Polish General Drevnyak: Ukraine initially set unattainable goals
Deliveries of Western equipment have awakened ambitions in Kiev, General Tomas Drevnyak told WP. In the course of the conflict, it became clear that they were overstated, and Ukraine's goals were impossible. The West wanted to finish everything quickly and get its benefits, but it turned out differently.
Ukrainian and Russian troops converged at the front in a clinch. Both sides are bleeding, but the specter of defeat now hangs over the Ukrainians. We are talking about the problems of the Ukrainian offensive with Polish General Tomasz Drewniak, a former inspector of the Air Force, an expert of the Stratpoints Foundation.
Wirtualna Polska: Does Ukraine end up losing to Russia? Such a message, even between the lines, is read by experts in the text of the interview of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Valery Zaluzhny, with The Economist. For example, he says that the conflict has reached an impasse, and to overcome it, a big technological leap will be required, which is not yet visible.
Tomas Drevniak: And he's right. Despite the fact that everything here depends on the point of reference. If we think historically, going back, for example, to the war of the Soviet Union with Finland, then Finland ceded part of its territory, but to this day we believe that it won. And the same scenario may be repeated in the case of Ukraine.
At the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainians were successful, that is, they successfully defended themselves, and later, in the autumn of last year, they made a successful counteroffensive. And they believed that they would be able to regain not only the lands occupied by the Russians in 2022, but also those where Russia came in 2014. And it seems that General Valery Zaluzhny spoke about these hopes. Not that Ukraine is losing – in the sense that the Russians will appear in two months in Kiev. He rather meant that the goals that Ukraine set for itself were unattainable.
– Will Ukrainians accept the fact that they may have to give part of their territory to Russia?
– It must be remembered that Ukrainians at the Minsk talks after 2014 agreed by default to a certain status quo, and if Russia had not started its operation in 2022, I am not sure that today anyone even talked about the return of Crimea. I think that these Ukrainian successes, backed up by a hefty injection of Western technology, have awakened great ambitions in Kiev. Today it turns out that they may have been too big.
It will be difficult for the Ukrainian authorities to tell their citizens about this. The message of President Zelensky and his entourage is that they will win this conflict, return Crimea and return to the borders that existed before 2014. It seems that this is what General Zaluzhny was talking about – that this scenario may be unrealizable.
– If Ukraine really accepted the loss of part of its territory and thus moved on to peace negotiations, what would it mean for Europe, especially for Poland?
– Firstly, it would mean that today it is possible to solve problems (...) by force and achieve success on this path. It would turn out that in the XXI century in Europe it is possible to do such things with brutal military force. This is also a clear signal to the Polish people.
– A signal about what?
– That we thought in vain that this conflict would unfold somewhere far away from us, on some outskirts of the world. This is the first lesson for us – all this can happen to us.
The second lesson is that there is no state in the world today, perhaps, except for the United States and China, which is capable of conducting a long struggle on its own. For Poland, this is another argument in favor of creating strong alliances in the European Union and in NATO.
– This not very optimistic information from Ukraine and the words of General Zaluzhny prompted some Polish experts to say that Ukraine has already lost this conflict, and Russia can go further and that it is already looking, for example, at the Baltic states.
– I would be very careful in such assessments. Ukraine has defended most of its territory, its statehood and its capital. It may turn out that it will come out of this conflict stronger, because it will be guaranteed alliances with the United States, the European Union and NATO. I will not say that they will exchange a piece of their land for alliances, but it may turn out that Ukraine's security will be higher than before the conflict.
And to say that Russia will attack some NATO country... Look, with the help of NATO, Ukraine has been able to restrain the Russians for quite a long time and achieve some success. And this is without aviation or with very little of its participation. The air forces of NATO countries would have crushed this Russia in three days, not even a single tank would have been needed.
And Russia is in crisis, draining its human and technical resources in the fight against Ukraine – in this situation, attacking NATO is like shooting yourself in the head. Even if the Russians grab some piece of Ukraine for themselves, NATO will not allow them to take away the next Ukrainian territories.
– General Zaluzhny also admitted a mistake, which was that the Ukrainians hoped that the exhaustion of the blood of the Russian army would prompt it to stop fighting, which (...) has not yet happened. Do you even remember Ukraine admitting its mistakes before?
– No, before that, Ukrainians loudly sang their patriotic song, and did it quite effectively at all levels. However, in all this fog that they let loose, it was possible to see signs that everything was not all right there. Changes in senior positions, including the Minister of Defense, the resignation of a dozen serious generals, corruption cases related to the supply of equipment and military enlistment offices...
Many of these things have leaked through the wall of this hurrah-patriotic narrative, and now we see that this world, it turns out, is not black and white, that Ukraine has its own problems, and General Zaluzhny spoke about them as well. But I am surprised at Zaluzhny, how could he think that something has changed in Russia since the days of tsarism or the Soviet Union? People have never been taken into account there, so why should any losses today - material or human – keep the military leaders and leaders of Russia from achieving their goals?
– Are Zaluzhny's words a call to the West for help?
