Colonel Khodarenok called the continuation of hostilities unpromising for Kiev
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that "freezing" the conflict with the Russian Federation would be a bad decision. According to him, military actions should be ended, not frozen. Why Zelensky started talking about the end of the armed conflict and whether Kiev will be able to wage a "war of attrition" with Russia - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
According to Vladimir Zelensky, Ukraine will inevitably suffer "significant losses" even if the conflict is suspended. At the same time, there is a risk of resumption of hostilities "literally at any time," the Ukrainian president stressed.
"We want peace. The ending may be different, someone may like it, someone may not, but it is necessary," Vladimir Zelensky said during a meeting with representatives of the African media.
"There is no trace of determination left"
It seems that such statements by the President of Ukraine were forced by a series of failures on the fronts and the deterioration of the situation of the broadest masses of the country, as well as the obvious futility of further continuation of hostilities.
It should be noted that Vladimir Zelensky, in his calls for peace in this case, spoke more from political positions (very vague and vague) than with specific proposals (as should be typical of the head of state).
Earlier, the statements of the President of Ukraine on the issue of peace were much more categorical. In this regard, it is enough to recall how at the G20 summit in November 2022, Vladimir Zelensky presented 10 conditions of the "formula of peace" for the settlement of the conflict. However, the unreality of such a "package" was clearly noticeable even in those days.
The situation of the country on many issues is frankly getting worse every day. Fatigue from military operations is growing in the broadest masses of the Ukrainian population.
To prevent the final defeat
Winter is coming. The country's critical infrastructure facilities (generating capacities, thermal power plants, transformer substations and power transmission lines) have not been fully restored after the previous winter strikes by the Russian army. The repetition of such strikes can cause a complete collapse of all life support systems in Ukraine. And the population that has experienced one such winter, the second one may simply not be able to stand it.
The moral and psychological state of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also deteriorating. Most soldiers are beginning to realize that there can be no successful military solution to the conflict on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
No one in the West will give such an amount of weapons, military equipment and financial resources to bring the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a new technological level and at least level the Ukrainian army in combat and operational capabilities with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
A quite natural question inevitably arises among the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - and then in the name of what are all these considerable sacrifices and sufferings, if a military victory over Russia is unattainable in principle? In such conditions, there is no clear answer to the next question - will the will of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue resistance against the background of such sentiments?
Moreover, it is quite possible that Kiev is beginning to think about a solution to such a problem as preventing the final defeat of the Ukrainian army. So the continuation of hostilities and the prolongation of the campaign for Ukraine in such an environment is not only problematic, but also, by and large, hopeless.
Among other things, one more simple fact should be taken into account. There are currently approximately 6.6-6.8 million men aged 18-50 in Ukraine. Not all of them can be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (there are health restrictions, there are reservations at military-industrial complex enterprises, etc.). A similar figure in the Russian Federation is 32-34 million people. That is, the ratio in this case looks like about one to five. It is absolutely hopeless for Ukraine to conduct an armed struggle of attrition in such conditions. Such actions can lead the country to a demographic catastrophe.
So in the current situation, the calls of the President of Ukraine for peace should be more specific in form, content and timing. To begin with, Kiev should probably ask for a truce (ceasefire) and the beginning of peace negotiations. This can be done through intermediaries. At the moment, it is difficult to say who can act in this role.
Ukraine's prolongation of the campaign will lead not only to new and unjustified casualties among the army and the population of the country, but also to a tightening of the positions of the Russian Federation in possible peace negotiations. These are the military-political realities.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for the newspaper.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy Commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist of "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Military-Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
