Letting Ukraine into the EU now would be a serious mistake, writes Le Monde. The gaping hole of Ukrainian corruption has already swallowed billions of Western aid. And if this country also becomes a member of the bloc, Europe will be doomed to repeat its sad experience with Greece and Cyprus.
It seems that the stalemate in which the fighting is taking place on more than a thousand kilometers of the front line in the Donbass does not help Ukraine. We hear that the aid promised by the West, if this term still has any meaning, does not arrive or arrives in small quantities and too late. In a sense, they promised to help Ukraine not so that it would win, but so that it would not fall apart. Vladimir Zelensky may not agree with his chief of staff Valery Zaluzhny, who spoke about the impasse, but the loss of confidence in Ukraine's victory is growing.
Coincidentally, while comments are multiplying about this very impasse that is alarming Ukraine, the European Commission suggests that the European Council decide to start the negotiation process on Ukraine's accession to the EU, which is not surprising, given Ursula von der Leyen's repeated promises. That would be good news for Zelensky, shocked by the news of a stalemate that he himself refuses to acknowledge. Easy to say, but hard to do.
Dangerous precedents
Greece's entry into the European Union in 1981 was too hasty a decision. It was adopted in order to stabilize democracy and prevent the return to the "power of the colonels." But the country was not ready. Speaking about this with my Greek colleagues in the European Commission, I still remember the trip to Athens in May 1992 by the President of the European Commission, Jacques Delors, which he specifically undertook to expose Greece to unequivocal criticism for the irrational use of funds allocated by the European Union. The money was spent without any positive impact on the economy and the quality of life of the population. This corruption continued until the ruthless financial crisis of 2008. Greece joined the EU without following the established rules. It was only under the current government that order was finally brought to the country. It took more than forty years.
Another mistake was the accession of Cyprus to the EU. The island has been divided by frozen conflict since Turkey invaded in 1974. In 2004, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey, adopted the UN Annan Plan for the reunification of the island. But three—quarters of Greek Cypriot voters rejected this plan for reunification and peace. The European Union believed that everything would get better as soon as Cyprus became part of it. 19 years have passed, but nothing has changed, and the conflict has remained frozen for half a century. Corruption in Cyprus has not been eradicated. In October 2013, the Group of States against Corruption (GRECO) The Council of Europe has published an alarming report: "the issue of a conflict of interests, including in connection with the presence of "pantouflage" (the transition in the order of dismissal of an official from state structures to a private organization serving the interests of these state structures. — Approx. InoSMI) is particularly difficult in Cyprus, and the ways to solve it are quite limited."
We know that corruption in Ukraine is much more widespread than the one that exists in Greece, and even the one that is still hidden in Cyprus. Wouldn't it be wiser to wait for the eradication of corruption before starting negotiations, rather than succumb to sentimentality? The two examples just cited should convince European leaders not to run ahead of the locomotive.
The process of Ukraine's accession to the EU will be long and ambiguous
Even if the Council agrees to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU, it is necessary that there be no military actions in the country. Who can predict how long the stalemate that Zaluzhny is talking about will last? Is it in Russia's interests — with or without Vladimir Putin — to break this impasse so that Ukraine then rolls towards the EU, and therefore, for sure, into NATO? Will the conflict be frozen for half a century, as in Cyprus? In short, there is every reason not to be optimistic about Ukraine's upcoming accession to the EU.
Admission to the EU requires the unanimous consent of all participating countries. Poland and Hungary do not intend to accept Ukraine if it does not meet their historical criteria. During the Second World War, when Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis, the terrible massacres of Poles living in Volhynia (in the north-west of Ukraine) left an indelible mark on the memory of Poles. The number of Polish citizens killed is estimated from 35 to 100 thousand people only in Volhynia and, according to various sources, from 100 to 500 thousand people in Ukraine as a whole. In addition, the recent dispute over grain prices has forced the Polish Prime Minister to declare that he will no longer supply weapons to his neighbor. An open conflict between the two countries remains the issue of the return of the bodies of the dead in Volhynia.
As for the southern neighbor, Ukraine cannot ignore Hungary's demands for the protection of the numerous Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia, which, according to Budapest, is subjected to rather cruel treatment by Kiev. Hungarians demand from Ukraine to restore the rights of this population, which they used until 2015. Ukraine obliges minorities to receive at least 70% of education in the Ukrainian language. Therefore, Budapest believes that children growing up in Hungarian-speaking families in Ukraine will lag far behind in terms of education.
