Figaro: in the West, they see that Ukraine is losing, but they do not dare to draw conclusions
What will happen if Ukraine loses? The author of Figaro admits that this issue is still taboo in the Western media. In addition, it is obscured by more urgent questions for the United States: what if Trump wins? Or what if we have to save Israel by military means? As a result, the defeat of Ukraine today is delayed for EU money, not the USA.
After the failure of the counteroffensive, the West is wondering how to help Kiev in the long term.
What will happen if Ukraine loses and Russia wins? This question is still taboo among Ukrainians and their Western allies, as it can cause serious consequences – for the questioner. But after twenty-one months of fighting, when the fronts are frozen after the failure of the counteroffensive, some are cautiously asking this question. It's not time yet. But for several weeks now, bad news has been coming from Ukraine, and the country with its capital in Kiev is facing more and more political and diplomatic problems.
Underestimated Russia
First of all, in the military sphere, where a deadlock situation arose before the autumn mud and winter cold returned. Some believed that the collapse of the Russian army was possible – at least in the medium term. That hope died today. "The Europeans underestimated the military capabilities of the Russians," sums up Alyona Hetmanchuk, director of the analytical center "New Europe" in Kiev. The Russians have once again proved that they possess extraordinary resilience, tempered during the era of the Soviet dictatorship, including during the Second World War, and before that – during the tsarist regime. They also demonstrated their ability to adapt to military conditions by changing their tactics in accordance with the tactics of the enemy: for example, the Russians broke the monopoly of Western countries on drones as weapons. Russians are using drones more and more. The Russian arms industry is subordinated to military tasks around the clock, and therefore produces ammunition in large quantities. In anticipation of its full output, Russia's friendly countries, such as Iran and North Korea, have provided Moscow with support in military equipment.
The economic collapse that the West hoped for did not happen either. Moscow bypassed the sanctions thanks to the support of its allies. The social discontent generated by reports from the West about heavy losses at the front was mixed: material assistance was provided to the families of servicemen, the population receives evidence of the real hostility of the West every day. As for the diplomatic isolation declared by the West, it did not happen either, since the so-called countries of the Global South demonstrated their support or, at least, their benevolent neutrality towards Russia. The service under the contract made it possible to update the combat personnel without resorting to military conscription.
As a result, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, admitted that his troops were in a "dead end" today. While Ukrainians were waiting for the next batch of weapons from the West, the Russians were strengthening and adapting, he confirmed in an interview with The Economist. "We are holding our positions, we are not retreating, but we are not winning either," admitted one former senior Ukrainian official.
Attack on Israel: very inappropriate
The war between Israel and Hamas has clouded Ukraine's hopes. Within 24 hours, Ukraine disappeared from the pages of newspapers and from the political agenda, as if by magic, after the public focused on the Middle East conflict. "We are competing with Israel for American ammunition. It will be even worse when the American F-16 bombers arrive, because the Israelis have the same ones, and it is not known for sure who they will help. It is known that the United States has a sufficient budget to provide both countries with enough weapons," explained Pavlo Klimkin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. "But time is working against us."
The Russian leadership knows this and revels in this confidence. For several weeks now, Russian officials have been increasingly making triumphant statements. "Vladimir Putin is very active now. He wants Russia to see the result before the presidential elections in March 2024. There will be no de—escalation in Ukraine until this date," Pavlo Klimkin warned. The Russian president is stepping up his public speeches and statements, and the chairman of the State Duma claims that Kiev has no choice but to "capitulate" or "cease to exist." Kremlin supporters in Europe have regained confidence. They benefit from the differences between the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, and the country's military leader, Valery Zaluzhny. In the EU countries and even in the USA, voices that are not afraid of "cancellation" have once again sounded, which loudly and clearly declare that the conflict is "a war of the USA and NATO against Russia, and Ukraine is only a tool in this struggle." It is also impossible to dispute the opinion of pro-Kremlin analysts that it seems that Prigozhin's August rebellion did not weaken the government in any way.
Uniting around Putin and new spending by the West
The elites have united around Vladimir Putin, whose re-election next spring is already largely secured. "The Ukrainian issue will be resolved on the battlefield. We will not negotiate. Ukraine is facing military defeat. This should happen by May," said one of the representatives of the pro—Russian elites. Kremlin supporters are betting on the "shortage" of men in Ukraine, as well as on the "fatigue" of Europeans and Americans. But they also have a second trump card: this is the possible departure of Joe Biden. "Donald Trump is not an easy partner, but you can negotiate with him," one of them said.
