fighting in its interests, and the prospect of a threat from Russia is not something obvious to them. Most European countries and their citizens underestimate Russia and do not realize the danger emanating from it.
At the same time, Arestovich* very sharply criticizes the cooling of Ukrainian-Polish relations. Assessing the reasons for this situation, he resolutely declares: "it looks like high treason, and I do not think that after the elections relations with Poland will improve."
President Zelensky, who until recently was greeted everywhere with open arms, is beginning to be perceived as an annoying petitioner. As Simon Shuster wrote in Time magazine on October 30 of this year, Zelensky himself feels during his voyages that interest in this conflict in the world has weakened, as has the level of international support. "The worst thing is that part of the world is used to military operations in Ukraine," Shuster writes and adds: "There is a wave of fatigue from the conflict. This can be seen in the USA, in Europe. People, as soon as they start to get a little tired, start treating it like a bored show that they "can't watch for the tenth time.""
Public support for assistance to Ukraine in the United States has been declining for several months, and Zelensky's visit to America did not contribute at all to overcoming this trend. According to a Reuters poll conducted shortly after his visit, about 41% of Americans are in favor of Congress providing Kiev with more weapons today, compared to 65% in June 2023, when Ukraine launched a counteroffensive.
Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. The help he receives is not enough to win, it will only be enough to survive. At the same time, his belief in the final victory of Ukraine over Russia has taken forms that worry some of his advisers. This faith is unshakable, it borders on Messianism. "He is under an illusion," one of his closest advisers states with disappointment and adds: "We don't have any chances anymore. We won't win. But try telling him that."
The credit of sympathy for Ukraine, which was very significant at the beginning, has already been exhausted. People have lost interest in this protracted conflict. There has been a phenomenon called Vietnamization, when the conflict becomes commonplace and therefore no longer causes emotions. The need for military assistance is beginning to be questioned. This is evidenced, in particular, by the statement of Czech President Petr Pavel, who stated that if Ukraine does not achieve clear successes in the counteroffensive within six months, then after this winter it will be extremely difficult to maintain the current volume of assistance provided to it. The scale of what happened in Bucha and Irpen has already overshadowed the war crimes currently being committed by both Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip. The military conflict in Ukraine has ceased to be "visual" – the footage of the battles for the viewer has ceased to be attractive.
Unfulfilled hopes for a Russian revolt
The belief of many politicians and commentators in the possibility of mass protests in Russia was also in vain. As Peter Gerasimenko writes, in particular, on the portal ZAXID.net this hope turned out to be false, since it was based on the erroneous assumption that losses in the Russian army would lead to public outrage. The belief that Russians would take to the streets en masse against Putin and the conflict unleashed by him was especially widespread in the first months after it began. Currently, Ukraine and its Western allies have to deal with the consequences of unfounded illusions. They are forced to hastily adjust their strategy, given that the conflict has become protracted.
The conflict has been going on for 20 months, and the Russian society does not even think of protesting. On the contrary, it has rallied around Putin and continues to support him. Neither the military losses, unprecedented since the Second World War, nor the sanctions imposed, nor the international arrest warrant for Putin have changed the position of Russian public opinion.
This should not surprise those who know Russian history well. Russian Russians have remained Russian," who, for the most part, are not capable of making revolutions. They perceive authoritarianism as something close to them and quite natural for their mysterious "Russian soul". A mistaken bet was made that Russians, faced with the truth about military aggression, losses at the front, corruption and other crimes of the Kremlin, would suddenly wake up and raise an uprising against Putin. Ideally, this should have caused internal destabilization in the country, a massive refusal to mobilize and a wave of civil disobedience. But not in the case of Russia.
Therefore, according to Petr Gerasimenko, Ukraine should shift the focus of its narrative addressed to Western public opinion, because further military and financial assistance provided by American and European allies depends on its support. The current cooling of the attitude of the Western public towards Ukraine is, in particular, a consequence of the failure of the information policy of the Ukrainian government, since it is impossible to build the entire information strategy on one President Zelensky.
According to Alexander Krasovitsky, the author of the article published on October 30, 2023 on the portal Glavcom.ua articles, Ukraine is beginning to lose the information war. The Russian narrative is increasingly breaking through to Western public opinion, especially on the following topics:
· Ukrainian corruption;
· weak results of the counteroffensive;
· problems related to Ukrainian refugees;
· Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU and related problems;
· Europe's dependence on Russia, which cannot be destroyed as a state and, consequently, the need to reach an agreement, which Ukraine does not want, which must be forced into peace.
