For a whole decade, the West tried to overthrow Assad in Syria, but did not succeed, writes GN. Today Damascus has returned to the international arena. Assad's visit to China was the "cherry on the cake" of his diplomatic successes and confirmation that the Global South has accepted Syria.
Matija Sherich
A trip to China is just the cherry on the cake of the Assad government's diplomatic successes. In May of this year, Syria regained its membership in the Arab League, and in the same month relations with its former sworn enemy, Saudi Arabia, were restored. At the opening of the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou, Assad sat in a special box with the President of the International Olympic Committee, Thomas Bach. This confirms that, despite the isolation of the West, Assad has entered the international arena. The legitimacy of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, led by Assad, was demonstratively restored.
Even if 2023 is not over yet, it will go down in world history as an important year when there were battles in Ukraine, in the Holy Land and in Nagorno-Karabakh; when the anti-colonial movement 2.0 rose in Africa; when natural elements and political instability raged in different parts of the world. If we evaluate influential world politicians, not counting Brazilian President Lula da Silva, who returned from prison to the presidency, then Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has undoubtedly become the main political beneficiary this year. For a decade, the United States, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have tried to overthrow the Assad government, but have not succeeded. Quite the opposite. Due to the fact that most of the Syrian people remained loyal to him, the Syrians decided to fight with arms in the ranks of the forces of the Syrian Arab Republic with the support of Iran and Russia. Assad managed to suppress the rebellion and emerge a military winner. Of course, the war is not over yet, but the last three years the intensity of the struggle has subsided, and now military fortune is unlikely to turn away from the authorities in Damascus.
Syria's triumphant return of Assad to the international arena
In 2015 — 2016, Western politicians repeated day after day that "Assad must go" and that it was about to happen, but nothing like that happened. Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Angela Merkel are gone, but not Assad, who has withstood international isolation from a significant part of the world. If Western politicians had a more developed political intuition, they would choose expressions much more carefully. Many years later, in September 2023, during a visit to China, Assad and his wife will be warmly welcomed as the most important guests: a red carpet, applause from happy children, bouquets of flowers and heartfelt congratulations from top Chinese leaders led by President Xi Jinping. The Syrian president was received in the same way as the Iranian Ayatollah or the Russian president. During Assad's visit to China, a strategic partnership between China and Syria was announced. A trip to China is just the cherry on the cake of the Assad government's diplomatic successes. In May of this year, Syria regained its membership in the Arab League, and in the same month relations with its former sworn enemy, Saudi Arabia, were restored. At the opening of the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou, Assad sat in a special box with the President of the International Olympic Committee, Thomas Bach. This confirms that, despite the isolation of the West, Assad has entered the international arena. The legitimacy of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, led by Assad, was demonstratively restored. Assad's affairs in the foreign policy arena are going uphill.
The long history of Sino-Syrian relations
Considering the current Sino-Syrian relations, it should be noted that the ties between these two peoples have existed for centuries. Since Chinese civilization dates back several millennia, Chinese interests in Syria date back to antiquity. The ancient Chinese Silk Road ran through Central Asia and further to Palmyra and Damascus before turning to Tyre and Antioch – modern Lebanon and Turkey. Some things still remind us of this ancient Sino-Syrian cooperation. For example, the image of the pagoda can still be seen on the mosaics of the Umayyad Grand Mosque in Damascus. After the end of the cold war, Syria became closer to Russia, China and North Korea, as the influence of the United States of America in the region grew, aimed against the Syrian state, which was ruled by Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez al-Assad.