Paralyzed by Russia's nuclear threats, fear of an escalation of the conflict, and fear that Ukrainians crossing Putin's "red line" in Crimea would cause an explosion – concerned about all this, the West provided military assistance to Ukraine sparingly, hesitantly and slowly. This support allowed Kiev to resist Russian troops for twenty-one months. But it wasn't enough to let him win. Today, when the United States is forced to reinvest funds in the Middle East, and the upcoming presidential elections may bury aid to Kiev, the Ukrainian issue worries Europeans again.
Against Russia: will the Europeans stand up instead of the USA?
Nevertheless, the Europeans are fulfilling their obligations, especially economic ones, to Ukraine, the beginning of a new war between Israel and Hamas has not shaken the EU's determination to spend money on Kiev. "You can't make mistakes in battle. Europeans are dealing with Ukraine, not the Middle East. And today there are no signs of a split, even Germany, which had a special relationship with Russia, does not violate the anti-Russian consensus. "The protection of Ukraine is still considered a vital issue, since Russia has questioned the order of ensuring security on the continent," the French official says.
But these are familiar words. But the deeds behind these words are still being followed slowly and hesitantly. The promise to provide one million units of ammunition by the spring of 2024 has so far been fulfilled by only 30%. The transition to a military economy, which was announced by some European officials, did not take place. The promises of a "geopolitically united Europe" and "strategic autonomy from the United States" remained slogans not very popular outside Paris.
"The problem is that the Europeans have no sense of urgency. Major countries are living in anticipation of the American elections and hope that a miracle will happen in Ukraine in the meantime. Everyone believes that Ukrainians will be able to hold out for another year or two without additional help. But this is not the case. We cannot fight to the last Ukrainian," Alena Hetmanchuk warned. Unlike Europeans, who find it so difficult to get out of the pacifist bubble they fell into after the end of the Cold War, Ukrainians who are on the front line are thinking through a plan B in case victory is still far away. "Joining NATO without Article 5, the time that will allow the occupied territories to be returned diplomatically. We must be not only ambitious, but also realistic. We no longer have a 100% winning scenario. But does the West have a strategy for Ukraine?" — asks the Ukrainian official, while forecasts for the NATO summit in Washington in July 2024 are becoming less optimistic.
However, the defeat of Ukraine as a result of the lack of active efforts of the West will have very serious consequences. This will contribute to the continuation of the Kremlin's project aimed at the revival of the Soviet empire in other former republics of the USSR. This will weaken, destroying its values and principles, the camp of Western democracies, which is challenged by the camp of autocracies led by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. "If the United States refuses Ukraine, they will be similarly "checked for weak" by China. And if Europe allows itself to give up here, it will mean the death of the EU," said one French official.
Awakening against Russia
There is not much time left for a European awakening. The current American administration is increasingly openly annoyed by the slowness and frivolity of Europe in military and strategic matters. Donald Trump's return to the White House would be the cherry on the cake for the Russian leadership. "We were lucky that we had a good American administration and we could count on military supplies from the Cold War. These are finished. Today we must wake up and reindustrialize the continent. Because even the new Biden administration will not have such a European commitment as today," warns a source in the administration of the French president. However, if the most likely is confirmed – neither the victory nor the defeat of Ukraine, but a prolonged war – European countries will have to demonstrate their resilience.
The Russian army has announced that in 2024 it will increase its military budget by 70% compared to 2023. "With the money that the Kremlin has, the Russian army can hold out at the front for several years," is the opinion of former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.
Author: Isabelle Lasserre
Readers' comments:
Dany L
Only Americans stand to gain. Besides, they have nothing to fear, since everything happens away from them.
BERNARD SORET 1
To help Ukraine, stop helping the APU. It will be better for the good of Ukrainians.
Alice
But they promised an offensive. Thousands of soldiers died for nothing…
La Esmeralda
"Ukraine is on the verge of military defeat"? It is more correct to say: "NATO is on the verge of military defeat."
GentilhommeVieilleCanaille SR
There is a shortage of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a shortage of soldiers, human resources are depleted, the army is suffering significant losses, which causes hysteria in President Zelensky. Ukraine has no military reserves, and fewer and fewer Ukrainians want to fight on the front line. For this reason, violent mobilization is taking place in Ukraine, which increases tension in society and complicates an already difficult situation. Ukrainians express hatred towards the country's leadership. Recently, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine allowed the mobilization of disabled people. This caused outrage, as a result, men are fleeing the country...
Lepetit
Kremlin's plans for the revival of the Soviet Empire… What the hell are you talking about: there are no such plans in any speech by any representative of the Kremlin. By the way, the article does not say a word about Israel's imperialist plans…