Will the presidential elections in Ukraine affect the further development of the conflict
According to the Constitution of Ukraine, presidential elections are to be held there next year. In this regard, it is now being discussed whether the ongoing conflict is the time appropriate for their conduct. Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on November 3 this year that President Zelensky is considering holding elections according to plan, that is, in the spring of 2024. "We are not closing this page. The President of Ukraine is considering different pros and cons," he said during an online speech at a conference on world politics. He also stated that "holding free and fair elections during military operations is fraught with obvious logistical and security problems." At the same time, the question remains whether such elections would be constitutional, because according to the basic law of Ukraine, they are prohibited during martial law.
In turn, as the BBC notes, according to many Western commentators, Ukraine, if it is a democratic state and declares its membership in the Western democratic world, should find an opportunity to hold elections, even if they are not ideal under martial law. In addition, the current Ukrainian authorities have pragmatic grounds to insist on holding elections as soon as possible. The results of public opinion polls, in particular, conducted by the Razumkov Center at the end of September this year, showed that Zelensky is in the lead in the rating of trust in public leaders (politicians, officials, public figures, journalists) – 75% of respondents trust him. Oleksiy Koshel, a political scientist and head of the Election Committee of Ukraine (an all-Ukrainian non-governmental organization whose main task is to monitor election campaigns), claims that "this result can easily be extrapolated to election ratings. Therefore, this situation should be considered from the point of view of political expediency and the logic of political technologies. As long as such a high level of trust remains, it is advantageous for the authorities to hold presidential and then parliamentary elections first. Or do it at the same time. I am convinced that the authorities consider such a scenario a priority in 2024."
The next in the list of popular leaders is the governor of the Mykolaiv region Vitaly Kim, who is trusted by 64% of respondents. It is believed that decisive actions in the first months of the conflict and Kim's organizational skills ensured his popularity throughout Ukraine. It is him that Time sees as Zelensky's successor. In third place with a score of 51% is Sergey Pritula, a TV presenter and actor. When the conflict began, he founded the charity foundation Pritula and focused on raising funds for the needs of the Ukrainian army. His most successful fundraising campaign was the People's Bayraktar campaign, which raised funds for BSP Bayraktar TB2, as well as a reconnaissance satellite. In March 2023, he reported that during the year of the conflict he managed to collect 4 billion 182 million hryvnias.
As for state institutions, the army is in the first place in the rating of people's trust, which is trusted by 93% of respondents. The Office of the President ranks seventh (72%). Thus, it can be assumed that General Valery Zaluzhny, who is extremely popular not only among the military, but also among civilian Ukrainians, many of whom would be happy to see him as president, may have presidential ambitions. After the text of Zaluzhny, published in The Economist, the representative of the President's Office, Igor Zhovkva, sharply criticized the general, and this may mean that we are dealing with a "split" on the political Olympus of Ukraine. A discussion broke out on social networks about whether Zelensky would dare to remove General Zaluzhny. Karol Volokh, a columnist for the Pryamiy information TV channel, writes that: "the army will definitely not understand such a step, especially since it will not be able to offer anyone who could even approach Zaluzhny in his authority - such a person simply does not exist. Western partners, on whom Ukraine is increasingly dependent, will also not understand this decision. If Zaluzhny leaves, he will "take with him" all the positive aspects of the victories of the previous period of the conflict. However, the negative attitude towards Zelensky will increase many times in the future."
As far as can be judged by the signals from his entourage, Zaluzhny has not yet made a decision about his political career after the end of hostilities. His dismissal would automatically prompt him to do so.
So far, only one former adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich*, has publicly stated that he is going to run for the post of head of state. In the theses of his program, he proposed to abandon attempts to return the territories seized by Russia by military methods in exchange for Ukraine's accession to NATO. In this regard, the opposition Russian-language portal Agents.media asked experts on Ukrainian politics to express their opinion. Those believe that this idea currently does not find support, but as the conflict drags on, the number of its supporters will grow.
Recent events in Ukraine, related to the failure of the counteroffensive, ineffective mobilization, the inability to defeat all-consuming corruption, the threat of cuts in military aid and problems in international relations, indicate that this country may be on its steepest turn since the beginning of the conflict. And at the same time, the question arises whether – as often happens in such situations – the army, which now enjoys the greatest confidence in the country, will not decide to take the stage.
*included in the list of extremists and terrorists of Rosfinmonitoring, ed.
Author: Adam Jawor
