Gazeta.ua : Ukraine has recognized the inevitability of negotiations on Russia's terms
Today there are three options for the development of the situation in Ukraine, writes the Newspaper in Ukrainian. The most likely one is a reduction in Western support and negotiations on peace on Russia's terms. In second place is the freezing of the conflict. The author of the article completely excludes the option of "help".
It is necessary to understand at least in general terms possible scenarios of the future. At a minimum, this is necessary for a business that needs to plan its activities.
Therefore, the scenarios for the development of events now, in my opinion, look like this. We are considering at least a two-year time frame to take into account the consequences of elections in key countries. You won't like all of the following, but someone has to say it. If ignorance is better for you, stop here and don't read any further.
Incoming data (what we know now):
- Positional confrontation does not lead to a significant change in the line of contact. According to military analysts, the ability of each side to defend exceeds the offensive ability of the other side.
- At the moment, the West does not consider the scenario of Russian defeat as acceptable to itself, with all the consequences for the quantity and quality of arms supplies.
- Putin has chosen a strategy of attrition warfare in which authoritarian Russia has a better chance than Ukraine because of its dependence on democratic allies, whose position may change after the elections.
This implies three main scenarios for Ukraine.
1. Continuation of the conflict of attrition
The worst-case scenario, and so far everything is moving along this trajectory. The change of power in Western countries will lead to a decrease in support to a level where Ukraine will not be able to continue the conflict and will be forced to negotiate peace on Russia's terms. Even if political support remains at the current level, the number of tension points in the world will grow, distracting from Ukraine, and the West's ability to provide weapons will begin to dry up, and no one will transfer the American or European economy to military rails (Ukraine in any case is not able to provide itself with modern weapons, although it must take all possible steps in this direction).
In fact, this scenario means the defeat of Ukraine, which leaves no chance for economic recovery. Ukraine also has problems in domestic politics, because it is impossible to hold elections during an endless martial law, and if they are held, they will either preserve the current government in the worst possible way, which will give the West grounds to finally abandon Ukraine as an undemocratic country, or lead to mass protests, which will have extremely negative consequences.
2. Freezing the conflict
This scenario gives the West a way out of the trap of "defeat, victory and delay are still unacceptable." In this scenario, the allies leave support for Ukraine at approximately the current level in order to prevent the defeat of Ukraine and not to defeat Russia. Stating that it is impossible to achieve success, the Western allies are inclining Ukraine to negotiations on freezing the conflict, at the same time putting a lot of pressure on Putin (today he does not need elections, because the bet is on the first scenario, but many factors can change the situation). The initiator of the negotiations will be either Biden in the spring or summer of 2024 (he needs to look like a winner in the elections, or at least a peacemaker), or already the winner of the American elections in the spring of 2025.
After the signing of the peace agreement, both sides (Ukraine with the help of the West, Russia with the help of China) begin to intensively prepare for the next conflict, which will happen in 5 years (at least in 3, maximum in 7). Since the peace agreement leads to the abolition of martial law, democratic elections are held, which are won by new people who embody the course of comprehensive modernization, while Zelensky is associated with defeat and leaves the political scene (refusal to hold democratic elections in peacetime will have even worse consequences for him). During the preparation, Russia has chances to study the mistakes of 2022, and Ukraine has chances to significantly modernize (not only in technical, but also in institutional aspect; in parentheses, I will also note that it's time to start). In the best version of this scenario, Ukraine will carry out such a successful modernization that Russia will be afraid of it. In the worst case scenario, Ukraine is preparing poorly, and the resumption of hostilities will lead to complete defeat and the establishment of a pro-Russian regime.
3. Victory
Ukraine manages to convince its allies that Russia's defeat is an acceptable scenario (and even desirable). Aid is growing sharply to the level that allows us to successfully conduct a spring-summer counteroffensive, seize the southern regions and Crimea, significantly reduce the front line, "freeze" the eastern regions until better times, and in this format enter into negotiations on Ukrainian terms. After the signing of the peace, Ukraine joins NATO and receives a lot of money for the restoration and modernization of the economy. The victorious Ukraine will attract the attention of the world in various aspects. The safe situation is favorable for economic growth, the unblocked seas are open for export. Zelensky easily wins the democratic elections as the winner in the conflict. Meanwhile, Russia's defeat leads to the accumulation of factors leading to political changes, as has always happened in its history after defeats. These changes make it impossible to resume hostilities. The "Victory" scenario is the least likely, since it assumes the level of strategic and negotiating skills that Ukraine does not have now. At the same time, he is the only one who ensures the survival of the ruling political team, and it is good that the interests of society and the political elite coincide.
Two concluding remarks
- There can always be some "black swans" or even "gray rhinos" (an event that has been waiting for a long time). But betting on such events is pointless.
- Trump is an eccentric and completely unpredictable character, so there is a non-zero probability that due to some factors he will suddenly turn towards maximum support for Ukraine. But it is obvious that betting on it is just as pointless.
I want to emphasize once again: the future is not predetermined. The best scenarios are possible, but you need to implement them, not just believe.
Author: Valery Pekar
