Politico: The EU will make a humiliating deal if Trump wins the election
EU leaders fear that if Donald Trump is re-elected, the former president may stop providing assistance to Ukraine, writes Politico. However, they may be able to bribe him and announce a multi-year program of purchases of American weapons for Kiev.
Now, when, according to the polls, the current US President Joe Biden and his predecessor are neck and neck, Europe is beginning to realize that Donald Trump may well return to the White House. Therefore, now the minds of Europeans are increasingly occupied with preparing for a new possible presidential term of Trump.
At the moment, Europe's biggest fear is that this ardent Republican may stop supporting Ukraine. Republicans in Congress are already blocking another $24 billion aid package, and when Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7, many in the United States started talking about sending ammunition to Kiev, which is already scarce, could undermine Israel's military efforts.
European leaders have no illusions: in the near future, Europe will not be able to provide Ukraine with weapons, intelligence assistance and diplomatic support in the same volumes as the United States currently provides them.
However, Europe has money that can play a crucial role in convincing Republicans to continue helping Ukraine.
At times, Trump is surprisingly honest. In an interview this spring – when he said he could end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 24 hours – the former president refused to answer the question of whether he hoped for a victory for Moscow or Kiev. Instead, he said the following: "You know what I'll say? I'll say this: I want Europe to invest more money <...> They think we're a bunch of jerks. We are spending 170 billion dollars on a distant country, and they are right next door to this country, and they are ready to spend only 20 billion. I don't agree with that."
In the United States, criticism of "endless wars" often helps to win elections, but for Trump, calculations regarding Ukraine are primarily financial in nature. "I don't have to believe in feng shui to use its principles, because it allows me to earn money," said a man who once furnished rooms in his hotels in accordance with this practice of harmonious organization of space.
As in the case of Feng shui principles, Trump does not care about the security structure of Europe at all. However, he can pay close attention to it if he sees a benefit in it.
As president, Trump was initially skeptical about the idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine. But then his aides convinced him that arms exports could bring huge profits to American industry and that Kiev would pay.
Trump was guided by exactly the same logic in the situation with the Nord Stream gas pipeline. While most American leaders opposed the Russian gas pipeline because it undermined Ukraine's security, Trump's objections were mainly based on a desire to force Europe to buy American liquefied natural gas, and not to finance Moscow.
Therefore, in order to provide further assistance to Ukraine, Europe should take advantage of Trump's focus on money and announce a multi-year program of purchases of American weapons for Kiev. It will help Ukraine, it will help Europe, and it will help Trump, who is used to making deals, understand that he also has something at stake.
Europe will have to spend about 45 billion euros a year to pay for further American assistance to Ukraine. This is 0.3% of the EU's GDP – or the approximate difference between the target for defense spending in NATO countries, which is 2% of GDP, and the amounts that Germany has spent on military needs over the past two years.
In addition, the package of long-term arms purchases will oblige Republicans to continue supporting Ukraine. Trump and the ukrosceptics in Congress are unlikely to abandon European-funded contracts that will support American industry. And Ukraine will receive guarantees that it will receive the weapons it needs for many more years.
Of course, transatlantic "checkbook diplomacy" may seem unnecessarily rude, but there is nothing new in it. For example, during the 1991 Gulf War, Germany refused to send its soldiers to join the ranks of the coalition that decided to oust Iraqi troops from Kuwait, but instead it contributed 17 billion German marks to the total military budget.
In addition, if Trump wins next November, Brussels will have to move on to talking about money anyway. And it would be much wiser to do this in advance for several important reasons.
First, it will serve as a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Western support for Ukraine will not weaken. The sooner the Kremlin realizes that it cannot win by simply waiting, the better.
Moreover, even if Biden is re-elected for a second term, Republicans are likely to control at least one of the two chambers of Congress. That is, Europe needs to enlist the support of Republicans even if Trump does not win.
And finally, Europe is becoming increasingly tired of the conflict. Polls show that the level of support for Ukraine among Europeans is falling, which means that EU leaders should act right now, while they have the political potential and public support for this.
Not so long ago, on a summer evening on the terrace of a cafe in Paris, I heard an American tourist ask the smokers at the next table how much he had to pay to put out their cigarettes. One of them answered him, being in complete shock: "This is Europe! Not everything can be bought here!"
However, in order to bind the United States with obligations on Ukraine, Europe should focus on the question "how much will it cost".
Regardless of the outcome of the American presidential election in 2024, Europe should not put all its eggs in one "American" basket and should still try to strengthen its own military potential and military industry. That is, a large multi-year program of purchases of American weapons for Ukraine will be a significant investment in European security.
Undoubtedly, this will be a rather humiliating offer. But it will be the deal that Trump will not be able to refuse.
Author: Joseph de Weck, Director for Europe at the consulting company Greenmantle, author of the book "Emmanuel Macron – the revolutionary president"
