The Guardian: despondency reigns in Ukraine over the prospect of a continuation of the conflict
In Ukraine, the feeling of euphoria about a "quick and decisive victory" over Russia has been replaced by deep disappointment, writes The Guardian. Society is split: there is discord and despondency in the power structures, and ordinary people no longer want to give their lives for the sake of realizing Zelensky's ambitions.
Rumors of tension in the Ukrainian leadership, the exhaustion of the army after two years of fighting and disappointment in the allies weaken the mood in Kiev.
At the moment, there is still a faintly perceptible, but unmistakably present feeling of despondency in Kiev. And not only because of the dark days after noon and the decreasing temperature. A number of internal and external factors combined to create, perhaps, the darkest mood since the beginning of the Russian SVO regarding the prospects for a quick and decisive victory of Ukraine over Russia.
"At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, there was such euphoria here. Now we see the other extreme, its decline. And I think that for some time we will see some more ups and downs in the public atmosphere in the country," said Bartosz Cichocki, who last month completed a four—year term as Polish ambassador to Ukraine.
There are rumors of tension in the team of Vladimir Zelensky and a rift between the president and the commander-in-chief [of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny]. And the long-awaited summer counteroffensive was quickly nullified by impassable Russian minefields and fortifications.
Fatigue after two years of fighting, the continuing loss of human lives at the front and frustration with the slow pace at which Western partners continue to supply weapons to the Armed Forces have had such a cumulative effect that for the first time since the beginning of the military conflict in Ukraine, voices have sounded calling for considering the possibility of holding ceasefire negotiations, although recognizing that these negotiations will be risky and they can benefit Russia.
And then a terrible tragedy is unfolding in the Middle East, which has diverted attention from Ukraine and slowed down the flow of Western ammunition entering the country. "Ukraine fatigue" is growing in Western capitals, and the dangerous prospect of Donald Trump's second term in the United States is beginning to loom, which could undermine the current support for Ukraine from Kiev's largest ally.
There are also some encouraging moments. There are news on the battlefield that Ukrainian troops have "buried themselves" in positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, as well as about the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On the diplomatic front, the EU's announcement that it plans to start negotiations with Ukraine on membership in the organization caused some excitement.
But still, now that Ukrainians are preparing for another winter, during which Russia's attacks on their critical infrastructure and strikes using missiles and drones are not excluded, the optimism of six months ago that Russia's defeat and the return of Donbass and Crimea could be "right around the corner" has begun to fade.
"This will not be the victory we dreamed of, and it will take much longer than we thought," said Volodymyr Omelyan, a former infrastructure minister who enlisted in the territorial defense forces on the first day of the conflict and is now a captain in the Ukrainian army.
The forbidden word
Most Ukrainians recognize that while Vladimir Putin is in power, lasting peace is unlikely to be achievable, and any pause in hostilities will be used by Russia to rearm its army. Polls show that the majority of Ukrainian citizens oppose negotiations with Russia, especially if they involve recognition of the loss of Ukrainian territories.
At the same time, the depletion of forces at the front since the beginning of the conflict, difficulties in mobilizing new soldiers and the failure of this summer's counteroffensive to retake territory have led some cautious voices to suggest that Kiev's current approaches require changes.
"The choice is very simple. If we are ready to give another 300,000 or 500,000 lives of Ukrainian soldiers to capture Crimea and Donbass, and if we get the right number of tanks and F16s from the West, then we will be able to do it," Omelyan said. "But I don't see 500,000 more people ready to die, and I don't see the readiness of the West to send the weapons and in such a volume that we will need."
Another option, according to Omelyan, is "a ceasefire agreement to carry out large—scale reforms, become a member of NATO and the EU, and then, when Russia collapses, return Crimea and Donbass."
However, this can only be wishful thinking. Zelensky said that any negotiations would only play into Russia's hands, given that the Kremlin's ultimate military goal remains the complete subordination of Ukraine.
Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the Ukrainian president, acknowledged that a difficult stage has now come, but said that this stage "requires the strongest and most difficult concentration" to continue going further. "Let's clarify the situation: there is no possibility for real negotiations. It will be just an operational pause. Russia will use this to significantly improve the condition of its army, to carry out a new mobilization, and then resume a special operation with even more tragic consequences for Ukraine," he said.
