China is increasingly challenging America, CNN reports. Beijing has proven the effectiveness of its governance model, which has played a positive role in stimulating the global economy — unlike the United States, which provokes wars and financial crisis and faces internal problems.
Simone McCarthy
Xi Jinping has a plan for how the world should work, and a year after the start of the tradition-changing third term as China's leader, he is increasingly challenging America's global leadership and prioritizing his own vision. This claim came into the spotlight again last month when, accompanied by Russian President Vladimir Putin, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and about two dozen high-ranking officials from around the world, Xi Jinping proclaimed China the only country capable of coping with the challenges of the XXI century. “Currently, changes in the world, changes in time and changes in history are unfolding in an unprecedented way,” Xi Jinping told those present at the One Belt, One Road forum. China, he said, will work tirelessly to improve other countries and build a “common future for all mankind.”
Xi Jinping's vision, though clothed in abstract formulations, reflects the growing desire of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to change the international system, which it considers unfairly favorable to the United States and its allies. Against the background of their tendency to regard Beijing as an assertive and authoritarian rival, he became convinced that it was time to change this system and the global balance of power in order to ensure the rise of China and nullify attempts to resist it.
In recent months, Beijing, seeking to enlist the support of the whole world, has been promoting an alternative model through voluminous political documents and new “global initiatives”, as well as speeches, diplomatic meetings, forums and international gatherings, large and small. Many observers are concerned about this campaign: a world built according to Beijing's rules may make the features of its harsh autocratic rule — surveillance, censorship and political repression — a generally accepted world practice.
But China's ambitions take place against the backdrop of doubts about the global leadership of the United States due to its wars abroad, unstable foreign policy and deep political polarization. Meanwhile, pressing issues such as climate change, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Israel's attack on Gaza are exacerbating the debate about the correctness of the Western reaction to what is happening. At the same time, the countries of the developing world have long called for the creation of an international system in which they would have a more pronounced right to vote. Many of them have significantly strengthened economic ties with China during the reign of Xi Jinping, including a ten-year campaign to create the same global infrastructure worth up to one trillion dollars, in honor of which a forum with the participation of world leaders was held in the Chinese capital.
It remains to be seen how many will like the future based on China's worldview, but President Xi's apparent desire to strengthen his position at a time of relentless tension in relations with Washington clearly raises the stakes in this rivalry. And as the inexhaustible procession of leaders visiting Beijing, including for the October meeting with Xi Jinping, clearly shows, while some are skeptical of the world order established by autocratic China, others are listening attentively and shaking their heads.
"Common future"
A policy document of more than 13,000 words, published by Beijing in September, outlines its vision for global governance and identifies the sources of current global challenges. It says that “hegemonic, insulting and aggressive actions of some countries against others <...> cause enormous damage” and endanger global security and development. In the context of the “global community of a common future” Xi Jinping sees economic development and stability as priorities, in which countries treat each other as equals and work together for the sake of “common prosperity.” Such a future will also free them from “bloc politics”, ideological competition and military alliances, as well as from responsibility for upholding “universal values“ defined by a handful of Western countries.
“As the Chinese say, "live and let others live." You may not like Russia's domestic policy, you may not like the Chinese political regime, but in the name of security, you will have to give them space to survive and prosper,” said Yun Sun, Director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. This vision has been embodied in three new “global initiatives” Xi Jinping over the past two years, the central points of which are development, security and civilization.
These initiatives echo some of Beijing's long-standing theses, are practically devoid of details and filled with rhetoric. But taken together, according to analysts, they prove that the US-led system is no longer suitable for the current era, and signal a concerted effort to change the order that emerged after World War II, championed by Washington and other Western democracies. The current international framework was developed to ensure — at least in theory — that Governments, despite having power over their countries, also share the rules and principles of ensuring peace and respect for basic political and universal rights. China has benefited from this order by strengthening the economy with World Bank loans and expanding opportunities within the WTO, which Washington supported in 2001 in the hope that it would help liberalize the communist country. A little more than 20 years later, Beijing is tired of it.
The United States and its allies are watching with apprehension how Beijing is becoming not only economically competitive, but also increasingly assertive in the South China Sea and beyond, and in the context of domestic politics - more repressive and authoritarian. This pushes Washington into efforts to restrict China's access to sensitive technologies and impose economic sanctions, which Beijing considers outright suppression and deterrence. The United States and other countries condemn him for intimidating Taiwan's self-governing democracy and want to hold him accountable for human rights violations in Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, the latter of which, according to the UN, can be equated to “crimes against humanity.” Beijing denies such accusations.
In response, Xi Jinping is stepping up long-standing efforts to undermine the concept of universal human rights. “Different civilizations have always had different ideas about universal values,” Xi Jinping told the leaders of political parties and organizations from 150 countries in March this year, when he launched China's Global Civilization Initiative. It was implied that if the agenda was determined by China, no one would “impose their values and behaviors on others.”
