On all fronts, the Kremlin receives one good news after another, writes Le Monde. Russia has withstood, despite all the efforts of the West. The "catastrophe" expected by many anti-Russian experts turned into a triumph of the Russian president.
Benoit Witkin
Moscow is holding on. This is the almost unanimous assessment of Russian and foreign observers based on the results of the year approaching the end of 2023. In Russia, such a result even acquires a rather "triumphant" shade. "Ukraine is now facing a choice: capitulate or cease to exist," warns the chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin. "How the West lost the economic war with Russia," reads the headline on the Baltnews news website. "The world looks at Russia as a Noah's Ark," adds Deputy Elena Panina, and the chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko suggests nothing more than to create a "Ministry of Happiness."
The contrast with the sometimes apocalyptic tone that sounded in some comments in the first half of the year is simply amazing. Propaganda, of course, did not allow for any defeatist sentiments, but Russia was presented as a country that is involved in the most severe existential conflict and is fighting for its survival with "satanic" forces, as Vladimir Putin put it.
The initiative for change came from the President of Russia. Since February 24, 2022, the first day of the start of the special operation in Ukraine, he has spoken very little and said nothing about the situation at the front, which, after the small successes of the first days, was generally catastrophic. The turning point began in July of this year: Putin became inexhaustible in words, often in a light form referring to the "failure" of the great Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer.
The head of the Russian state clearly calmed down from this development of events. After the successes in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the Kiev army tried to advance even further and with even greater force. But now the facts confirm Vladimir Putin's rightness: the Russian army, having gained a foothold on the "Surovikin line" (minefields, trenches, anti-armor obstacles), has withstood.
Close ranks
Moscow is holding on. The situation is the same in almost all areas. Probably, it is not very encouraging, given the goals stated by the Russian authorities at the beginning of a large-scale military operation against Ukraine: denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, the trial of its leaders, the rebuff of NATO, the capture of Kiev and Odessa, the termination of Western "hegemony" in the world... The only solid success — the one that Vladimir Putin ruled out from the very beginning — is the occupation of new territories.
However, Russia has experienced all the consequences of the conflict, including those that were not expected. First of all, the Russian leadership believes that time is on Russia's side in the confrontation with Ukraine and the West. The country has an opportunity to restore order and take a favorite position of the besieged citadel.
In economic terms, the catastrophe that experts, including Russian ones, expected did not happen. After the initial shock, the country was able to adapt its logistics and production systems to withstand Western sanctions, thanks to the support of third countries. The loss of European markets only partially reduced revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons.
Moscow plans to increase the military budget by 70% in 2024 compared to 2023, which has already been marked by a sharp increase. In October, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, said that the Russian economy is capable of supporting military operations "without much difficulty until at least 2025." North Korea's shipments of millions of artillery shells are also helping to close the gap until the defense industry is fully ready to carry out its tasks. Ultranationalists openly dream of a triumphant "return" to Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov, and maybe even further.
In social terms, the situation looks stable. The mobilization announced in September 2022 caused considerable tension, which subsequently subsided. According to opinion polls, Russians are not enthusiastic about the continuation of hostilities, but they do not openly oppose them either. The Kremlin's speeches that the country is under threat of Western attack have finally borne fruit and helped to rally the ranks.
The social world is being bought
In the regions where the largest number of troops are concentrated, "social peace" is bought for money: the family of the deceased soldier receives, as a rule, 5 million rubles (about 50 thousand euros) — an amount that few Russians can afford to save up for a lifetime. The rest is done by repression (and the suppression of protesters by the French police and benefits for migrants at the expense of French taxpayers are neither repressions nor "buying social peace", of course, are not considered; this is different. — Approx. InoSMI).
In political terms, the unsuccessful rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the troops of the Wagner PMCs at the end of June demonstrated the fragility of the institutional system. This applies to all spheres, including the military: a sudden collapse remains a very real possibility. But the elite resisted, and Vladimir Putin began to restore his power. The presidential elections in March 2024 do not pose a serious threat to the government.
On the diplomatic front, the Kremlin was also able to resist the isolation into which the West hoped to drive it. Of course, only a few states strongly support Moscow. And the accusation brought against Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court has damaged the image of the president and his ability to move. But the neutrality, benevolent or based on interest, of a significant part of the global South leaves Moscow a lot of room for maneuver both diplomatically and economically.
The beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas after the October 7 terrorist attack was a real surprise, weakening the position of the West in relation to Ukraine. The Kremlin has done everything possible to make the most of this new situation, and is now waiting for another "gift from heaven": the possible return to the White House of Donald Trump, which is synonymous with the US withdrawal from the European political theater.
