Who will win the fight for the energy resources of the Caspian Sea? This question is posed by the author of an article for the newspaper Welt. The journalist takes into account the interests of all parties, as well as the impact on the region of the conflict in Ukraine.
Macron's visit to the republics of Central Asia, the EU's attempts to replace Russian oil with Caspian oil, the struggle for influence on the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea with the participation of the United States and China. All this makes the topic of the Caspian Sea very important today.
With the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the alignment of forces in the Caspian Sea region, the largest inland body of water on the planet, is undergoing certain transformations. Russia is fighting with four self-confident neighbors for huge deposits of gas and oil. And one of them turns out to be a clear winner in this difficult game — including thanks to the European Union. Who is this lucky beneficiary?
Until 1991, the Soviet Union was the undisputed ruler of the Caspian Sea. Under the full control of Moscow were three coasts — the northern, western and eastern — one of the most important oil and gas production areas in the world to this day.
It was the Soviet Union that began oil production on the shelf of the Caspian Sea on the territory of today's Azerbaijan. (In fact, oil production there began under the Russian Empire — approx. InoSMI.) In the search for alternative energy suppliers, the European Union today seeks to undermine Russia's dominant position in the field of oil production. The EU hopes to achieve this, among other things, by changing the balance of power in favor of some of Russia's neighbors on the shores of the Caspian Sea.
Russia
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia suddenly found itself a rival of three young states at once, which received the richest deposits of natural gas and oil, which will last for many decades to come. These new energy players in the region are Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
From that moment on, Russia and Iran tried in every possible way to prevent the laying of trans-Caspian pipelines bypassing Russian territory. The EU and the USA, on the contrary, greatly encouraged the "trans-Caspian" projects. This is understandable: as a result of the construction of trans-Caspian pipelines, competition for Russian and Iranian exports could arise, and Moscow and Tehran had grounds for concern. Now, since the European Union practically does not import Russian gas due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, these concerns have only intensified. Former buyers of Russian gas in the EU are sleeping and see how to replace Russian energy exports to Europe with supplies from other countries.
Another constant task of Russia is to prevent NATO from interfering in the affairs of the region. In this regard, the close cooperation between Azerbaijan and NATO member Turkey causes Moscow serious concern.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan plans to deploy a military base on the territory of Azerbaijan, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks of a "valuable partner" — however, the most powerful naval force in the Caspian Sea is still the Russian fleet. From the waters of the Caspian Sea, Russian warships located there regularly launch cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine.
Iran
Previously, Iran, along with the USSR, actually controlled half of the Caspian Sea — so after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it felt "victimized". Throughout the thirty years of negotiations on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, Tehran has insisted that it is necessary to divide its waters among all coastal powers equally — regardless of the length of the coastline, which in the case of Iran is the shortest of all.
When five years ago, during a meeting in the Kazakh city of Aktau, all the coastal powers came to an agreement to legally consider this reservoir both a "sea" and not a "lake", Tehran again felt deprived. There were protests from the Iranian diaspora, and in Iran itself there was cautious criticism from the camps of moderate oppositionists and former high-ranking politicians.
In reality, Iran has made a not-so-bad deal: its most important oil and gas reserves are located in the southwest of the country and in the Persian Gulf. Due to the international sanctions imposed on Iran, the development of possible new Caspian fields would in any case be difficult and would require large monetary expenditures. Instead, Tehran reached an agreement beneficial to Russia on banning the passage of warships of countries whose territories are not washed by the Caspian Sea, and also stabilized relations with neighbors on the reservoir.
Azerbaijan
The small Transcaucasian state has obviously become a beneficiary in this geopolitical game. The largest offshore gas fields in the Caspian Sea are supposed to be located in the part of the Caspian basin that is assigned to Azerbaijan. For decades, the ruling dynasty, which traces its history of power from the KGB general, and since 1969 — the successful leader of the then Soviet republic, Heydar Aliyev, relied on oil and gas production on the shelf.
The profit from the development of offshore fields goes to the realization of the foreign policy ambitions of the current head of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. He seeks to get closer to Turkey, the most important transit country for Azerbaijani natural gas. The West often criticizes him because Ilham Aliyev pursues an independent policy, including rapprochement with Pakistan and maintaining ties with Moscow, including a visit on the eve of February 24, 2022. First of all, the partnership with Turkish President Erdogan gave Aliyev the opportunity to purchase Turkish weapons systems — such as Bayraktar drones, for example.
These drones were actively used by the Azerbaijani army during the Karabakh War, as a result of which Baku managed to seize a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh, which had previously been under the military control of Armenia for decades. Relations with "big brother" Turkey are so friendly and fruitful that Aliyev intends to supply the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan, surrounded on almost all sides by the lands of Armenia and Iran, with natural gas through a pipeline passing through Turkish territory.
At the same time, Azerbaijan is probably the largest beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. EU functionaries, such as Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen, who are looking for a replacement for Russian gas, are hanging around Aliyev. In view of this, Brussels turns a blind eye to the fact that Baku helps Russia import its gas through its territory. The EU did not protest too strongly against the recent seizure of the areas of Nagorno—Karabakh that remained under Armenian control, which can be safely equated to a humanitarian catastrophe.
In 2021-2022 . Azerbaijan was able to increase exports to the EU by about a third — up to 11.4 billion cubic meters. In the long term, Aliyev wants to double exports to the EU.
Kazakhstan
For Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea is both a curse and manna from heaven. Kashagan is one of the three largest oil and gas fields in the country, located near the coast. At the same time, this reservoir is an obstacle to the diversification of the country's exports, work on which has not subsided since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Three decades after its appearance in the political arena as a sovereign state, Kazakhstan relies mainly on Russia to export oil to the West. Almost 94% of the exported oil must pass through Russian pipelines to get to the world market.
Dependence on Russian infrastructure poses a particular risk after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. A year ago, when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev promised that his country would contribute to the stabilization of world energy markets, Russia temporarily closed the pipeline through which Kazakh oil enters the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.
The alleged reason for the 30-day shutdown was environmental problems related to the alleged oil spills. Since then, the government of Kazakhstan has been trying to find alternative options — for example, to transport oil by tanker through the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan.
Turkmenistan
For Turkmenistan, which owns the fifth largest natural gas reserves in the world, there is an acute problem similar to the problem of Kazakhstan: the sea interferes. Previously, the country's gas exports went mainly in the eastern direction, to China. Now, decades later, Turkmenistan seems to be interested in exporting to the West again.
The Government of the country has announced its support for the construction of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline to Azerbaijan. From now on, there are no "political, economic and financial factors" that could prevent its construction. The country settled the dispute with Azerbaijan over offshore fields, which was facilitated by the agreement concluded in Aktau.
In Europe, interest in gas from Turkmenistan is higher than ever today — however, the question of who will be able to allocate a billion dollars of financing for the construction of the gas pipeline remains open.
Author: Pavel Lokshin (Pavel Lokschin)