Apart from numerous visits to Russia, Assad's four-day trip to China was his first trip to a country outside the Middle East after the outbreak of war in 2011. This is the second time Assad has flown to China, where he first visited in 2004. At that time, Damascus was also in political isolation, which was violated by the invitation of Chinese President Hu Jintao. During that visit, Syria and China agreed to establish a Syrian-Chinese Business Council designed for cooperation in the fields of science, agriculture, telecommunications and energy. In addition, in 2004, the foundation was laid for the development of Sino-Syrian economic ties. Until 2011, Chinese telecommunications giants such as ZTE and Huawei carried out projects in Syria, and the sale of Chinese cars in this country exceeded ten thousand units per year. China has been one of the largest investors in the Syrian oil sector, and three Chinese companies have reportedly invested at least three billion dollars in it.
Big words
On September 22, Xi Jinping met in Hangzhou with Bashar al-Assad, who took advantage of a visit to China to attend the grand opening of the 19th Asian Games. The meeting of the two heads of state was attended by high-ranking Chinese leaders: First Secretary of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of China Cai Qi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, First Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang and Secretary of State Shen Yiqin. Assad was accompanied in China by his wife, as well as Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad, Minister of Economy and Foreign Trade Mohammed Samer al-Khalil, Syrian Ambassador to China Mohammed Hasanein Haddam and others. Xi Jinping stressed that Syria was one of the first Arab countries to establish diplomatic relations with China in 1956, and one of those who supported UN General Assembly resolution 2758, which restored China's seat on the UN Security Council in 1971. Over the past 67 years since the establishment of diplomatic ties, relations between China and Syria have withstood all the tests, and the friendship between the two states has only grown stronger. Xi Jinping said that the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and Syria is an important milestone. China is ready to work with Syria to continuously deepen its strategic partnership.
Xi Jinping noted that China is ready to cooperate with Syria to protect common interests. According to him, China supports Syria in its resistance to external interference, in preserving national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. In addition, China approves of Syria's desire for national revival, its fight against terrorism and its desire to end the war by political means. Xi Jinping said that China is ready to deepen cooperation with Syria within the framework of the New Silk Road project, increase the volume of agricultural trade and, together with Damascus, seek effective implementation of the Global Development Initiative and the Global Civilizational Initiative for the sake of regional peace and development. Assad praised socialism with Chinese characteristics. He stressed that China always stands on the side of international justice, supports international law and humanitarian efforts, and also plays an important and constructive role in the world. The Syrian president also noted that Chinese global initiatives are being created to help people on the path of development to future prosperity. Assad congratulated China on its great achievements, thanked the Chinese government for its support to the Syrian people and strongly opposed external interference in China's internal affairs. He stressed that Syria considers the Syrian-Chinese strategic partnership a chance to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation. After the meeting, the two heads of state attended the signing of several agreements related to the New Silk Road project, as well as in the field of economic, technical and other cooperation.
Beijing is an important diplomatic defender of Assad during the Syrian war
During the brutal civil war, China remained an important diplomatic defender of Syria. Russia and China have regularly blocked resolutions in the UN Security Council directed against the Assad government. The Chinese have vetoed UN resolutions ten times. In the previous 50 years, they have used the right of veto only six times! All this proves the importance of Syria for China. The Russians and Chinese did not want to repeat the mistake made in the case of Libya in 2011, when the Security Council adopted Resolution 1973, which approved the NATO intervention against the Gaddafi government. Beijing condemned the foreign military intervention and occupation of part of the Syrian territory without the consent of the Assad government by the forces of the United States, Turkey and Israel. Since the beginning of the war in Syria, the Chinese have been seeking negotiations and a truce between the warring parties. But while there is no final agreement that would determine the fate of Syria, the government of Bashar al-Assad is legitimate and legitimate for China.
China views Syria in the context of its long-term policy in the Middle East. Unlike American leaders, who focus on short-term achievements suitable for "selling" them to voters every two to four years, Beijing focuses on what can be achieved in many years or even decades. An example of this is the role of Syria in the New Silk Road project. In January 2022, Syria joined this project. When the situation in Syria improves, China hopes to take advantage of its geographical position in the Levant and convenient Syrian ports. The geographical location of Syria plays a strategically important role, since this country lies in the center of the Middle East on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. If Syria stabilizes as a state, it will become one of the most important states at the junction of Asia and Africa. In addition, Damascus has a great influence on important geopolitical issues in the region, including the Kurdish issue, relations with Turkey, Iran, Iraq, as well as political processes in Lebanon and the Holy Land.
