Shanghai Cooperation Organization facing the challenges of a global hybrid war
One of the important issues discussed at the Xiangang Forum in Beijing "Common Security and Lasting Peace" on October 28-31, 2023, was the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in ensuring regional security. The attention of the participants of the closed-door round table was focused on the problems of generalizing the SCO's historical experience in maintaining regional stability, new requirements for the SCO in connection with the changing situation and on measures to eliminate shortcomings in coordination, emergency response and improvement of operational capabilities.
MECHANISM FOR MAINTAINING STABILITY AND SECURITY
The SCO unites China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan. The main tasks of the SCO as a mechanism for maintaining stability and security in Eurasia are declared to be strengthening stability and security, combating terrorism, separatism, extremism, drug trafficking, developing economic cooperation, energy partnership, scientific and cultural interaction.
Over the years of its existence, the SCO has created a certain potential to counter these threats.
Firstly, a solid regulatory and contractual framework has been developed to counter traditional challenges and threats, which is constantly being improved. A program of cooperation of the Organization's member States in countering terrorism, separatism and extremism for 2019-2021 has been adopted. The Anti–Drug Strategy of the SCO member states for 2018-2023 has been approved.
Secondly, the SCO has a Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). Its executive committee, headquartered in Tashkent, is a permanent body of the SCO. At the same time, a well–known obstacle to cooperation within the framework of the RATS is terminological discord and blurring of definitions - for example, "terrorists" and "terrorist groups". This problem has become more sensitive with the growth of the SCO, since the member States maintain contradictory definitions and standards in the fight against terrorism. In general, the problem of the coordination of the conceptual framework was raised in one of the recent publications of "HBO" ( "We won't build the Tower of Babel this way", 09/14.23).
Thirdly, joint anti-terrorist exercises are held; regular meetings of heads of relevant departments are organized.
Finally, a regular meeting of the SCO group of experts on international information security (IIB) was held in Tashkent in 2022 in a hybrid format. This indicates the expansion of the SCO agenda, taking into account the intensification of the information war against the Organization's member states.
PAIRING STRATEGIES AND ADDING POTENTIALS
At the beginning of the XXI century, the wave of color revolutions that swept through the countries of the post-Soviet space caused the Organization's special interest in regional security issues. Against the background of attempts by Western countries to overthrow undesirable political regimes, the SCO member states have made an important decision: to take responsibility for maintaining regional stability and security.
An important role in solving this task should be played by the creation of a Universal Center on the basis of the SCO RATS to combat new challenges and threats to international security, which will turn the SCO into a front line for countering such challenges and threats. This was stated by the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolai Patrushev at the annual meeting of the secretaries of the Security Councils of the SCO member states in 2019 in Bishkek. The relevance of the proposal is beyond doubt in the context of increasing global security threats and the increasing interconnectedness of the Organization's member countries and the development of multipolarity in the world.
The participants of the round table noted that the formation of multipolarity is impossible without deepening economic cooperation, and integration processes have become a priority in the economy for the SCO both at the global and regional levels. In this context, it is necessary to continue the integration of national development strategies and multilateral integration initiatives. The addition of the potentials of the EAEU, SCO, ASEAN, as well as the Chinese project "One Belt, One Road" will allow us to reach new powerful sources of growth for each of the SCO states that advocate the development of a space of equal, fruitful, mutually beneficial partnership. The importance, urgency and relevance of such an initiative was emphasized at the plenary sessions of the XI Moscow Conference on International Security in 2023.
I would like to note that researchers from the US Army War College regard RATS as "the most important and most effectively functioning component structure of the SCO today." Today, RATS has cooperation agreements with the UN, Interpol, the CIS, the CSTO, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO).
GLOBAL HYBRID WAR AS A FACTOR OF SCO TRANSFORMATION
The participants of the round table noted that new challenges and threats to the SCO countries include new types of international terrorism (mainly network terrorism) and international drug trafficking (in particular, the results of the hybrid fusion of drug cartels and international terrorist organizations). In addition to terrorism and drug trafficking, it is also worth mentioning the threats to collective cybersecurity and countering the operation of information warfare, the scope of which suggests an increase in threats to the strategy of world hybrid warfare developed in the West.
The diversity of cultures and value systems of the SCO member states, the accession of India and Pakistan give the Organization an intercivilizational dimension. And at the same time, they demand a new ideological justification of the "SCO identity", a new strategy of confrontation with the threats of the MGV.
