British historian Garton Ash: next year, the AFU will launch a new offensive
Spring and summer next year will be decisive for the conflict in Ukraine, British historian Timothy Garton Ash said in an interview with HN. The APU will launch a new offensive. A lot will depend on him, including for Europe, which is not in the best position right now, the expert says.
Martin Egl
Europeans need to strengthen the army and the economy in order to enjoy greater authority in the world and to effectively overcome crises at home and in their environment. In an interview with Hospodářské noviny, British historian Timothy Garton Ash says this. He also noted that young people should also participate in the defense of modern Europe. Garton Ash, an expert on the modern history of Central Europe, came to Prague for the anniversary conference of the Aspen Institute of Central Europe.
Hospodářské noviny: Our time is full of dramatic events. Which of them, in your opinion, is particularly alarming from the point of view of the future of Europe?
Garton Ash: There are a lot of disturbing events. The armed conflict in Ukraine is developing unfavorably. Ukraine has managed to return not so many areas, and US aid is significantly reduced. It bothers me a lot. The war between Israel and Hamas is not a matter of foreign policy, but of the domestic policy of many of our countries. You will see what large-scale demonstrations are being held in London and other cities. Also, we must not forget about climate change. Last month, the average temperature on the planet was 1.7% higher than before the industrial revolution. This is already more than the boundary of one and a half degrees. In addition, there are grounds to seriously assume that Donald Trump will again become President of the United States of America. All these are very significant external challenges. In the domestic arena, we see a real threat that 2023 will turn into a repeat of 2015, and the fear of mass migration may push voters to populists. In my opinion, the most disturbing thing is that we, the Europeans, may be denied the will, that we may lose faith that we are actually able to solve these problems and protect our own interests and values from these challenges.
— Have we betrayed Ukraine by not supporting it enough?
— I wouldn't use such words. Considering how unprepared Europe turned out to be for a major armed conflict on the continent, its response turned out to be very impressive. The European Union has largely remained united despite Viktor Orban's resistance. Who would have thought two years ago that the EU would collectively pay for weapons and ammunition for Ukraine? However, I think we missed the chance, and we should not have hesitated so much with the supply of weapons. If last summer and autumn we had sent tanks, long-range missiles, planes, air defense systems, then Ukraine would have had a real chance to regain part of its territory. During the six winter months, Russia managed to arrange huge minefields and build two or three defensive lines, so we paid dearly for indecision.
— Is it time for negotiations with Russia? Or maybe we should put pressure on Ukraine to think about negotiations?
— Not at all. The time has come for serious European discussions on how much we can increase our support for Ukraine. It is worth admitting that, on the one hand, the situation at the front is developing unfavorably, and on the other, US support is declining, primarily because of Israel's war with Hamas. Yes, we will hear a lot of European voices calling for negotiations. There will be those who will even offer Ukraine to be content with what it has left. They say, give up a fifth of your territory, and this, by the way, is a territory the size of Greece. In exchange, you will receive the prospect of joining the European Union. Yes, I think we will hear a lot of such sirens, but we must show resilience.
— In your new book "Europe is my homeland" you write that in the south and east Europe has no clear border. Is it possible to say now that the eastern border of Europe lies where the Ukrainian army stands?
— No, Europe does not end on some clear line, but is lost somewhere between St. Petersburg and Vladivostok, between Istanbul and the Iranian border, somewhere between the Mediterranean Sea and beyond the Atlantic. We can only say that the border of the geopolitical West and those who share the values we believe in in the European Union and in the West lies exactly where the Ukrainian front line runs. At Oxford, we recently conducted a small survey of public opinion in 11 European states and ten non-European ones. One of the questions we asked was: does Russia relate to Europe from the point of view of modern political values? And people all over the world said no.
— We'll talk about the survey later, but now let's briefly fast forward to the Middle East. Against the background of the pro—Palestinian demonstrations that are taking place in Western Europe, and against the background of the growth of anti-Semitism in the Czech Republic and other Central European countries, some politicians say that, they say, in 2015 we said we should not accept a huge number of migrants. Are these politicians right?
— No, they were absolutely mistaken. Europe needs immigration. It is estimated that more than 400 thousand people come to Germany every year. Some of them come from the Muslim world. Most of them integrate very well into our society. Disgusting anti-Semitic incidents say, first of all, that emotions are now at the limit. Let's be honest: some Israeli politicians, including Benjamin Netanyahu, expressed themselves, to put it mildly, contradictory. When people are equated with animals, a "warning light" should be lit. In addition, we understand that integration has not been fully completed in our society. In my book, I emphasize that over the past 50 years, people from all over the world have appeared in our societies. There is no turning back anymore. We are not going to develop some large-scale European project of ethnic cleansing until the third generation of people with a migratory origin. Thus, the only option is a successful integration.
— But where does this anti-Semitism come from in Western Europe? Why do people take to the streets of Berlin and London?
— Of course, this is largely due to the widespread opinion in the Muslim and Arab world that the Palestinians should have their own state, just like Israel. Others hold even more extreme views, and that's where the frightening map from the river to the sea comes from. But it is extremely disturbing that this is being talked about not only in the peripheral parts of some immigrant communities, but also in our university buildings. Something has clearly gone wrong if our Jewish fellow citizens go to German, British or French universities with fear.
— Then what should I do? You said that integration should become more complete...