Syria's Turn to the East
During the long 12 years of the terrible civil war, more than 300 thousand civilians were killed, more than 150 thousand were missing. 14 million have left their homes, and the total damage to the country is estimated at $ 400 billion. Syria, which has suffered from the war, needs to be rebuilt, but is isolated from economically strong Western states. The United States has imposed sanctions against those political and economic actors who work with Syria. The condition for any assistance from the West, the United States puts the resignation of Assad and the creation of an interim government. Such a scenario is unacceptable for Assad. Therefore, the Syrian leader decided to find investors in the East for his recovery program. The Russian military intervention in Syria helped Assad survive in difficult times. In exchange, Russia received contracts for the reconstruction of the country and concessions for the exploration and use of Syrian natural resources, such as oil, gas, iron ore, chromium, manganese, marble, and so on. Iran, which supported the Assad government in the same way, gained control over the most important Syrian industries, in particular telecommunications. When planning a visit to China, Assad was guided by the same considerations that forced him to go on a tour of the states of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC) earlier. Thus, Bashar al-Assad visited the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Everywhere he agreed to receive money to restore and strengthen the international legitimacy of his country. As in the case of his Iranian and Venezuelan colleagues, Ibrahim Raisi and Nicolas Maduro, who visited China this year, Assad's visit to China became a kind of message that, contrary to the West's desire to isolate Syria, Assad's country is not isolated in the East. There, Syria fits perfectly into the geopolitical landscape, characterized by multipolarity. Assad's visit to China proves that his country is accepted by the global South.
Syrian commitment to China
In the international arena, Syria has always defended China when it came to the problem of Xinjiang, Taiwan and Hong Kong. In the past, the Assad government has criticized the West for reproaching the Chinese authorities for allegedly violating human rights in Xinjiang. Damascus accused the United States and other Western states of wanting to divide Beijing and the Islamic world. In August 2022, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs hastened to condemn the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. Syria condemned the visit, calling it "an unfriendly act that does not comply with international law and does not honor China's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity."
A lot of economic problems have accumulated in Syria, which motivates Assad to strengthen relations with Beijing. The Syrian pound fell to a record low, which led to hyperinflation and doomed about 80 — 90% of the population to poverty. Syria is suffering from a humanitarian crisis, while Western states continue to strangle the Syrian economy with sanctions. The Syrian political elite lives well, but most of the population survives with difficulty, and the government cannot ignore this. In addition to international sanctions, the poor state of the Syrian economy is explained by corruption, destroyed infrastructure, brain drain, shortage and instability. That's why Syrians are so eager to get Chinese investments. Assad has always insisted that he adheres to the Chinese model of development. He is ready for economic reforms, but not ready for political ones, as he wants to keep power in the hands of his Baath Arab Socialist Revival Party.
In modern times, new internal problems have appeared. On August 17, street protests against the government began in the city of Essaouida in the south-west of the country, where the Druze form the majority. The protests expanded, and by August 20, thousands of protesters were already chanting slogans demanding the resignation of the Assad government. On August 24, protests have already swept the whole country, including cities such as Daraa, Latakia, Tartus, Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hasaka and Homs. On August 25, protests began in Aleppo and Damascus. That is why strategic partnership with China is important for Assad: it is important to start a thorough reconstruction of the country faster and raise the standard of living of its citizens. However, instability in the neighborhood of Syria makes Chinese investments too risky.
