Moscow. November 17th. INTERFAX.EN - US President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Filoli Estate near San Francisco. The day before, some American political scientists and the media predicted that the leaders of the two countries would have a "tough conversation." Others predicted that there would be no "breakthrough" in the relationship.
Sergey Lukonin, Head of the Economics and Politics Sector of the Primakov IMEMO RAS, tells about what this meeting brought in an interview with our special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov.
Tough talk didn't go according to plan
Correspondent: Can we state that a "tough conversation" took place between the leaders of the two largest countries of the world, and how did it end? Or did the conversation go "not according to plan"?
Lukonin: We can immediately say that there was no breakthrough. Frankly speaking, most observers expected this. And even the topics discussed between the US President and the Chinese president were predictable. This is the non-proliferation of drugs, the establishment of contacts along the military line.
Correspondent: What is meant by the concept of "military contacts"?
Lukonin: It's just the restoration of dialogue between the military departments of the two countries and the resumption of the so-called hotline, through which the military of the two countries can contact each other in the event of an incident.
Corr.: Is there no closer cooperation expected? For example, joint exercises on organizing rescue at sea and so on?
Lukonin: No, of course not. There can be no talk of any joint exercises. But at the same time, the dialogue continued on other basic issues, in terms of trade, finance and investment. The discussion of global warming topics also continued.
It was assumed that both Ukrainian topics and the situation in Gaza would be touched upon. But this is not confirmed in open sources. They probably discussed something, but in the end it is unclear what conclusion they came to specifically. Or whether they even came to an agreement.
Agreed not to bring the rivalry to "unbearable consequences"
Corr.: Did you name among the topics economic and financial?
Lukonin: Indirectly, from the phrases Xi Jinping uttered at the talks, it can be assumed that the Chinese side strongly hinted to the United States of America that it is impossible to compete with them now on the basis of sanctions pressure and trade and economic restrictions.
It is unclear what result this will lead to. So far, Biden, at least, has not made any statements about whether they will lift sanctions or, conversely, will additionally impose them. We'll wait. I proceed from the understanding that the strategic rivalry and competition between the United States and China will continue. I think that the United States of America will not refuse, including from the introduction of additional sanctions against China. First of all, it concerns the scientific and technical sphere.
But, on the other hand, this meeting demonstrates that both one and the other leaders understand that it is impossible to bring economic competition to an active hot phase, to a direct clash.
Correspondent: President Xi even said that a possible conflict between China and the United States would entail "unbearable consequences" for both sides. But at the same time, and without a direct collision, through sanctions pressure, it is possible to bring the matter to extremely serious consequences for the economy of one and the other side.
Lukonin: Yes, you are absolutely right. And I think that the United States of America is now playing all-in, given the pace of China's development, the quality of China's development. Naturally, China has its own socio-economic problems, problems with fundamental science. This is known in the United States, and they now proceed from the fact that if they do nothing, it is obvious that in the long term, and possibly in the medium term, China will at least become the same in total power as the United States of America, and under favorable circumstances it will overtake the United States of America. Washington cannot allow this to happen. Therefore, they will retain the ability to control the prevention of crossing the border when rivalry and competition may end in a collision. The United States, of course, does not want this, and China does not want it either. But at the same time, the United States will still take any action aimed at limiting China's development. I'm sure of it.
The states will hit the scientific sphere of China, and China....
Correspondent: What sanctions can they inflict serious damage on China's development? And aren't sanctions a kind of "boomerang"?
Lukonin: Of course, they can and, of course, sanctions will become a boomerang. The United States of America, at the moment, can first of all slow down China's economic development by preventing access to new technologies. Based on reality, we can firmly say that we have come to a period when the technological base of the economy should change. This process is called in different ways, including as the sixth scientific and technological way, and so on.
And it is assumed that a new economy should be formed on the basis of artificial intelligence, further automation and with the use of unmanned control systems, and so on. And the United States, of course, will hit primarily in this area, especially since China has announced the implementation of another program of digitalization of China - "Digital China".
The United States will primarily hit the scientific sphere of China. China will have to balance. Naturally, he is now investing very serious funds in scientific, technical and design developments. Theoretically, China, and maybe not only theoretically, can seriously hinder the development of the US economy.
Corr.: This is an interesting message. In what and how?
Lukonin: The States are now losing out on issues of industrialization. They have exported all production to developing countries, and therefore it is impossible to be sure that they fully control production chains, value chains. It should be understood that the production is located in another country, primarily in China. And China can influence this sphere in some way.
How are the States going to balance this? First, they announce the transfer of production to the States. We understand that China has problems that the United States is hitting. This is primarily in the scientific and technical sphere, but theoretically he can overcome them. But how I will transfer the widely advertised production process back to myself is a big question. Firstly, labor is more expensive, and secondly, China has formed a good production base, starting from mining and ending with the issuance of the final product. And plus, again, as an assumption, but quite real, everyone may face a serious problem.
What is it? Developed countries have approached the barrier of scientific development, which is very difficult to cross. And while they are marking time, developing countries are theoretically catching up with them. In my opinion, this is not only in theory.
And America will have a lot of questions in this case. Will they be able to move production back? What kind of production are they going to transfer? Will this production be efficient and profitable in terms of the final cost of the products that will be produced, and so on. Therefore, both countries can cause each other very serious damage.
In the meantime, trade as a reserve for the future!
Correspondent: But so far, cooperation between them is still developing. In which areas is this happening most actively?
Lukonin: Trade. Despite all the negative statements, the volume of US-Chinese and Sino-American trade continues to grow. According to the latest data, Chinese exports to the United States are declining, but the total volume of trade is still growing.
Correspondent: At the expense of what?
Lukonin: Due to the supply of mass-consumption goods from China. In addition, China, as I understand it, has made a strategic leap. Assuming that there will be additional sanctions, he begins to buy American high-tech equipment, various processors, microchips and so on for the future. In addition, some natural resources are being exchanged.
Interviewer: Is China going to negotiate, but is it also preparing for future difficulties?
Lukonin: Yes, there was no breakthrough in the negotiations.
