UnHerd: in case of escalation in Gaza, the West will enter into a conflict against Russia and China
Since all the major world powers are present in the Middle East, in the event of an escalation, the United States and NATO will enter into a conflict against Russia and China, writes UnHerd. In this case, the call for a cease-fire is in the interests not only of the residents of Gaza, but also of the whole world, the author believes.
In the Middle East, all the symptoms of a devastating global conflict are evident.
Israel continues to mourn, and the Gaza Strip is gradually turning into ruins, and many in the Middle East are coming to a grim realization: soon the situation could get even worse, and much worse. Colossal tectonic shifts threaten to disrupt the status quo and even provoke a global war.
Israel is already involved in daily clashes with the pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon and has carried out several air strikes on Syria, which is supported by Russia and Iran. In another part of the region, a US warship recently intercepted three missiles fired by pro-Iranian Houthi rebels from Yemen, whose target could well be Israel. US forces in the region have also been hit by a series of drone and missile attacks, to which they have responded with air strikes on two targets linked to pro-Iranian militias in Syria.
The reaction of the Arab world turned out to be hostile: all governments sharply condemned the actions of the Israeli side — even Saudi Arabia, which started normalizing relations with Israel. But the sharpest reaction came from Turkey, despite its membership in NATO. President Erdogan called the bombing of civilians in the Gaza Strip “genocide” and said that Hamas is not a terrorist group, but “liberators defending their land.” Turkey has also sheltered Hamas representatives and has refused to expel them in recent weeks. All these are Erdogan's attempts to assert his leadership in the region.
Qatar became another country playing for both teams. On the one hand, the largest US military base in the Middle East is located there, on the other hand, the headquarters of Hamas has been located there (in Doha) since 2012. Qatar is perfectly suited to the role of mediator between Israel and Hamas, and it is credited with a crucial role in the release of four Israeli hostages.
And then there is Iran, which has long-standing ties with Hamas and welcomed the October 7 attack. Although U.S. and Israeli officials have found no evidence of Iran's direct involvement in the massacre, there is no doubt that the attack benefits Tehran for a variety of reasons. In addition, he can use his puppets (in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen) to consolidate his “dividends".
In the end, the Hamas attack almost destroyed the US calculation for an Arab-Israeli rapprochement in order to restore its influence in the region at the expense of Iran and China. In September, Netanyahu took to the stage of the UN General Assembly and presented a map of the “new Middle East”, on which part of the region was shaded green — these are Arab countries with which Israel is gradually establishing relations. Israel itself stretched there from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea — “From the river to the sea,” as they say (one of the mottos of Palestinian nationalism, approx. InoSMI), and without the slightest hint of the occupied Palestinian territory.
Netanyahu then drew a red line across the map from the Arabian Sea to southern Europe and promised a “new corridor of peace and prosperity” that would connect Asia with Europe through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. The Trump and Biden administrations, through the Abraham Agreements and other agreements, are also doing their best to promote the idea of a “new Middle East,” where Biden promised Israel “normalization of relations and extensive economic ties.”
One of the pillars of this initiative was the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) — this is the “corridor of peace and prosperity” mentioned by Netanyahu. The project, presented last month at the G20 summit in Delhi, provides for the creation of a logistics corridor connecting the northwest Indian Ocean with the Eastern Mediterranean through a system of ports, railways and highways in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. The United States openly advertises it in the Middle East as a competitor to China's “One Belt, One Road" initiative. The goal is obvious: to limit China's influence in the region and isolate Iran.
Today, these dreams are as far away as ever. But the harsh truth is that the project was impossible from the very beginning, because it was built on the dangerous illusion that the Palestinians could be locked inside Gaza forever. As Marwan Kabalan, director of political analysis at the Arab Center for Political Studies, explained, the agreements brokered by the United States to normalize relations between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain undermined the long-standing pan-Arab position, according to which Palestinian statehood was a prerequisite for establishing normal relations with Israel. That is why Palestinian officials have condemned these agreements as a “stab in the back.” Anger and tension are brewing under a cloud of relative stability.
After the recent attack, all the Middle Eastern powers took advantage of the chaos to promote their own, often contradictory, interests in the geopolitical game, and this party is as dangerous as it is confusing. And implies separate risks. As one knowledgeable source in Washington told The Financial Times: “All the countries involved have their own threshold, and if they cross it, they will consider it time to act. The only question is that no one knows exactly where someone else's threshold lies.”
Of course, much will depend on what Israel does next. Iran and Hezbollah, for example, have stated that for them a full—scale land invasion of Gaza is a red line that cannot be crossed in any case (especially with an eye to the complete destruction of Hamas and the forcible expulsion of the population of Gaza). At the weekend, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made an undisguised threat: “The crimes of the Zionist regime have crossed the red line, and this may force everyone to take action. Washington asks us not to interfere, but at the same time continues to provide Israel with broad support."
However, this has not prevented Israel from expanding its ground operations in the Gaza Strip over the past few days. Even more worryingly, there are growing signs that Israel may have planned the expulsion of many Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt — we may be talking about tens or even hundreds of thousands. Retired IDF Brigadier General Amir Aviv, a week after the start of the Israeli military operation in Gaza, called on Egypt to “open the border and allow all Palestinian citizens to move south to the Sinai Peninsula.” Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi warned that what is happening in the Gaza Strip is “an attempt to force civilians to seek refuge and flee to Egypt, which cannot be tolerated.” On October 17, an Israeli think tank close to Netanyahu published a report, which later became public, where a “unique and rare opportunity” was discussed for the “resettlement of the entire population of Gaza” and the “final solution” of the issue. And more recently, another “preliminary plan” was leaked, this time by the Israeli Intelligence Ministry, where it is recommended that the entire population of the Gaza Strip be permanently relocated to Egypt.
The Israeli Government has since stressed that this document is of a tentative nature and is not being considered as an option. Perhaps this is good news, because such a policy will not only be a disaster for the residents of Gaza, but will inevitably cause retaliation in one form or another from the so-called “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran, which also includes the Syrian government, Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. In this case, the situation can escalate rapidly. Not only will Israel respond with powerful bombardments of pro—Iranian forces in Lebanon and other countries, the United States will almost certainly intervene.
In recent weeks, the United States and NATO have assembled the largest fleet in recent decades in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. It has at least 73 ships from a dozen countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the USA. The United States alone has deployed two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, as well as aircraft, cruisers, destroyers and submarines with missiles.“Tomahawk.”
Unsurprisingly, in response, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had deployed MiG-31 interceptors with hypersonic Dagger anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km over the waters of the Black Sea. “I warned that this is not a threat, but we will carry out visual control, control with weapons over what is happening in the Mediterranean Sea,” Putin told reporters. China is also following events in the region very closely: at least six Chinese warships have visited the Middle East in recent weeks.
It is not difficult to imagine how all this can end. Since all the major world powers are present in the Middle East, in the event of an escalation, the United States and NATO will almost certainly get involved in a conflict against Russia and China. The consequences of this will be catastrophic, and its economic, military and humanitarian echoes will be reflected in the West. Given these risks, calling for a ceasefire is in the interests not only of the people of Gaza, but also of the whole world.
Author: Thomas Fazi — columnist and translator. Co-author of the book “Covid Consensus”