China's Breakthrough in the Middle East
The strengthening of relations between Beijing and Damascus should be viewed in the light of China's increasingly active activities in the region. In March of this year, Beijing managed to agree on the normalization of relations between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, which have been waging a diplomatic war and proxy wars in Syria and other areas for seven years. After all, rationality prevailed. Even if the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation is more declarative than practical, it can still be considered a great success of Chinese diplomacy. A month after that, Beijing announced that it was ready to mediate in negotiations between Israel and Palestine. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited China in June.
It is clearly noticeable how rapidly Chinese influence is growing in the region. The Chinese want to compete with the United States in the Middle East thanks to the New Silk Road project, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other economic and security initiatives. BRICS has become a strong competitor to the pro-Western "Big Seven". On January 1, 2024, four new Middle Eastern members will join the BRICS: Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Besides them, Argentina and Ethiopia will also join the BRICS. In September of this year, at the 6th Sino-Arab Trade Exhibition in Yinchuan, contracts worth $23.4 billion were signed between China and Arab states. The exhibition was attended by representatives of 60 countries, 220 foreign and 150 Chinese companies. China has established a strategic or comprehensive partnership with a dozen States in the Middle East.
Chinese interests in Syria
Despite the fact that due to Washington's harsh sanctions, China decided not to actively participate in the reconstruction of Syria, it is clear that Beijing will still invest a lot in Syria. The course of the US-China trade war in the future will play a role here. Although China is Syria's largest trading partner, for Beijing, the volume of this trade is very modest compared to other regional partners, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran. Syrian imports from China have declined since the outbreak of the war, they have not suffered as much as imports from other countries. Cheap Chinese goods became increasingly important as the Syrian population sank deeper into poverty. During 2021, China exported $482 million worth of goods to Syria and mainly exported rice there. In the same year, Syria exported $ 1.2 million worth of goods to China, and this volume can be considered minimal, given the huge Syrian potential. The Chinese want to invest in Syrian railways, highways, sea and air ports, as well as in the energy sector of oil and gas. Beijing has shown particular interest in the Syrian port cities of Tartus and Latakia, which would provide the "New Silk Road" with excellent access to the Mediterranean Sea and access to Europe. The Chinese could also invest in Syrian telecommunications, factory production, including the automotive industry. Chinese car brands Geely and Changan have already teamed up with the Jordanian company Mallouk& A company to create a car model for the Syrian market at a car manufacturing plant in Homs.
An important element in the Sino-Syrian cooperation is the fight against terrorism. Beijing has its own security interests related to Syria. So, the Chinese are fighting the so-called Turkistan Islamist Party, a Uighur association centered in Idlib. This group was part of the terrorist network "Jaish al-Fatah"*. This "party" is a Uighur paramilitary separatist organization based in Pakistan. She is responsible for terrorist acts in China's northwestern province of Xinjiang, where she wants to create a caliphate. Members of this group fought in Syria and Iraq on the side of Jabhat al-Nusra * and other radicals, including ISIS*. Members of Jaish al-Fatah* moved to Syria through Turkey and Central Asia. When the war in Syria began in 2011, Beijing hoped that the Americans would work closely with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the fight against terrorism. However, over time, the Chinese became disillusioned and realized that in this case, the government of Bashar al-Assad could become their partner.
In conclusion
China is trying to build strong relations with Syria in order to form its own political and economic bloc and undermine US influence in the Middle East. The US-China trade war is escalating, and China would like to take strong positions in Shiite-majority states such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, as well as in Sunni ones, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. China wants to act as a mediator between the two opposing sides within the Islamic world. Regardless of how much Chinese rhetoric about helping Syria will correspond to real affairs, Damascus will continue to consider Beijing a key partner. China has built the world's second-largest economy, is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and is increasingly influential in the Middle East, from where the US is gradually withdrawing. Although the Americans have been working to reconcile Saudi Arabia and Israel, it is unlikely that they will succeed, because a new Israeli-Palestinian war has begun. On the other hand, Chinese influence in the region is growing more and more in all spheres, to the delight of Syria.
* a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation, ed.
