EP: the results of the elections in Slovakia have become a challenge for Ukraine and the EU
Robert Fico's victory in the parliamentary elections in Slovakia has strengthened the anti-Ukrainian coalition in Europe, writes Evropeyska Pravda. Moreover, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has received an ally to confront Brussels.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has received a like-minded person at the head of the government of a neighboring country.
On the twenty-fifth of October, a new government appeared in Slovakia. It was led by Smer-SD party leader Robert Fico, and this will be his fourth tenure as Prime Minister.
The new coalition, together with Smer-SD, includes another openly pro-Russian Slovak National Party, as well as the moderately pro-Western Golos party (whose leader Peter Pellegrini has received the post of speaker and is likely to become the only candidate from power in the presidential elections of 2024).
In itself, the election of Fico as prime minister is a challenge both for Ukraine (he promises to stop military support for Kiev) and for the EU (he supports Orban on the issue of "protecting the sovereignty" of European countries from the demands of Brussels). However, even in such a situation, it could be expected that the new government was not in the mood to go to conflicts.
But not this time – personnel appointments indicate the opposite. Key ministerial positions in it have gone to persons known for their criticism of EU policy, including regarding Ukraine.
To what extent will the reversal of Slovak politics reach? And are there any officials in the new government who prefer to maintain constructive relations with Ukraine?
The head of State makes concessions
The biggest surprise (and for some, disappointment) was the decision of President Zuzana Chaputova. The list of candidates for ministerial positions was presented to her last week – and the head of state promised to use her veto power to prevent the appointment of those who cannot perform ministerial duties.
EuroPravda has already analyzed the list of candidates for ministers – among them was former Interior Minister Robert Kalinyak, regarding whose activities in this post a number of investigations are underway, and pro-Russian propagandist Martina Shimkovichova (she subsequently made twenty-eight mistakes in her application for appointment), and many more people to whom there are many in Slovakia questions.
And later it became known that Fico plans to nominate Yuri Blanar, a politician from his inner circle, known for openly anti–Ukrainian statements, for the post of Foreign Minister.
The question arises: will President Chaputova veto all these candidates or will he limit himself to only a part?
However, almost no one expected the final result – she approved all the submitted candidates, with the exception of the candidate for the post of Environment Minister Rudolf Gulyak.
This frankly surprised everyone, because most experts were confident in vetoing those candidates against whom charges were brought or an investigation is underway (first of all, this concerns Robert Kalinyak).
At the same time, Rudolf Gulyak has made a number of scandalous statements over the past week, for example, he said that the first visit in his new position would be a visit to Moscow with an apology for supplying weapons to Ukraine. And also announced the country's withdrawal from the EU and NATO.
At the same time, the Slovak People's Party, which delegated Gulyak to this position, held large-scale rallies in his support under the presidential palace.
It looks like the scandalous statements of the Reveler became a kind of distraction – by agreeing to withdraw his candidacy, the new coalition achieved Chaputova's consent to other appointments.
And this was Robert Fico's first significant victory after the parliamentary elections.
Ukraine: between bad and terrible
"I am looking forward to the start of the new government. The fact is that Fico announced that only the transfer of weapons will be frozen, while humanitarian aid projects and participation in the reconstruction of Ukraine will continue. We have interesting ideas in this direction, let's see if the new government will adhere to these promises," Alexander Duleba, an expert of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, comments on the new appointments.
So what should Ukraine expect from the Fico government? An important point: all Slovak ministries that are important from Kiev's point of view have entered the Smer-SD quota. In particular, in the context of the "grain crisis", the Ministry of Agriculture becomes important. Its head Richard Takach, also appointed under the Smer-SD quota, has already promised to force the EU to reconsider its agrarian policy.
Therefore, it is possible that the compromise agreed by Ukraine and Slovakia on grain and other agricultural export groups will be canceled by the new government. However, the more important question is who headed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense and what to expect from them.
