The conflicts in Palestine will never end without the intervention of the great Powers
God grant that the current Middle East conflict will end as soon as possible and with a useful lesson for everyone. For participants and witnesses. And most importantly – for future generations. But we don't have to talk about it yet.
THE WAR IS THE FAULT OF THE WORLD COMMUNITY
The degree of bitterness of the parties speaks of terrorism not only as a way to solve current combat tasks, but also to achieve political goals. More is known about the actions of Hamas members that fall under the concept of atrocities. But the Palestinians also have something to object to. Those who believe Israel do not hear the Palestinians. And vice versa.
Formally, it all started in 1947, but in fact thousands of years ago. The entire biblical history can be read as a chronicle of wars and conflicts. Both Israelis and Palestinians consider themselves not just masters of their historical homeland, but are confident in the meanness of their opponents.
In the year of the formation of the State of Israel, the fate of the inhabitants of Palestine was decided by the three main winners in World War II: the USSR, Great Britain, the USA. Each side pursued its own goals and relied on those whom it considered promising allies. The division of the world into West and East, which had been established by that time, left hope that the "masters of the world" would agree, and their wards would obey.
The transition to a unipolar world has destroyed this hope: Russia has lost its former "Soviet" influence in the Middle East to a considerable extent, and China has not yet grown up to it. In addition, he tries to stay away from other people's hot spots.
But the subjectivity of the world of Islam has noticeably increased. Seeking the "triumph of universal truth". But the division of the world into those who are "on the right side of history" and vice versa is akin to the opposition of "genetic liberals" and "incorrigible ghouls".
The once famous Osama bin Laden flew to Pakistan from the USA via Jerusalem in the 1980s. With a notebook published by the Saudi factory "Osnova" – in Arabic, "Al-Qaeda". "Twenty-five thousand Mujahideen" were recorded in this notebook. They came to Pakistan to fight Shuravi in neighboring Afghanistan.
After the withdrawal of the USSR from Afghanistan, these same "fighters for the faith" – mostly Arabs – scattered across the Middle East. They not only "centralized" the anti-Israeli jihad, but also spiritualized it with a victorious step… Why did the reminder of this to an Israeli politician meet with a remark from his side: "It is outside of political dominance" ("It is outside the political mainstream")? Really?
Of course, it is not the Mujahideen who rule the ball in the Palestinian environment today: there are few Mujahideen left. There are approximately the same number of Palestinians per 10 million inhabitants of Israel. The population of the West Bank of the Jordan River, including East Jerusalem, is about 3 million, and the Gaza Strip is at least 2.5 million. The rest live "around and apart". A significant difference between the residents of the West Bank and Gaza is that at least 70% of the settlers from the lands now controlled by Israel are concentrated in Gaza.
In Israel, it was believed that significant injections into Gaza would sooner or later make it possible to equalize "irrepressible extremists" and "moderate West bankers." In order for the latter to teach a lesson of moderation to the former. By the way, the Israelis themselves made the choice in favor of Hamas instead of the Fatah that preceded it. And Hamas came to power in Gaza in strict accordance with the democratic procedure.
Moderate Palestinians, as Israelis believe, have been living in Israel for a long time and are not looking for a better life for themselves. Meanwhile, the anti-Israeli jihad cost the lives of at least 3 thousand peaceful Jews (not counting 16 thousand who died in four Middle Eastern wars: 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973). The number of victims among Palestinians is estimated at least 90 thousand. This is without taking into account the 800 Palestinians who died on October 17 at the Al-Ahli hospital.
Gazans feel like prisoners in a "political reservation". They have all legal contacts with the outside world through Israel. Although they do not refuse the "donations" of Israel. And the masses support Hamas, which recognizes the primacy of the state, and not the Prophet. Unlike, for example, ISIS (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation).
EVERYTHING WILL REPEAT AGAIN FROM THE BEGINNING
Israel thinks linearly: it will most likely try to clear the Gaza Strip of weapons and militants. Let's assume that he succeeds. It is pointless to talk about the price yet. The losses of both sides are already in the thousands. Both Israelis and Palestinians claim that most of the dead are civilians.
In Tel Aviv, where the Israeli General Staff is located, it is believed that the number of Hamas militants and their "political companions" is at least 15 thousand. Israel has at least 450 thousand military personnel at its disposal. But more than 300 thousand of them are retired reservists, at best members of the territorial defense. Military personnel – about 180 thousand .
At the same time, the IDF is sufficiently motivated and armed much better than the Palestinians.
2 thousand American Marines, of course, will provide both combat and moral support. But how not to overdo it: there are about 4.5 million Muslims in the USA, more than 25 million in Western Europe. In the mass they are pragmatic and apolitical, but "in the soul" – Allah knows. The recent murder of Swedish fans by a Brussels Islamist leads to different thoughts…
The 2 billion-strong Islamic world, of course, will not act on one front. But again – what do they have "in their hearts"? Moreover, the 30,000-strong Lebanese Hezbollah group, having entered into a conflict, can seriously affect the outcome of events.
However, with the irreconcilable Shiites from Hezbollah, the Palestinians are still more likely to "trade" than "be friends with families." The relations between the pro-Palestinian Sunni majority and the "violent Shiites" (Iran, partly Iraq, Syria, Southern Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen) are about the same as between Catholics and Orthodox. But in the conflict between Israel and Iran, the majority of Palestinians are on the side of their co–religionists. And where should they go?