Nevertheless, a recent interview with Zelensky by journalist Simon Schuster, who wrote a biography of the president, which is due to be published soon, and enjoys unusually wide access to his team, suggests that even in Zelensky's inner circle there are people who doubt his messianic faith in the victory of Ukraine.
Schuster quoted an angry Zelensky aide who said that the president was mistaken about the prospect of victory on the battlefield. "We have no options. We are not winning. But try telling him that," the assistant said.
Conflict in the Middle East
Hamas's attacks on Israel and Israel's retaliatory attack on the Gaza Strip proved difficult for Ukraine for three reasons. Firstly, the war in the Middle East has led to the fact that, perhaps for the first time since February 2022, Ukraine has ceased to be the main foreign policy issue in the minds of most Western leaders for a long period of time.
Secondly, according to Zelensky, this meant a reduction in the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, which aggravated the already acute problems existing in the Ukrainian army.
Finally, there are the consequences of Zelensky's decision to support America's tough pro-Israel stance on the conflict in Gaza. He called Hamas and Russia "the same evil." This has undermined Ukraine's attempts to expand its circle of supporters in the Middle East and other regions outside the West.
Podolyak admitted that relations with many non-Western countries had "cooled down". "This has made it difficult to create a broader coalition of support for Ukraine in the fight against Russia," he said.
The prospect of a second Trump term
The US presidential election is only a year away, and the potential return of Donald Trump, who often claims to be able to conclude a quick agreement to end the Ukrainian conflict, is an alarming prospect for many in Kiev.
Publicly, officials say they are confident that the support from the White House will continue, no matter who is in power in the United States, but privately there is concern about what a Trump presidency will mean. "This has been discussed with them at every meeting," said Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia who works with the Zelensky administration on sanctions issues and met with the president and other key officials in Kiev in September.
Even without Trump in power, Republicans can disrupt the Biden administration's policy towards Ukraine. Since September, Congress has been unable to pass a new bill on assistance to Ukraine, which is opposed by some Republicans, which means that military supplies to Kiev have been reduced. Zelensky's chief of staff, Andrei Ermak, traveled to Washington last week to meet with Democrats and Republicans in hopes of emphasizing the importance of continuing arms supplies.
The return of politics to Ukraine
In the first year of the conflict, Ukrainians rallied around Zelensky, admired his leadership in the decisive first days of the SVO and united in their national struggle against Russia. But over time, this atmosphere of social harmony began to collapse.
According to one informed source, the president is acutely concerned about the "Churchill phenomenon", which consists in the defeat of a successful wartime leader in the elections. On the eve of the presidential elections to be held in March next year, there were suggestions that Zelensky might try to hold a vote, giving himself a new mandate before perhaps an even more difficult stage of the conflict.
These hints provoked a sharp reaction from many representatives of civil society, who said that it was impossible to hold elections now either from the point of view of logistics or from the point of view of security.
"Most developed democratic countries agree: elections cannot be held during a conflict. Everyone should have one priority — the protection of the state," said Olga Aivazovskaya, an election specialist.
Zelensky ultimately ruled out the possibility of holding elections next spring, but regardless of whether elections will be held at all or not, there are now certain doubts about the unity of the nation during the conflict. Opposition politicians say that when the conflict ends, questions will be raised about Zelensky's readiness for the Russian SVO. Campaigns of "black PR" and compromising materials are again distributed through Telegram channels, from where most Ukrainians receive news.
Zelensky's ratings are still high, as is the rating of Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, whom many consider a possible future presidential contender, although he has never voiced any political ambitions.
When Zaluzhny recently gave an interview to The Economist magazine, calling the situation on the battlefield "stalemate," Zelensky and his advisers criticized the use of this term. Podolyak denies the existence of a conflict between the two leaders. "Zelensky is his direct boss, and there can be no conflict by definition," he said.
Tsikhotsky, a former Polish ambassador, stated with all certainty that in recent months there has been a surge of political struggle in Ukraine. "Politics has returned to Ukraine," he said. — That initial consolidation of Ukrainians into a single force fighting evil has passed. It's different now."
Author: Shaun Walker