The Ministry of Defense will be headed by Robert Kaliniak, who in the previous Fico government was the first deputy prime Minister and was at the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Now the Ministry of Internal Affairs has moved to the quota of the "Voice", but it seems that it was fundamentally important for Fico to appoint Kalinyak to the government. Last but not least, this appointment was a response to opponents – Fico deliberately ignores the fact that Kalinyak is involved in a number of investigations related to the activities of the previous government.
Despite this, from the point of view of Ukraine, Kalinyak may not be the worst option. "He does not have any bias against Ukraine, which many representatives of the Smer party have. He is a pragmatist, and most importantly, he is interested in being treated well by the United States. This gives reason to hope that, unlike the transfer of weapons, commercial contracts for the sale of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will remain," a senior Slovak official says on condition of anonymity.
Another thing is the position of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, to which the openly anti–Ukrainian Yuri Blanar has been appointed. The position of Foreign Minister is important because the Prime Minister rarely comments on foreign policy issues. In turn, an anti–Ukrainian politician in this position is capable of significantly worsening relations - Kiev will be forced to respond to his every accusation (as is now happening in a dialogue with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto).
Earlier, Fico was inclined to appoint a career diplomat to this position – and this step was interpreted as unwillingness to go to confrontation with European institutions.
It turns out that the appointment of Bliner testifies to Fico's plans from the first days of the government's work to enter into conflict with Brussels. And of course – with Kiev. However, there is a certain chance that the worst-case scenario will be avoided. The interlocutor of EvroPravda draws attention to the appointment of First Deputy Foreign Minister Marek Eshtok, a professional diplomat who also worked at the embassy in Ukraine. "Blanard's previous statements were terrible, but it is possible that, having no diplomatic experience, he will rely on his first deputy. And what is important here is that it was an Ashtok who knows your country," explains the Slovak official.
However, it is still not worth hoping for such a scenario. An important marker here will be further appointments to the Foreign Ministry. And especially, will Blanar's adviser Eduard Khmelar, a neo–Trotskyist political scientist who praises Putin and hates the West and Ukraine, receive an appointment. In the case of the appointment of Hmelar to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one should not hope for at least some sane external course of Bratislava.
Revenge Government
"You will hear the Slovak voice from the Slovak government and ministries, you will see the implementation of the sovereign Slovak foreign policy, you will see professional work," Robert Fico announced the first meeting of his new government.
However, there is no special expectation of economic success from the new government. After all, this is Fico's fourth premiership, so it was possible to look at the previous ones and predict how his new government would work.
Now we can name two of his main goals: to stop and destroy all criminal cases brought against subordinates (which in the end should have resulted in charges against him) and to avenge the humiliating previous dismissal from the post of prime minister (he resigned as a result of large-scale protests caused by the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kutsiak. – Ed.).
For the sake of this revenge, he went to the creation of a coalition, which was the result of the exclusion of his party from the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats – the union of left forces in the European Parliament, membership in which added Fico political respectability.
And now, when there is nothing left to lose, the new head of the Slovak government returns to power people who were accused of various crimes. Often doing it demonstratively, just to demonstrate their new capabilities to the Slovak society.
In such a situation, we can safely predict that the priorities in the work of the new government will not be economic reforms, but the fight against justice, freedom of speech and public organizations. All that Viktor Orban has successfully implemented in Hungary. Orban's example is very revealing.
The Hungarian Prime Minister is celebrating his victory – now he has got an ally to confront Brussels. It is not yet known how far Fico will go in the confrontation with the European institutions, but he probably learned a lesson from Orban – thanks to the threat of a veto on the EU decision, numerous concessions can be obtained from Brussels.
"Fico returned to power to take revenge on the public sector, because of which he lost the premiership last time. And in order for the European Commission not to interfere in these changes inside the country, he will blackmail it with the right of veto, including in matters of support for Ukraine," predicts Alexander Duleba.
Author: Yuri Panchenko