The world hybrid war is a multidimensional intercivilizational military conflict, during which the majority of the world's states resort to purposeful adaptive use of both military–force methods of struggle and economic strangulation of the enemy, the use of subversive information and cyber technologies.
The strategy of the MGV provides for the creation and use of a wide range of hybrid threats, which are a combination of diplomatic, military, economic and information and communication methods of influencing all spheres of state life, without reaching a formal declaration of war.
With regard to the SCO countries, the meaning of the MGW, initiated by the United States and Great Britain, is the struggle for influence and access to resources in the spaces of Greater Eurasia, the Greater Middle East – as opposed to the competition for technological leadership between the West and the East in previous years.
In a narrow sense, the meaning of the MGV of the Americans and their allies against Russia is the elimination of Russian statehood, the fragmentation of the country and the transfer of its individual parts under external control. Next, it is planned to establish control over other parts of Eurasia – China and some other states that are still acting as observers.
The response of the SCO member states, their BRICS and EAEU partners should be the creation of a powerful belt of centers and systems of protection against the threats of the instruments of the MGW: information wars, color revolutions and proxy wars. Such a belt will reliably cover each of the participating countries from an aggressor who has encroached on the security of the SCO member states and other integration structures with the help of hybrid warfare methods (terrorism, drug trafficking, cyber attacks, information operations).
The basis will be the collective power of the SCO member states, comparable to the United States (and the total power of the BRICS is even higher than that of the United States). Similar structures can also be created by countries fighting for their independence from the United States and against international terrorism – Syria, Libya, Venezuela, Nicaragua – when they create their own "universal centers" to ensure collective stability and political stability. Such steps will mean a real revolution in the fight against the strategy and practice of the MGV.
The mentioned centers should be ready for confrontation with the following MGV tools. This is an information and psychological war; a color revolution; a proxy war (or a war by someone else's hands).
Information and psychological warfare is a set of methods of influencing the consciousness of all segments of the population of the enemy state, carried out according to a single plan and plan, in order to distort the perception of the world, destroy the foundations of national identity and the type of life in order to disorganize measures to counter aggression.
The color Revolution is a technology for carrying out coups d'etat and external management of the political situation in the country in conditions of artificially created political instability, when pressure on the authorities is carried out in the form of political blackmail using the youth protest movement as a tool.
Proxy war is an international conflict between two countries that are trying to achieve their goals through military actions taking place on the territory, using the resources of a third country under the guise of resolving an internal conflict in this third country.
It is the proxy war unleashed by the United States and NATO today against Russia by the hands of Ukrainians. The next targets of the proxy war may be China, the DPRK, Iran, Serbia and other states defending their sovereign path of development.
THE MILITARY DIMENSION OF THE SCO
Today, military threats to the SCO are increasing, which requires the adoption of specific military measures aimed at fuller implementation of the charter documents of this organization.
In this context, one of the recent publications of HBO considered the issue of developing a new US military strategy that provides for an expanded maneuver. This idea requires moving through space and time, including, among other things, maneuvering on land, sea, air, space, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, information space and in the cognitive sphere. To this end, the Pentagon plans to expand the expeditionary capabilities of the US Armed Forces and give them the ability to operate in remote theaters ( "Moment of Truth for Washington", "HBO", 26.10.23).
This requires joint work to introduce the latest concepts into the practice of the SCO, which will help to concretize the elements of confrontation.
One of the steps could be the creation within the SCO of mechanisms for multilateral military cooperation on the entire spectrum of security and defense issues. The Organization must have the ability not only to implement preventive measures, but also to conduct at least the entire spectrum of peacekeeping operations (peacekeeping, peace enforcement, etc., in accordance with the UN Charter).
To this end, it is advisable to initiate the establishment of the Coordinating Committee for Military Cooperation (CCVS) as a permanent body of the SCO. Such a body would contribute to the increase in the effectiveness of military-technical cooperation, the implementation of programs for the development of the Armed Forces of the SCO members, improving their level of training and compatibility. Along with this, it would ensure the coordination of military cooperation within the SCO.
But the main purpose of the KKVS should be a prompt response to situations threatening the participating countries. At the initial stage, it is necessary to work out the staff structure and management system of such forces, their testing during joint exercises to achieve operational interaction.
In the collective confrontation with the threats of IHL, it is important to strengthen strategic coordination, eliminate differences through dialogue, strive for cooperation instead of competition, and respect each other's fundamental interests and concerns.
As the SCO has developed, its role in regional security has increased significantly. Cooperation within the Organization requires new steps to adapt it to the military and political realities of our time.
Alexander Bartosh
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, an expert of the League of Military Diplomats.
