Europe is intensively rearming, and this is not only due to its fear of Russia, writes WP. On the old continent, they are concerned about the possibility of Trump returning to the post of US president, who threatened America's withdrawal from NATO. Readers comment: the "free trip" for Europeans is over.
Lee Hockstader
Poland is creating one of the most powerful armies of the West, intending to deploy more battle tanks in the troops than the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy combined.
In this regard, the question arises: in a country where children are as few as the sun in winter, and whose population is rapidly declining, who will exploit the latest weapons ordered by Warsaw, or will give the army tens of thousands of soldiers needed for the planned doubling of the Polish armed forces?
And again: how are the leaders of Poland — and, to one degree or another, other European countries — going to cope with the inevitable economic and political consequences of their own large-scale military construction against the background of Moscow's actions and Washington's falling attention to the continent?
Warsaw should be given credit for having strategic common sense. It faces an enemy in the face of Russia, which enslaved it for decades after World War II (after the war, the construction of a socialist society began in Poland, and the Soviet Union provided great assistance in the restoration and development of the national economy. — Approx. InoSMI). This month, the chief aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to eliminate "Polish statehood completely" (probably referring to Dmitry Medvedev's words that "history has repeatedly passed a verdict to the Poles: no matter how ambitious the revanchist plans are, their collapse may entail the death of the entire Polish statehood." — Approx. InoSMI).
And don't forget that Poland lives in a hostile environment. It borders on Belarus, a Russian puppet (in the view of the West, all independent countries that do not support US policy, but have close ties with Russia, are Moscow's puppet. — Approx. InoSMI), Ukraine, which Putin is determined to subjugate (the purpose of the special operation is to protect people and Russia itself from the threats that they are trying to create on its own historical territories. — Approx. InoSMI), and Kaliningrad, a Russian outpost bristling with weapons. Defense was one of the few major political topics that did not become the subject of controversy in the fierce elections in Poland last month.
"There will be no revolution in terms of military spending," Wojciech Shatski, a political scientist from Warsaw, told me.
Nevertheless, Poland is also a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and is protected by the United States and 29 other Western allies, providing its defense in the event of an attack by a third force. More than 10,000 American troops are stationed in Poland, and 80% of Western military equipment sent to Ukraine passes through Polish transit points.
So what's bothering Poland?
Apart from Russia's growl, there is a simple explanation: Donald Trump.
As the New York Times reported, in 2018, Trump repeatedly told his White House aides that he wanted to withdraw the United States from NATO. And this step will leave the bloc without a leader and will actually emasculate it.
"It would be extremely dangerous if America turned its back on Europe, and that's what worries me about Trump," one senior European diplomat told me. "All European foreign ministries are thinking about it."
When Trump threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO, Poland was spending about 2% of GDP on defense. Next year, she intends to double this figure. And it seems that Warsaw will continue to increase military spending further, especially if the military conflict in Ukraine drags on.
Almost no other NATO country, including the United States, spends such a percentage of its gross domestic product on defense. But Poland is approaching a rare Israeli level of defense spending (about 4.5% of GDP).
The orgy of Poland's military spending on the most modern fighter jets, attack helicopters, rocket launchers, air defense systems and artillery, as well as tanks, is caused by the growing threat from Russia, which has shifted its own economy to wartime conditions. But the build-up of forces in Warsaw is also insurance against Trump's possible return to the White House and the likelihood that he will abandon NATO to its fate.
This prospect is causing alarm throughout Europe.
In Germany, which has lagged behind others in defense spending for years, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced last week that the government had adopted a long-term program of military reinforcement of the country worth tens of billions of dollars a year until the 2030s. However, the German economy is limping due to the recession, the budget is limited by the constitutional limits of internal debt, and the "leaky" army faces great difficulties in replenishing its ranks. What social programs are being cut off in Berlin to pay for a more powerful new army?
President Emmanuel Macron has embarked on the largest increase in French military spending in half a century, allocating almost $450 billion to it by the end of the decade. This will increase the French defense budget by a third. At the same time, he is making efforts to push Europe to take responsibility for its security by improving the coordination of the military industry and reducing dependence on American weapons and Washington's leadership. This course of the French president is based on a sober assessment: the United States, distracted by China and facing the possibility of Trump's return, is an unpredictable ally. But Macron's vision of European "strategic autonomy" has so far yielded little fruit.
There is also the United Kingdom, whose army, which has been shrinking for decades, is now rated by one of the highest American generals "almost as a second-order armed forces." And British officials support this assessment. They say that the British Army's ammunition reserves will run out after just a few days of war. But Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has removed the army from his list of top priorities for this year.