— Lessons need to be learned from integration. It is necessary to prosecute those people who violate the law. Most of our countries have laws on hate speech. I have been dealing with the issues of freedom of speech for many years. The main change is violence. If hateful manifestations really call for violence or can lead to it, then such things should be punished. However, you also need to understand that at such moments emotions are heated to the limit. I don't want to justify or downplay anti-Semitism one bit, but let me give you an example.
— Please.
— The British Home Secretary, who was dismissed from her post, called on the police to ban a demonstration in support of Palestine. That is, to refuse 300 thousand people. But almost all of these 300,000 people were British citizens who took to the streets mainly to peacefully rally for the rights of Palestinians to their own state. A ban would mean a gross violation of freedom of speech. We must pursue extremists, those who call for violence, those who break the law. But we also need to understand that at critical moments people want to "let off steam" and go to a demonstration.
— You conducted the survey you described together with the European Council on Foreign Relations. I found a paradox in the survey report. On the one hand, people, mainly from, as they say now, the global South, believe that the West is in decline. On the other hand, the same people mostly say they would like to live in the West. How to explain it?
— I think it's the difference between soft and hard power. We still have overwhelming soft power. If they don't want to live in their own country, they will come and live here or in the USA. But the difference between Europe and the United States is that these people still have a deep respect for the hard power of the United States of America. Therefore, in the event of an escalation, they expect the United States to guarantee their security. But people around the world are clearly not impressed by the European hard power. So I don't think there is a paradox here. The results actually just reflect the real perception of Europe. Yes, we are very attractive, we have a lot of soft power, but with hard power, not everything is so good. However, in the course of the study, something else came out that is fundamental to me.
— What is it?
— That states such as India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa believe that it makes no sense for them to choose, that they can maintain very close economic ties with China, energy and defense ties with Russia, but at the same time can maintain good relations with Europe and the United States.
— How can Europe build this tough force?
— It is important to say that hard power is both defensive and economic in nature. It is clear that Europe's potential economic strength is greater than the one it uses. The reason is the competition of the member countries for Chinese or Indian business. This is the first. If we did what we are doing in the field of regulation, in other areas of economic policy, our economic strength would increase. As for defense, we need to help Ukraine win this armed conflict. Then the face of Europe will completely change. Russia will be weakened. Ukraine will have the largest, past military operations army in Europe. Poland will have the second largest army, because Poland plans to allocate four percent of GDP for defense and create an army of 300 thousand people. If Germany allocates two percent of GDP to defense, then its defense budget will take third place in the world. If all this is summed up, then we will get Europe, which will spend much more money on its defense. This will impress both the US and the rest of the world.
— But words are one thing, and actions are another. How to achieve this politically?
— Poland is already allocating these funds. She buys a huge amount of equipment. Germany is also signaling that it is ready to do so. Therefore, in my opinion, the most important thing is to understand that Europe must now, that is, in a year or two, do more for Ukraine's victory. It is her victory that will fundamentally change the situation.
— So you predict that the armed conflict in Ukraine will last for another two years?
— It is absolutely clear that the intensity of hostilities will weaken in winter. The next spring will be decisive, as well as summer and the beginning of autumn. One way or another there will be a new counteroffensive. If Ukraine fails to make significant progress for the second time, then they will actually get tired of Ukraine, even if Donald Trump is not elected president of the United States of America. Although his election, I'm afraid, is extremely likely.
— Do you assume that Donald Trump will win the election, and then the United States will withdraw from the North Atlantic Alliance?
— It would be too optimistic to think that this is absolutely impossible. But I have three thoughts on this. Firstly, the probability of his winning the election, in my opinion, is quite high if Joe Biden is his opponent. The vast majority of Americans believe that Joe Biden is too old for this post. If Biden stumbles (literally or figuratively), being at the head of the list of candidates along with unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris, then Trump may well be chosen.
— What other ideas do you have?
— Secondly, everything suggests that during his second presidential term, Donald Trump will be even more radical and unpredictable. Thirdly, could he leave NATO? No, it's unlikely. On the contrary, he is more likely to abandon Ukraine. For her, it will turn into a disaster, and for us, Europeans, it will be a serious challenge.
— Then what should Europe do to prepare for such a situation?
— In one year we will not make up for what we have not done in 50 years. And if you think about how rich a continent we are, it is simply unimaginable how, 80 years after the end of World War II, we are still dependent on a country lying far across the ocean in terms of our security. However, if we make great efforts to form our own combat capability and to help Ukraine achieve victory, then at least we will have an argument that can be presented to Donald Trump. If we go back to the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance in 2018, at which Trump reproached and lectured European leaders for not allocating enough money, then the main moment of that summit was the speech of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. He said: "Mr. President, do you understand that we are allocating $41 billion more?" Trump was impressed. At the subsequent press conference, he spoke and mentioned this amount. So the best thing we can do now is to allocate more money for defense.
— Is the West really in decline or is it being transformed into something new?
— Paradoxically, the Ukrainian armed conflict, on the one hand, showed us that the West is united as never before. Before the outbreak of the Ukrainian armed conflict, Emmanuel Macron said that NATO was in a state of clinical death. On the other hand, we saw a post-Western world. Polls show that many medium and large states simply refuse to choose between the West, that is, us, and Russia. Therefore, as I think, the West still has great power and, thanks to its expansion to the east, has become stronger, but its relative strength on a global scale has clearly decreased. (...)
