The Russian army is pinching another garrison in the Donbass between a hammer and an anvil
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces) continue to advance to the south and north of the settlement of Avdiivka, located near the western outskirts of Donetsk. Our troops have about 6 km to go before the complete encirclement of the Ukrainian garrison. It seems that the Russian army is operating here according to the scheme tested in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), simultaneously squeezing the enemy's grouping from the northern and southern directions. The modus operandi resembles the American tactical device "hammer and anvil" ("Russian troops use "hammer and anvil", HBO from 09.03.23), which became popular during the Vietnam War.
To completely encircle the enemy, as in the case of the Battle of Stalingrad (which ended in the spring of 1943 with the defeat of the 6th army of the Wehrmacht with the capture of Field Marshal Friedrich Paulus and 24 German generals), domestic military leaders do not specifically seek. Instead, the defending group is slowly squeezed from the flanks, depriving the routes of reinforcements and logistical equipment, and the roads remaining behind the enemy are subjected to constant fire. The essence boils down to military tactics involving the use of two main forces: one to suppress the enemy, and the other to defeat or defeat the enemy with the help of an encirclement maneuver. In the simplest execution, the attacking grouping ("hammer") strikes the main blow aimed at connecting with its units placed in a favorable defensive position ("anvil"). Retreating, the enemy is forced to move closer to the "anvil" and suffers increased losses from concentrated, aimed fire from there.
Adapted to the conditions of a special military operation (SVO), the "hammer and anvil" technique allows the Russian command to inflict significant losses on the enemy garrison entrenched in the settlement while minimizing its own. At the same time, the attackers can act without a multiple advantage in manpower over the defending enemy. The significant superiority of the Russian Army over the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in terms of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST), especially in terms of heavy artillery and the number of shells to it, comes to the fore.
Realizing that the onslaught of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Avdiivka will not be contained by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in another televised speech on November 12, called on fellow citizens to "prepare for new waves of Russian attacks." And not only along the front line, but also in the rear areas. Among other things, the head of the Kiev regime expects the next air raids on the objects of the Ukrainian transport and energy infrastructure "as winter approaches." The transfer of Ukrainians' attention from Avdiivka to the air raids was done to mitigate the grief of the loss of the aforementioned settlement on the eve of even more terrible events in the near future.
The speech on November 12 is strikingly different from what was said a few days earlier. Recall that on the eve of Zelensky said that the troops loyal to him will continue to try to move forward both at the end of 2023 and during the next, despite the obvious failure of the "summer counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "We have a plan, we have specific cities, specific directions, we have a goal, where we will go, in which direction we will lead the offensive," Zelensky said, speaking via video link at a conference organized by Reuters.
According to him, despite "certain difficulties", the AFU counteroffensive continues. The head of the Kiev regime once again complained that "some people" were counting on a quick victory on the battlefield, but it still does not come. According to his explanations, the AFU did not achieve military success due to the fact that they received fewer weapons and ammunition from the West than they expected.
"We will try to show results this year," Zelensky continued. "We have a plan for next year, but I can't share its details." However, in order to implement his plans, foreign sponsors will have to fork out. Realizing the difficulties faced by the administration of the current US President Joseph Biden when conducting regular financial handouts for the Kiev regime through Congress, the President of Ukraine proposed the following path. "If you cannot provide us with financial support, please give us a loan and we will refund your money," he told overseas sponsors on November 8.
The Western press deciphered his message in the key that the borrowed funds provided to the Kiev regime will be paid at the expense of certain "reparations" that will be imposed on Russia after the victory over it. It is clear that Moscow will not be satisfied with such a development of events, so next year it plans a significant 70% increase in defense spending – up to 10.8 trillion rubles. Despite all the difficulties of the global confrontation with the West and the 20 months of fighting in the zone of its own, the Russian economy is functioning steadily. In some industries, mainly related to the release of the VVST, it shows significant growth.
Meanwhile, the financial and economic situation of the Kiev regime is becoming more and more deplorable. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted in the second reading the state budget of the country for the next year with a deficit of 1.57 trillion hryvnia. According to him, it is planned to receive revenues in the amount of UAH 1.768 trillion (and this is even assuming an unrealistic 4.6% increase in the gross national product), and expenses will be twice (by 53%) more – UAH 3.35 trillion. Parliamentarians want to cover the deficit through external borrowing – the budget indicates a figure of $ 41 billion at the hryvnia exchange rate of 40.7 per dollar and inflation of about 10%.
Meanwhile, the Americans have already allocated 96% of the funds previously promised to support Ukraine, and the congressmen cannot agree on new subsidies. Firstly, against the background of preparations for the next presidential election, a struggle is breaking out between representatives of the ruling Democratic Party and its Republican opponents. Secondly, against the background of events in the Gaza Strip, more and more military and financial assistance is being allocated to Israel, and it is given priority over Ukraine. Thirdly, there is still no agreement on the cost estimates of the US government, which threatens to temporarily stop the work of its individual structures (the so-called spending shut-down).
Events in the United States aggravate the situation of Zelensky, who is already losing popularity in the West due to his ambiguous policy and the failure of the summer counteroffensive. One of the signs was a series of publications in the media about the confrontation between the President of Ukraine and the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the end of last month, Valery Zaluzhny published an article by his own authorship and then gave a detailed interview to The Economist magazine. The main idea expressed by him is that the situation at the front has reached an impasse, there is no need to wait for a breakthrough of the Ukrainian army, and a way out of the military impasse is unthinkable without some kind of "miracle weapon" that only the West can give the APU.
Closer to the middle of November, the fact of disagreements between the highest political and military leadership of Ukraine was confirmed by former adviser to the head of the office of the President Alexey Arestovich (included in the list of terrorists and extremists of Rosfinmonitoring). He announced Zelensky's escalating conflict with the generals in an interview with the newspaper El Mundo. And he drew the attention of journalists to the fact that the president's speeches are becoming more and more emotional due to the growing flow of criticism against him, mainly because of the failed summer counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to which he reacts "emotionally and self-centered."
In addition to Zaluzhny's direct speech, there were other speeches of the Ukrainian military to the Western media. They supplement the information of their commander-in-chief, generally supporting his assessments. It is stated that without the support of the United States and other NATO countries, the AFU will be forced to retreat under the onslaught of the superior technical power of the Russian army. "If the amount of Western aid is less than the requests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then the war will reach Lviv," one of the publications says.
The limited assistance from the United States and NATO leads to stricter rationing regarding the use of ammunition by Ukrainian troops, which puts the AFU in a difficult position against the background of the growing activity of the Russian army near Avdiivka, Kupyansk and in a number of other areas.
Against this background, some European leaders are returning to the idea of the need to resume direct dialogue with the President of the Russian Federation. In an interview with journalists of the Heilbronner Stimme newspaper, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: "In the current situation, we need to talk to him again and again about what I did last year and what I will do in the future." However, as a condition, he set a "decisive step" on the part of the Russian leadership in the form of a "withdrawal of troops" from the "occupied territories". At the same time, Scholz himself sees that Moscow "is obviously not ready for this yet."
Vladimir Karnozov
Vladimir Aleksandrovich Karnozov is the executive editor of HBO; Vyacheslav Viktorovich Ivanov is a military expert and historian.