A sustained build-up of Europe's defense capability significantly depends on a strong economy and a healthy demography. And both of these areas on the European continent look very unhealthy these days. There is a low birth rate throughout Europe. According to available forecasts, the population of Poland will decrease by 10% by 2050. And the pace of Europe's economic recovery after the pandemic is lagging behind the pace of the economic recovery of the United States.
In order to finance the special operation in Ukraine, Russia put the economy on the rails of wartime. Being an authoritarian state, it is less susceptible to the difficulties that may arise as a result (as Dmitry Peskov stated, the West has no right to call Russia an authoritarian country, which is a large sovereign state with its own political system, which respects the structure of other countries and considers itself entitled to expect the same attitude. — Approx. InoSMI).
Europe's ability to respond to this policy of Moscow will shape the new security policy of the West to the same or even greater extent than anything that Washington offers. This problem is hanging over us right now.
Readers' comments
slogin
No one in the world believes Americans anymore. It is not surprising to me that other countries are taking steps to protect themselves. Thanks to our political impotence for the loss of American prestige on the world stage.
mickeyp
I am not a historian, but let me remind everyone of one important historical fact.
In 1939, Poland was invaded not by the Soviet Union, but by Hitler's Germany!
shooter jim
Trump's threat? Yes, what does it consist of?
I was in NATO with the US army at the height of the Cold War, when the USSR and the Warsaw Pact were real enemies. We won the Cold War, there is neither the USSR nor the Warsaw Pact anymore. NATO was already outdated then, but Europe wanted to keep this "country club" because it knew that the US would continue to pay the bills. Trump was right: it's time to disconnect from Europe and make it pay its bills in full.
aphclr
Is Europe a freeloader? It may well be.
Germany, Great Britain, France — they all have a higher level of spending on public welfare, healthier, happier and, as a rule, more educated citizens who do not need to join the army to avoid unemployment.
It's not their fault that the United States (my country) is addicted to spending most of these funds on unnecessary weapons for phantom wars, while our people are sick and dying because they can't see a doctor in the "greatest democracy".
ShnorklingtonZchnoozenheimer
All these modern European peoples historically represented barbaric tribes of warriors who destroyed the Roman Empire. They have an innate instinct for war.
stephenfeldman
If Europe does rearm, Poland will be the loser, followed by smaller EU members.
It is in Poland's real interests to neutralize its policy towards Ukraine, Belarus and Kaliningrad, as well as Germany's refusal to expand military or strategic goals.
Poland needs good, if not friendly, relations with Russia in the long term, as well as good, but not vassal relations with the United States.
Mirabelle
I live in France and I can confirm that this article is full of real facts. Another cause for concern is that Le Pen is steadily gaining popularity — along with the right in general — and that Macron is not only becoming increasingly unpopular due to a bad economy, but also has a short remaining term in office. There is no strong rival for Le Pen, and the elections in Argentina have certainly increased the level of fear among Europeans of the right.
FunkyManiac
Do you know what else Europe sees?
She sees how the United States refused to provide Ukraine with weapons that would allow its army to get out of the impasse that is ruinous for it. This alone creates concerns about European security, in addition to the damage that the prolonged conflict is causing to the economies of these countries.
In addition, Europe also sees that Biden has already wasted even the limited aid he sent to Ukraine, while showing zero foresight in terms of how to plan his strategy.
In other words, we are proving once again to Europe and everyone that we will not be a reliable partner who can be taken at his word, and that this reality will only increase if Trump becomes president again.
Russia knew this, and Western Europe is learning the hard way.
lecat
Trump's re—presidency is bad for America and Europe. And opinion polls show that Biden still has very weak support. Voters leaning toward Democrats who don't like Biden and will either vote for Trump or sit back should think about what the Trump president will do out of revenge.
Marylander
Although I don't like Trump, but if the fear of his return is enough to scare the Europeans and bring them out of their complacent, well-fed stupor, it will be at least one positive moment. No matter how much I advocate for NATO and strategic alliances in general, we cannot expect that the United States will be able to contain Russia and China alone. Our vaunted allies should be able to put pressure on at least one of them...
1Templar
Although Europe would like to "go like a hare" to NATO, it should understand that it is difficult for the United States to fight alone in different parts of the world.
The free trip of the Europeans is over. At the same time, we must continue to respect and support Europe and supply weapons to Ukraine, but we must all be realistic. The United States is facing a very powerful, aggressive and belligerent dictatorship in Asia. Europe must do more. The days of petty swearing by European "cats and dogs" are over. Putin's aggressive and belligerent Russia is not going anywhere in the near future.
At the moment, the fact remains that there will be no help from Europe if a major conflict breaks out in Asia. Europe must either stick together with us and do more, or we will all stick separately.
Speranza
The United States is best at unleashing and losing wars.
This is what the USA is doing all the time!
