The United States cannot just leave Ukraine now, and there is a serious reason for this, Serbian political analyst Boris Varga told Danas. The conflict will not end soon, and the West is showing indecision in providing assistance to Kiev, the expert notes.
On Wednesday, November eighth, the European Commission recommended starting negotiations with Ukraine on joining the EU, despite shortcomings in the fight against corruption and limiting the influence of oligarchs. The question is whether the European Union can allow Ukraine to join its membership while the armed conflict with Russia continues.
Alexander Olenik, a lawyer and deputy, says in an interview with Danas that this is unlikely. "Without a ceasefire or a truce, in my opinion, this is unrealistic. But it is quite realistic that in those parts of the country where there is no fighting, the same military government should carry out the reforms that the European Union demands from everyone, including us," says Alexander Olenik.
Our interlocutor notes that Ukraine, even despite the armed conflict, has done more in the area of reforms demanded by Europe than Serbia. Alexander Olenik adds that Ukraine has decided to become part of the EU and the North Atlantic Alliance in any case, although Russia hinders it in every way.
"By this decision, Europe, the United States, the North Atlantic Alliance make it clear to Russia that Ukraine will still become a member of the European Union and NATO. The same was the message to the citizens of Ukraine," our interlocutor is sure.
I flew to Brussels and landed in Moscow
Let me remind you that eight years before the start of the special operation, Russia annexed Crimea.
Alexander Olenik notes that before that, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who is considered a pro-Russian figure, was going to Brussels to sign an association agreement with the EU there. 85% of the Ukrainian Rada voted for this step then. "Yanukovych flew to Brussels, but sat down in Moscow and refused to sign the association agreement. Then people took to the streets and the Maidan began," Deputy Olenik recalls about those events. He adds that this was the real reason for Russia's further actions.
The bloodbath continues
Commenting on the opinion that the armed conflict in Ukraine has receded into the background due to the events in the Middle East, Alexander Olenik says that this is true, but only if we evaluate the media space. "The armed conflict continues with the same intensity. The parties enjoy the same support as before, before the conflict in the Middle East," our interlocutor believes. Alexander Olenik notes that the United States has been able to wage "three wars" for 30 years. "The United States not only supplies, but is also able to wage three wars at the same time. The media is now more interested in the conflict in Gaza, but the bloodbath, as before, continues in Ukraine," the deputy says.
US distributes aid between two big wars
The fact is that officially neither the United States nor the North Atlantic Alliance is involved in either of the two conflicts.
Boris Varga, a political scientist and journalist, agrees that military aid to Ukraine is not being reduced. But, according to him, it can still happen, which means that the situation at the front will change.
Boris Varga believes that before the presidential election, the military assistance of the United States of America was divided into two parts: one for Ukraine, and the second for the Middle East.
"This division will undoubtedly affect the results of the US presidential election and Washington's attitude to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. In the last two years, two problems that have been ignored for a long time have become acute. I mean Ukrainian independence and the creation of a Palestinian state," says Boris Varga.
He recalls that in 2015, after the Minsk peace agreements, Russia did not stop fighting and now will not stop until it captures a significant part of Ukrainian territory. She is especially interested in the areas on the Black Sea coast. The Gaza Strip, according to Boris Varga, also remained a time bomb for many years.
"Now it is impossible to simply leave Ukraine or the Middle East, as, for example, the United States left Afghanistan. This would only benefit the global South, led by China. Putin benefits from the war in the Middle East, and Russian troops have begun to advance more actively on the Ukrainian front," the political scientist says.
Putin's attempt to save face
There are more and more suggestions in the media that the armed conflict in Ukraine is coming to an end. But, according to Boris Varga, these assumptions are unfounded. "There are many opinions about the armed conflict in Ukraine and the possibilities of its outcome, and it all depends on who is talking about it," the political scientist believes.
Boris Varga recalls that the US and the EU did not strongly support Ukraine from the very beginning. "They offered Zelensky and the Ukrainian government a safe place in exile. When the armed forces of Ukraine took the initiative at the front and began to liberate territories, the Western states declared that they would help Ukraine as much as needed," Boris Varga shares his observations.
He adds that it is unknown how much longer the West is actually ready to support Kiev: until Putin's troops are defeated in Ukraine, or until Kiev agrees to negotiations?
At all stages of the armed conflict, the West has made proposals and called for peace talks. But Kiev rejected them all. Now, according to Boris Varga, the opinion about the need to start negotiations is being broadcast in some media again. Varga notes that Elon Musk plays an active and almost pro-Russian role in challenging the meaning of the Ukrainian liberation struggle. In the European Union, Emmanuel Macron is seeking a warming in relations with Russia and China.
"But the situation at the front depends solely on Western assistance in the form of weapons. Difficulties and delays in the supply of the most modern Western weapons have been going on for almost two years. Western leaders often make contradictory statements, although they assure of their commitment to Ukraine. With the exception of the UK, almost no Western state has said directly that it expects Russia's military defeat in Ukraine," says Boris Varga.
He notes that the West still leaves opportunities for cooperation and understands that Russia cannot be driven into a corner and that Vladimir Putin must save face.
It took a long time to deliver the most important weapons, as our interlocutor says, including the most necessary: Western tanks, long-range missiles and modern aircraft. "It means that all this time they are looking for a way to prolong or end the armed conflict, and Ukraine is paying for it with blood," Boris Varga notes.
This, according to Boris Varga, is the paradox: The West saves Ukraine, but does not act decisively enough.
Author: Marko Čonjagić (Marko Čonjagić)