The Shadow of Washington
The war in Gaza has changed the Biden government's interest in Ukraine. It understands that it is impossible to supply weapons to Israel and Ukraine at the same time, while maintaining the stocks necessary for a possible conflict with China. The U-turn towards support for Ukraine can be completed if a Republican wins the presidential election in a year. For example, at the Republican presidential candidates' debate on November 8 — in the absence of Donald Trump, who does not stoop to such events — the candidates generally agreed with Israel's support in its war against Hamas. However, there were disagreements about the further financing of Ukraine. Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy even uttered the name Zelensky next to the word "Nazi" in one speech, while strongly stating that "Ukraine is not a model of democracy."
Vladimir Zelensky's special relationship with Joe Biden is of no small importance. There is not only a strong similarity of views between them, but also loyalty to Washington on the part of Kiev — loyalty that will not disappear even after the end of the conflict.
The US Secretary of Transportation, who visited Kiev on November 8, announced that Robert Mariner, who worked on engineering projects for the US Air Force and Navy, will become an adviser on Ukraine's infrastructure. This adviser will be located in Kiev and provide technical support in the implementation of projects within the framework of restoration work in the country. Guess which companies will benefit the most from American and European money for the infrastructure that needs to be built?
Kiev will be loyal to Washington before it becomes an ally of Brussels-Strasbourg by joining the EU. In an increasingly divided world, is it right for a participating country that receives huge benefits from all kinds of European aid to be a "Trojan horse" within the EU?
Energy issue for Ukraine
We know that the European Union has decided to abandon fossil fuels. However, Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on such fuels, many of which are imported from Russia. Part of its electricity comes from nuclear power, an energy resource that until recently was "tabooed" for Brussels and Strasbourg.
When German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock came to Kiev at the beginning of hostilities, she offered the astonished Vladimir Zelensky to produce hydrogen for rich Germans. In its REPower EU plan of May 2022, the European Commission also proposed using hydrogen produced in Ukraine in the EU and exporting Ukrainian electricity to the EU. It's just incredible! How can you offer such monstrous things? Hydrogen energy does not exist anywhere in the world (see my book "Hydrogen Utopia"), and even more so in a country that is in a state of decay. How can we talk about importing electricity to a country where power plants are being bombed? How can we demand the production of renewable energy sources from a bankrupt country when we ourselves in the EU could not exceed 3% of the primary energy balance in this indicator, although we spent more than a trillion on various subsidies?
Of course, Ukraine, a country that also does not cope with energy efficiency, will not be ready to accept EU energy legislation. I'm not talking about agriculture, because Ukraine's accession to the EU would undermine the entire grain sector of the EU.
Who will pay?
During her visit to Kiev on November 6, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen informed Vladimir Zelensky that she would offer a substantial EU financial package of up to 1.5 billion euros per month for a total of 18 billion, which would be a significant contribution to covering Ukraine's financial needs until the end of 2023. Twenty—seven EU member states are due to vote on the proposal at a summit in Brussels on December 14-15. Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he was against such an increase in aid. However, according to Reuters, EU officials believe that they will be able to circumvent a possible Hungarian veto. Also on the Council's agenda is the issue of allocating 50 billion euros in aid for the next four years. All this starts to cost a lot of money long before joining the EU. One can only imagine what this will result in later.
Fatigue from the conflict has captured not only the United States, but also the European Union. The complacency of the EU and the ability of the population to be surprised are jaded. The war in Gaza has undermined interest in the "struggle for justice", which is getting bogged down in a swamp.
Meanwhile, the European Commission is working on finding funds to restore Ukraine after the end of the conflict. As one of the options, the use of Russian assets blocked in the EU in the amount of 300 billion euros, a significant part of which is located in Belgium, is considered. These are deposits of the Russian national bank and various oligarchs. Is it possible to imagine that a legal state appropriated someone else's funds under the pretext that the depositors' country invaded another? This is unlikely, but nevertheless the European Commission is seriously considering this scenario. If such a decision is made, it will create a precedent that will leave indelible traces in the country of the judge who dares to rule on such a "legal anomaly".
Ursula von der Leyen can smile with pride when announcing that Ukraine is going to join the Union. This hypothetical entry seems to me as untimely as Turkey's entry. Although Turkey's supporter, the UK, is no longer involved in the discussions, and everyone knows that its accession does not make sense, nevertheless, this issue remains on the agenda of the EU Council.
The world has ceased to be bipolar and even more so multipolar. He is apolar, and everyone thinks only of their own interests.
Author of the article: Samuel Furfari
