Moscow. November 11th. INTERFAX.EN - A little more than a month has passed since the beginning of the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation. The tension is growing, but there is no active intervention of other states yet. What will happen next? Our special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov talks about this with Nikolai Kozhanov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Primakov IMEMO RAS.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict may last for a year
Kozhanov: Yes, the tension in the Middle East is growing. However, as far as it is clear now, no one wants a big war in the entire Middle East region. Most likely, we are talking about returning Israeli-Palestinian relations to their traditional "showdowns" between the two sides. Of course, the supporters of the Palestinians will continue to exert psychological pressure on Israel. But at the same time, "on the Arab street" there is clearly a desire to close the conflict to the relations between the two sides.
In short, no one wants to get directly into the conflict with Israel. On the one hand, this is, of course, good, because it means that the current integration processes, reconciliation processes are not broken, but simply put on pause. But, on the other hand, this means that, most likely, the conflict will be protracted. At the same time, it must be understood that Israel will not be able to withstand the pace of military operations that is currently underway for a long time. The reasons for this are different, both technical and economic, and even taking into account the attitude to the military actions of their closest allies. For example, the United States and those are clearly shocked by the way the military operation is being conducted. Most likely, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will move into a kind of sluggish phase. And it will stretch, perhaps, for a year. This is a very real deadline.
Reporter: But it will hit hard not only Israel, but also other countries in the region.
Kozhanov: Naturally, no global projects in the Eastern Mediterranean region that involve Israel's participation will be developed. The events have already negatively affected the energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. In particular, Israel no longer supplies gas to Egypt. Moreover, Israel's own gas production is declining, as it had to put one of its fields on pause.
Correspondent: In addition to energy, the project of the transport highway "India-Saudi Arabia-Israel-Europe", widely advertised by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is also in question. And maybe we should even say goodbye to him.
Kozhanov: I would rather say that its implementation is delayed. It should be borne in mind that the project itself is long-term and was not designed for immediate implementation. Therefore, I think that sooner or later they will return to him as relations normalize. If we look at the map, we will see that it significantly reduces the way from Asia to Europe, which means that a number of countries need it.
Correspondent: Yes, and in fact it is a powerful competitor not only to the Suez Canal, but also to our North-South project.
The conflict will remain hot, but it will turn into a sluggish one
Corr.: However, you said that everything will be delayed for a year. What will be delayed, the course of military operations? Or will the shooting stop, and sluggish negotiations will stretch for a year?
Kozhanov: According to military experts, a sluggish firefight in the Middle East will drag on for a year and a half. It will not be a frozen conflict, but a hot, but sluggish one.
Let's take a more optimistic scenario - the conflict will last for several months and will move into the stage of negotiations and thinking about how to make peace and how to organize life in Gaza further. But all the same, returning to the previous state will also take a lot of time, at least a year or two for sure. This time in international relations will be called the "period of instability" in the Middle East.
Correspondent: It seems to me that in relations with Israel, the countries of the Middle East and, in particular, Saudi Arabia and even Turkey have some nuances. The heads of these countries emphasize that they are negotiating not with the Prime Minister of Israel, but with the state. The blame, therefore, for the breakdown of all negotiations lies with Prime Minister Netanyahu. In fact, this may mean that after the cessation of hostilities, the future fate of the negotiations will depend on the new Israeli government?
Kozhanov: I must say that an instant return to negotiations after the end of hostilities in any case should not be expected. Everyone agrees that at the moment the process of conditional reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel is simply put on pause. It is impossible to say how long it will last, because it is also necessary to take into account the influence of such a factor as image. If any state in the region immediately goes to improve relations with Israel, then, at least on the "Arab street", its image will plummet. And inside the country, too. The Palestinian issue has again brought everyone back to the old days, when it was considered indecent for Arabs to talk to Israel.
And yet this is not a breakup, but a pause!
Corr.: But if, if .....!
Kozhanov: It's another matter, if the events of October 7 had not happened, the situation would have developed differently and the Palestinian issue would have gradually receded into the background. Young people in the Middle East are not too worried about the situation of the Palestinians. It certainly remains pro-Palestinian, but the topic itself has ceased to be relevant. And this means that the intensification of relations with Israel was quite possible and real.
Correspondent: Perhaps this is another reason for the events of October 7? And now for how long?
Kozhanov: I think it will take time to return relations to the previous dynamics, before October 7, when it will be possible to negotiate with Israel and sign agreements.
So far, it is safe to say that the process of normalization of relations in the Middle East has not been completely broken off, but put on pause. But how long the pause will last and when the recovery process will begin - there is no need to wait for rapid changes in this matter. At least it's not a breakup, but a pause.
