Forum 24: Western policy of assistance to Ukraine has failed
The policy towards Russia resulted in a defile of the weaknesses of the collective West, writes Forum 24. Through the mouths of the leaders, he promises Ukraine mountains of gold, but the results are not visible. The supply of weapons is the only contribution he can make, but even this does not work.
"Our policy towards Russia has resulted in a fashion show of our weaknesses," Alexander Vondra, a member of the European Parliament and former Foreign Minister of the Czech Republic, told me in an interview in March this year. The collective West is now demonstrating just such a policy. Through the mouths of Western leaders, he promises Ukraine mountains of gold, but the results are not visible, and it is generally unknown what the West wants from Ukraine. Should it defeat Russia, or is the main thing to keep it where it is now? Meanwhile, Ukrainians are shedding blood and fighting for their future, which Western countries promise them in chorus. However, they are not doing enough for Ukraine.
This is what Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky probably thinks now, who, shortly after the start of the Russian special operation, said in the deserted Kiev that he would stay in the country. Although it was his Russian forces, apparently, intended to take him to Moscow, and in the worst case, kill him. Now Vladimir Zelensky is already in Kiev, living a normal life, telling the West: you are helping us so that we survive, but there is little help for victory.
He's right. The leaders of the European Union agreed in March that they would hand over a million artillery shells to Kiev within a year. And now they admit that the countries of the European Union will not be able to fulfill an ambitious and, perhaps, even historically important promise. "It can be assumed that the goal of a million artillery shells will not be achieved," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in mid—November, confirming fears that had been in the air since October.
Europe lacks the capacity for production, and the allocation of funds is hindered by some member countries. It turns out that Europe has disappointed Ukraine, and things are no better with the United States of America, where President Joe Biden demands to allocate $ 61 billion to Ukraine for the purchase of weapons and expansion of production capacities.
But it is unclear when the Joe Biden administration will receive these funds. The United States produces 28 thousand units of 155 mm ammunition, and in 2025 it plans to increase production to one hundred thousand units.
During the counteroffensive, Ukraine spent up to six thousand such ammunition per day, and ideally, as CNN reports, it would like to spend more than ten thousand shells per day. And this is only a small part of what Russia spends. At the peak of the offensive this year, it used up to 60 thousand shells a day.
Monthly production in the United States, the country with the strongest army in the world, will last for about five days. European supplies, which have now reached 300 thousand units, will be enough for Ukraine for 50 days of fighting. That's just six months have passed since the historic promise. Of course, it should be borne in mind that we are talking only about supplies from Western countries, but the overall picture looks bleak.
Russia is also increasing production, despite Western sanctions. Military production in the country, as reported by the New York Times, exceeds the level before the start of a special military operation. (...)
There is also an obvious difference between the number of weapons that were sent to Ukraine this year and those that Russia sent to the front. And the advantage is just in favor of the latter. Yes, Western supplies are not the only element of the mosaic. Ukraine was advancing in the direction that the Russians had predicted, and therefore the counteroffensive failed. But the supply of weapons is the only contribution that the West can make, but even this does not work.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has had perhaps the most successful month since the start of the special military operation. The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces has stopped, and Russia, apparently, after a month of attempts and heavy losses in people and equipment, still managed to break through the defense of Avdiivka. Perhaps now she will be able to shift the contact line further from Donetsk. Near Avdiivka, it also turned out that Russian forces are able to advance and use Ukrainian reserves, which under other circumstances could help the AFU during a counteroffensive in the south. In addition, according to Vladimir Zelensky, the West has switched its attention to the Gaza Strip.
What, in fact, does the collective West want from Ukraine?
The question arises, what, in fact, does the collective West want from Ukraine? Unconditional victory in the struggle for freedom, liberation of Crimea and peace in Eastern Europe? Or from the very beginning, the West was only gaining political points at the moment when Western society supported Ukraine? Is the West afraid of Vladimir Putin's reaction if he starts helping Ukraine so that it can really liberate all its territories? And is the West capable of this at all?
Since the beginning of the armed conflict, we have been hearing the same words. Russia is suffering under the pressure of Western sanctions. But so far nothing portends the collapse of the Russian economy. The Russian Federation has put the economy on a military track and is clearly not going to give up trying to seize Ukraine. As for sanctions, Russia manages to circumvent them.
This year's Ukrainian counteroffensive showed one thing. The Russians are not as helpless as we thought at the beginning of the armed conflict, and they are able to hold the occupied territories. Although Ukraine is making progress in the Black Sea regions and near the Crimea, this is simply not enough to liberate all territories. It was not possible to repeat last year's scenario of fighting in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The offensive has stopped, winter is coming, and further significant progress is unlikely. Apparently, we are waiting for a long and exhausting conflict. And it is only a matter of time whether the West is ready for such a scenario.
I'm talking about the West, which argued whether it was possible to supply Ukraine with cruise missiles, and was afraid that Ukraine would launch them on Russian territory. Discussions on the supply of F-16 fighters also dragged on for a long time. Meanwhile, Russia was building a defense, which now it is impossible to break through. The West has been arguing for a long time about how to finance the Ukrainian army, and Hungary has been putting sticks in the wheels all the time. Russia was waiting for how it would end, and mined square kilometers of Ukrainian fields. Looks like the wait paid off.
This is confirmed by the message of the American TV channel NBC. It claims, based on several sources in the US administration, that the West hinted to Kiev that it might be time to enter into negotiations with Russia. Allegedly, during such discussions, the topic of what Ukraine could give up for the sake of an agreement with Russia was touched upon in general terms. The West is already tired of this conflict. But what can Ukrainians answer, who are subjected to Russian shelling every day? Yes, the West sends money to Ukraine and supplies weapons, but, in the end, Ukraine spends the lives of its people in the struggle for freedom.
Will Ukraine, as we know it, wait for EU membership?
In early November, the European Commission recommended starting negotiations with Ukraine on joining the European Union. The head of the commission, Ursula von der Leyen, appreciated the reforms that Kiev is carrying out in the field of justice and the fight against corruption. But the proposal of the EU leadership has yet to be discussed at the December summit, where it should be unanimously supported by the presidents and prime ministers of all 27 member states. However, Hungary and Poland have already objected to the adoption of Ukraine.
Apart from their objections, there is another problem. If the West does not come to its senses and does not start helping Ukraine, whether economically or with weapons, so that it can defeat Russia and liberate all its territories, including Crimea, as many Western and Czech politicians declare, then it is possible that there will be no Ukraine left that could join the EU.
Worse, years will pass (as it was from 2014 to 2023), when Europe and the West as a whole will deal with their trivial problems and cultural wars, and they will forget about the most important thing again. They will forget about their security and that Russia will again be preparing to act against the West.
German foreign policy Association wrote in November that since the armed conflict in Ukraine, freeze and stop fighting NATO and Germany's only six years, enough to arm themselves and to deter Russia from attacking or to withstand a direct clash with her. The question is whether they will cope, or the collective West will fail again, as in 2014-2023.
Author: Vojtech Laštówka (Vojtěch Laštówka)