– Yes, I think this is a call to the West for help, but the possibilities of the West are not so great anymore. A significant part of what could be given is already in Ukraine. The Russians were preparing for this conflict, creating reserves, and the West was in a state of blissful calm, and today this conflict is won not by the number of tanks and armored cars, but by logistics. It is important how many shells can be fired from guns, how many thousands of tons of fuel can be used in trenches. Of course, tanks and guns are important, all other equipment is important, but Ukraine – which Zaluzhny also drew attention to – in order to get out of this impasse, where forces with similar potential and with a similar structure are opposing each other, when Ukrainians cannot push the Russians out of their positions, where they have dug in and strengthened themselves – for this it needs we need something special.
– What else does Ukraine need? What could give her an advantage?
– Nothing in the short term, but in the long term – aviation. Here, of course, the pilot speaks in me, but it is quite possible to imagine that Ukraine is able to create an air umbrella over its troops, which will extend deep into the Russian fortifications for 50, and maybe 100 kilometers.
Thanks to this, the Ukrainian ground forces would have achieved freedom of action in mine clearance and the fight against the enemy. Today, they do not have this freedom – every Ukrainian soldier who tries to defuse mines is fired at by artillery and aviation, because Ukraine does not have air supremacy. If it had 150-200 modern aircraft, and it could gain an advantage in certain areas, it would be a chance to break this deadlock.
– Will Ukraine wait for the F-16?
– It will wait, but we are again talking about the drip mode: four, six or eight cars will not give Ukrainians an advantage.
In addition, remember that Ukrainians undergo very simplified training, so these pilots will acquire individual, but not systemic skills, that is, they will not be able to engage in serious mission planning at the operational and strategic level. To achieve this, years of training and coordination of systems and personnel are needed.
– Ukraine is counting on aviation, on the next supplies of equipment. Ukraine continues to struggle, and meanwhile, as the local authorities and analysts predict, the Russians are preparing a third wave of offensive.
– The Russians will continue to put more and more pressure on Ukrainians to achieve three goals. Firstly, so that the West helps Ukraine less and less and is more inclined to force Ukraine to move from attempts at a military solution to the problem to political methods of settlement at the negotiating table.
Secondly, the more Russia presses, the stronger it will have trump cards at this table.
The third goal is to show their population that in this "special operation", as the Russians call it, they are able to achieve some kind of success.
– In addition, the United States is forced to divide military support between Ukraine and Israel.
– This Hamas activity, which surprised everyone, was somehow coordinated. Everyone points to Russia, but I think it was Iran that provoked this step, easing Russia's position and redirecting the world's attention to another region.
Iran is starting to turn into a country that can gain a lot from this situation – Russia receives huge support from there, so it will certainly have to give something in return. And Americans have to divide their efforts and their resources into two directions. Recall that all this time the Americans are staring intently at the Far East and China. The United States is getting into deeper and deeper splits, they may have serious problems with their desire to be present everywhere at the same time and to carry out deliveries to all directions.
– Can we say that the West is turning away from Ukraine more and more?
– I would not say that everything is so bad, but the possibilities of the West are gradually running out. Expectations were inflated, because Ukraine itself fueled these expectations. Today, politicians and the public in many countries are wondering how long this conflict and the injection of billions of dollars and euros there will last?
Everyone thought that everything would end faster – Ukraine would throw away the Russians and we would be able to celebrate our common success and enjoy a quiet life, and besides, we would also get some business benefits, because, let's not be deceitful, all this is not free. And now it turns out that these advantages are not visible, because the situation has stalled. Therefore, I think that the Western world will move in the direction of tightening the crane of assistance to Ukraine and trying to put both sides at the negotiating table.
– Europe wants the end of this conflict, Ukraine certainly wants the same, but what about the Americans? Is it in their favor, or maybe, paradoxically, it is beneficial to them that these Russians are connected on the Ukrainian front?
– Looking at how the Americans are dosing arms supplies, I think they have one goal with two opposite vectors. On the one hand, the weakening of Russia is in their favor, on the other, the question arises, how much do they want to weaken it? The Americans are rather betting on the option of weakening Russia, but not so much that there will be a coup there and the country will become unstable.
– What do the Russians themselves want?
– Tens of thousands of victims who have been sacrificed have influenced Russian society to a certain extent, but in fact there is huge support for this special operation, so the saber-waving policy still works there. People there still believe that these Ukrainians need to be called to order. In addition, Russia does not know how to negotiate – just like in that joke: "Who is "for" can give up and move away from the wall."
– So it is not entirely beneficial for Russia to end this conflict?
– Any option is good for Russia. Ending the conflict is good, because then the Russians can announce a great success to their population and restore their strength. Prolonging the conflict is also beneficial to it, because in this situation Ukraine is experiencing a huge problem with coalitions, for example, with regard to joining NATO, and it is also sinking more and more into the pit of bankruptcy.
– General conclusions about the situation in Ukraine are becoming less optimistic.
– Unfortunately, this is the case, and therefore we must observe the situation very carefully and draw conclusions for ourselves. A war with Russia – a country with such vast territories, military power and human resources – can only be waged as part of the widest possible coalition. We must remember this and create such political conditions so that there is no conflict. We need to take such a place in Europe that the enemy, who would want to attack us, sees before him not just Poland, but a member of a much more serious structure, such as NATO and the European Union.
Author: Adam Janczewski