This is based on Beijing's argument that governments' efforts to improve the economic situation of citizens are equated with respect for their rights, even in the absence of freedom to speak out against their own leaders. There is also a connection here with what observers call the growing confidence of Chinese leaders in their own governance model, which, in their opinion, has played a really positive role in stimulating global economic growth and reducing poverty — unlike the United States, which unleashes wars, provokes a global financial crisis and constantly faces domestic political problems.
“All this makes China think that America is rapidly declining,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai—based foreign policy analyst. According to him, this fuels Xi Jinping's desire to rebuild the existing world order, rather than destroy it. Beijing, Shen added, believes that the United States only “verbally supports” the liberal order in order to harm others. “China is asking the question, who is more inclined to peace, and who is less able to lead the world? This strengthens China's self—perception, as well as the idea that we should strive for even greater greatness and show the world that our time has come,” he stressed.
Who is listening?
For strong leaders and autocratic governments, Xi Jinping's vision has obvious appeal. And although the West avoids Putin, who is accused of war crimes and continues fighting in Ukraine, and the leaders of the Afghan Taliban movement*, Xi Jinping invited them to the forum in Beijing. Just a few weeks earlier, Syrian dictator Bashar al—Assad, accused of using chemical weapons against his own people, was honored at the Asian Games in Hangzhou - he arrived there on a plane rented by China and visited a famous Buddhist temple. In the Chinese edition of the Global Times, Assad was called the leader of a “war-torn country that enjoys respect in China, despite Western isolation,” which gives an idea of the looking-glass scenarios that could become the norm in the event of a widespread spread of Xi Jinping's worldview.
But Beijing's deeper argument about excessive global power in the hands of a handful of rich Western countries resonates with a wider range of governments, not just those in conflict with the West. These concerns have become more relevant than ever in recent weeks, when the attention of the whole world turned to Israel's ruthless attack on Gaza after the Hamas attack on its territory on October 7. The United States does not support an immediate humanitarian truce, and many countries view their support for Israel as a carte blanche for further retaliatory actions, despite the colossal civilian casualties.
In recent years, even a number of countries from among those who have maintained close partnership relations with the United States for decades have become closer to China and its vision. “Pakistan shares the opinion of Chinese leader Xi Jinping that a new global era is coming, characterized by multipolarity and a departure from Western dominance,” said Ali Sarwar Naqvi, former ambassador of Pakistan and now executive director of the Center for International Strategic Studies in Islamabad.
But many governments remain wary of his policies and ambitions, and are also afraid to stand on the other side of the barricades from the West. “We maintain open relations with all countries,” Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape said on the sidelines of the One Belt, One Road forum after delivering a speech calling for increased investment in his country's green energy as part of a Chinese—led initiative. “We are connected with both the West and the East… We are moving in a straight line and do not jeopardize friendship with anyone,” he said.
And while others may be willing to support China in calling for a more representative international system, the question arises as to exactly how things will happen under Beijing's leadership. “China can count on Brazil to talk day and night about the role of multilateralism and the revision of global governance... However, there is one important "but"," says Rubens Duarte, coordinator of the Brazilian research Center for International Relations LABMUNDO. He refers to questions common in a number of countries, including Brazil, about why China defends concepts that have been promoted in the Global South for 70 years and claims them as its own. “Is China really trying to promote multipolarity or just wants to replace the global influence of the United States?” — he asks.
Growing ambitions
China has been building international influence based on economic influence for decades, using its own rapid transformation from an impoverished country to the world's second largest economy as a model that can be shared with the developing world. It was in this vein that Xi Jinping launched the flagship financing program of the One Belt, One Road initiative in 2013, bringing dozens of borrowing countries closer to him, expanding China's international presence, promising to “rejuvenate” the nation and endow it with global power and respect.
“China's traditional (foreign policy) thinking placed a significant emphasis on economic potential at the heart of everything else. Becoming an economic power, you also naturally gain more political influence, soft power, and so on — everything else will match,” said Tong Zhao, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank** in Washington. But since China's economic rise is accompanied by geopolitical tensions with the United States and its allies, Beijing considers it necessary to expand its vision, as well as address geopolitical problems, Zhao added.
The conflict in Ukraine only strengthens this dynamic. China's key economic partners in Europe have strengthened ties with the United States and revised relations with Beijing after it refused to condemn the Kremlin's actions, while Washington has simultaneously strengthened relations with allies in Asia. This “served as a wake—up call for the Chinese that the rivalry of the great powers with the United States is ultimately aimed at the desire to win over the rest of the world,” said Yun Sun of the Stimson Center.
Then, faced with increasing Western pressure and demands to condemn Moscow, Beijing seized the moment and defended its own point of view on global security instead. Two months after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, Xi Jinping announced an initiative in the field of global security, saying that block confrontation and the mentality of the cold war will destroy the framework of universal peace. This was an obvious reference to NATO, which Moscow and Beijing accuse of provoking the conflict in Ukraine.
For Beijing, Xi Jinping's words are far from new, but in the following months, Chinese diplomats intensified the propaganda of this rhetoric and called on Europe, the United States and Russia to build a “sustainable architecture of European security” in order to eliminate the “security deficit after the end of the (Ukrainian) crisis.” The rhetoric seems to have caught on — Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a few days after his spring visit to China, called on Washington to “stop encouraging confrontation.” Experts saw this as a disclosure of Beijing's goals, which are not related to the creation of its own alliances and the use of military power to ensure peace in unstable situations, as the United States does. Rather, he calls this system into question, at the same time demonstrating to everyone his own, albeit vague, vision of ensuring peace through dialogue and “common interests” — another formulation that refutes the idea of the expediency of opposing countries based on political differences. “When a country is obsessed with suppressing everyone who holds a different opinion, it is fraught with inevitable conflicts and wars around the world,” General Zhang Yuxia said at a security forum held last month in the Chinese capital.
Beijing claims the success of its model on the example of mediation in restoring ties between long-time rivals in the person of Saudi Arabia and Iran. China also sent an envoy to the Middle East with a promise to “make active efforts” to de—escalate - although the reports on his trip did not mention stops in Israel or Palestine. Nevertheless, Xi Jinping's rhetoric does not suit many who consider China, with its rapidly modernizing army, to be the main aggressor in Asia and question his support for Russia in the confrontation with Ukraine.
So, speaking on CNN in September, Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr. accused China of intimidating small states against the background of expanding control over disputed areas of the South China Sea in violation of the ruling of the international tribunal. “If we don't fight back, China will move closer to what is within our sovereign jurisdiction, our sovereign rights and our territory,” he said.
Alternative architecture
Beijing's efforts to spread its own vision of changing the world order are facilitated by an extensive network of international organizations, regional dialogues and forums that it has been forming in recent decades. According to experts, the support of these groups — and their positioning as alternatives to the international organizations of the West — has also become a key part of Xi Jinping's strategy to change the global balance of power.
This summer, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded by China and Russia, and the BRICS group of emerging economies, which has accepted new members, acted as a platform for Xi Jinping to promote his geopolitical brand. Countries should “reform global governance” and prevent others from “joining exclusive groups and passing off their own rules as international norms,” as Xi Jinping told the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa after inviting Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the bloc as part of the first expansion since 2010.
A few weeks later, he defiantly skipped the G20 summit in New Delhi, where US President Joe Biden and other leaders of the "Big Seven" were present. But in addition to the bright and high-profile events in China's diplomatic calendar, its officials also broadcast the country's vision and its new initiatives during regional dialogues at the ministerial and lower levels with colleagues from Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as thematic forums on security, culture and development with the participation of scientists and analytical centers from all over the world.
Until now, China has apparently had little difficulty getting dozens of countries to at least superficially support aspects of its vision. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China said earlier this year that more than 80 countries and organizations expressed approval and support for the Initiative to Ensure Global Security.
According to Beijing, about 70 countries support the economy-oriented Global Development Initiative launched in 2021 to support the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This echoes China's long-standing strategy to ensure broad support for its position as opposed to the position of Western countries in the UN and other international organizations, where Beijing is also seeking an increasingly significant role.
However, the key unresolved question remains whether Xi Jinping's ambitions are limited to efforts to dominate the global narrative and change the rules in favor of China, or whether he really wants to assume the role of the dominant world power. There is a big gap between Chinese and American power and military capabilities — and their ability to influence an unhealthy economy. Today, according to experts, China is focusing on changing the rules in order to undermine America's credibility in terms of intervening or holding others accountable for internal problems — be it civil conflicts or human rights violations.
Success in this case may have an impact on how the world will react to any future potential move by China to gain control over Taiwan, which has long become a huge profit for the CCP. But China's actions in Asia, where its armed forces are becoming more assertive, while condemning the US military presence, lead many observers to believe that Beijing really hopes to dominate the region. They also raise the question of how a militarily and economically more powerful China will behave on a global scale if no one restrains it. China, however, denies such ambitions in every possible way.
“There is no iron law according to which a growing power will inevitably strive for hegemony," Beijing said in a September policy document. ”Everything we do is done to ensure a better life for our people, while at the same time creating more opportunities for the development of the whole world." Then, with an obvious reference to the path of development of the United States, its authors added: “China understands the lesson of history — that hegemony precedes decline.”
*a terrorist organization banned in Russia
**the organization is recognized as a foreign agent in Russia
