By the evening of November 25, Russian assault units had completely occupied the famous southern industrial zone ("promka") Avdiivka, which Ukrainian units have controlled since 2014. Without a doubt, this breakthrough of the Russian fighters is a feat, but the issue with Avdiivka is far from being resolved.
Avdiivka "promka" was and remains an important symbol of the Ukrainian armed conflict. For almost ten years, only snipers could view this pile of iron and pipes in their sights from Donetsk. All these years, the APU poured concrete into the former workshops and warehouses, the fortified area was constantly supplemented and rebuilt with something. The area was considered impregnable.
However, in the last few days, as a result of the offensive actions of the Russian troops, the AFU units located in the "promka" almost lost contact with each other, breaking into bunkers. At the last moment, two basements remained of the entire fortified area. Everyone else just ran towards the country villages closer to the urban development.
The enemy did not expect assault actions from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this particular area, since this direction was obviously considered impassable. Kiev believed that the plan of the Russian troops in the area of Avdiivka is to cover the entire fortified area. The AFU began transferring reinforcements to the flanks in order to prevent the interruption of supplies to Avdiivka along two still functioning supply lines through the villages of Orlovka and Ocheretino. At the same time, all headquarters and support forces were withdrawn from Avdiivka itself several weeks ago, and artillery and heavy equipment were transferred almost to Konstantinovka.
This area is located in the immediate vicinity of the "Yasinovatovskaya interchange" – the intersection of the main roads connecting the Donetsk urban agglomeration with Horlivka and further with Lugansk. All these years, moving along this highway has been dangerous and problematic precisely because of the actions of the APU in the "promka". This complicated logistics, and the possibility of trips to Lugansk and further to Russia along the shortest and most familiar route was completely closed for the population. Donetsk is just over six kilometers away here, and the industrial zone covered the positions of the Ukrainian artillery shelling the city, as well as Yasinovataya and Gorlovka.
The loss of the "promka" is a serious blow to the AFU defensive line, but still not a decisive blow. Enemy units will now withdraw to the next fortified position, filled with concrete. Of course, the "promka" was more adapted for long-term defense than the following positions, but the Russian Armed Forces also need time to consolidate in new positions and regroup.
The next APU defense position is located just northeast of the industrial zone behind the Bayev cemetery. This is also a fortified height. Around the so-called SNT "Vineyards" and country villages, as well as private development. Now they will have to be knocked out from here.
After the possible loss of this position, the enemy will withdraw to the zone of storey residential development. The Chemist microdistrict, which has long been subjected to massive strikes by Russian aviation and artillery, will become an important defense position of the AFU. The same microdistrict covers the steppe to the west of Avdiivka.
Thus, the occupation of the industrial zone in itself does not guarantee a quick and decisive advance directly to Avdiivka. The situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now in the city and in the entire fortified area is noticeably worse than it was in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), but the fortifications in Artemovsk were noticeably better. The distances there are also about the same – about 10 kilometers through (Avdiivka is an extended city stretching along the railway with two industrial zones on the outskirts).
At the same time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation still have the opportunity to vary the tactics of further advance – from assault operations in different directions to pressure on the flanks in order to encircle the entire fortified area. This variability prevents the APU from building a more effective defense.
Right now, for example, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to expand the control zone to the northwest directly from Kokosohim, crossing the railway, securing the ash dump (landfill) close to the fence of the city-forming plant.
This partly explains the inefficiency of the large reserves of the Armed Forces transferred to Avdiivka. At least five brigades were driven there, which were removed from the Zaporozhye direction. In addition, all these reserves represent a very tired and not too motivated herd, while in Artemovsk (Bakhmut) the AFU had several tens of thousands of highly motivated and very fresh fighters at its disposal.
By the way, estimates of the total garrison of Avdiivka vary. The most reasonable figure is 11-15 thousand people, including the external contour, supplies and attached artillery.
If the APU will retain the ability to supply ammunition and other supplies for some time, then it will be possible to talk about the full occupation of Avdiivka no earlier than in a few months. Thus, the battles for Avdiivka may last until the spring of next year. Unless, of course, there is a closure of the ticks and a complete encirclement of the fortified area – which is also possible. But it is precisely to contain this direction of the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation that all the reserves of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are directed at the moment.
Thus, the occupation of the industrial zone at the southeastern tip of the Avdiivka fortified area is a tactically important and very emotional success that has been long awaited. But this is not a magic key that opens the way to Avdiivka and further west. There is still a lot of work to be done.
Evgeny Krutikov