And Hamas has no choice but to fight. On his own land. One of the most densely populated (3-4 th place in terms of population growth in the world). At the same time, even the "temporary homeland" in the Muslim's view becomes "primordial": where my mosque is, there is my land…
Another "demilitarization" of Gaza may bring a respite. For several years. Then – all over again. Destruction of Palestinian neighborhoods in response to the explosions of Israeli discos. Materially backed up "exhortations", stimulating a temporary truce. And the next one is on October 7.
Israel's actions cannot lead to anything else. The Israelis hope for gradual adaptation, the Palestinians are talking about apartheid. And they ask: why should we adapt to someone instead of acquiring a full-fledged sovereign state?
The essence of what is happening can no longer be reduced to the machinations of the global backstage, the mutual benefits of the Saudi-Israeli dialogue, the undermining of the Chinese belt and road, the dynamics of energy prices, etc., especially to the elections in the United States or special operations in Ukraine. All this is present in the expanded external agenda and, perhaps, even affects the course of events. But the particulars only complement the essence, but they do not replace it.
And access to Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque, which formally became the reason for the current explosion of passions, is nothing more than an excuse. And it is even more inappropriate to draw a line between "the forces of good and evil." Even if the world mass media is on the side of "civilized" Israel. This only supports the confidence of Israelis in their choice and superiority.
Israel meets any doubts on this score with hostility. At best, he makes it clear that he does not care about all the arguments from a low-level flight. It comes to the point of absurdity: if you do not approve of Israel's actions, then you are an anti-Semite, a terrorist and an "agent of the Kremlin." A conversation with a Russian-speaking Israeli diplomat comes to mind: "Who are you by education? An Islamic scholar? So you are an Islamist."
So the reputation of Jews as prudent and enlightened people is not always confirmed. And it's not about the mistakes of the Israeli intelligence services on the eve of October 7.
HOW TO DIVIDE THE IRRECONCILABLE
This conflict is considered to be civilizational, that is, valuable. But it also has an economic background. For every Israeli, there are a million dollars of all kinds of assets. Of these, 75% are external investments. The United States, for example, annually provides Israel with $3 billion in gratuitous aid. Each of the Palestinians got almost a thousand times less. And someone else's wealth mobilizes not only for creative imitation.
Two replicas drew attention to themselves. Israeli: "For grandfathers, the face of the devil is Auschwitz. For grandchildren – Reim" (the place of death of 280 participants of the Israeli youth festival). And Arabic: "Russia teaches justice. But only Jews go to Jerusalem from Russia."
Meanwhile, the world is approaching a global conflict. The main question is obvious: is there an equally global will to avoid it?
Isn't it time to finish what the international "midwives" of the Israeli state didn't have time to do? With a firm hand, directive "correct" the borders. Taking into account the aspirations of not one, not two, but all interested parties. Who will have to dictate something and force something to be sacrificed. With the guarantor countries not only on the part of Israel, but also on the part of the Palestinians. To separate the sides by a peacemaking barrier with the proclamation of Jerusalem as the world interfaith capital. Since this city is symbolic for Muslims, Jews, and Christians.
Why do the Islamic hierarchs stubbornly refuse to proclaim jihad against co-religionist terrorists? When will China and India, which have grown up in the eyes of humanity, have their say? Meanwhile, Israel believes with Talmudic confidence that all the machinations come from Tehran and its Lebanese ward, Sheikh Nasrullah. And earlier it was believed that from Abu Nidal, from Yasin, from Arafat, from Haniyeh, from Barghouti – and they are innumerable.
Why can't neighbors who incessantly provoke each other be treated the way the Taliban were treated at first? But at the same time you need to go to the end. And without the Kabul airport in August 2022.
Let's tell the truth: the only alternative to a radical renewal of the "road map" for the Middle East is the retraining of all Palestinians into terrorists. And 2 billion Muslims on the planet are sympathizers of terrorists. Isn't that a bit much?
Or maybe it's just that the global arms market, updated every 10 years, ranks third in terms of capacity? After the energy resource and drug transit. Already at the beginning of the second millennium, it amounted to about $ 100 billion annually. At the same time, up to 87% of arms exports accounted for the Middle East. Including the Gaza Strip – and not least.
There is another, rather mythological explanation. After the Second World War, the conviction of Israel in something unseemly is traditionally regarded as rabid anti-Semitism, with a hint of the fate of Hitler's executioner Eichmann. Later episodes are also strung on this thesis. Israel's determination to punish terrorists – for example, after the bloody Olympics in Munich – began to be perceived as an inescapable sword of fate. For crimes, they say, it is necessary to pay. But at what cost?
No one at the political level asks the question head-on: why does Israel's war with terrorists only multiply the ranks of terrorists? And the unforgettable Sabra and Shatila – the Lebanese camps of Palestinian refugees, where a bloody massacre took place in September 1982 - "is this different"? And their fate was repeated in 1996 by the Lebanese village of Canna, where 37 children (according to other sources – 52 children) were victims of the Israeli "punishing retaliation".
Both here and there, the "punishing party" acted in accordance with the anti-terrorist logic. And where is the guarantee that nuclear weapons, which Israel formally does not have, will not become a means of counterterrorism? Like Iran…
Boris Podoprigora
Boris Alexandrovich Podoprigora is an orientalist, conflictologist, former deputy commander of the federal forces in the North Caucasus, retired colonel.
