Delhi is trying to maintain the status quo on the world stage, writes Diamond. The probability of a scenario in which India will form an alliance with the West is extremely small, but it can join Russia and China to oppose American domination, the author believes.
Toru Ito
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe advocated a strategy of a free and open Indo-Pacific region aimed at cooperation between the democratic countries of Japan, the United States, Australia and India within the framework of the “quartet”. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida inherited this national policy as a deterrent to China's growing expansion, but India is not showing proper activity.
Having turned from a “yoga and curry country” into a “developing power that will lead the Global South,” India is a subject that both the democratic and despotic camps want to attract to their side at any cost, but many note that this country is too tough for anyone. What is the reality of a great state that goes its own way?
“Four” Japan, the USA, Australia and India — the Asian version of NATO?
What will the Indo-Pacific Order look like in the future? Of course, we, the representatives of the liberal democratic camp, would like to preserve the free and open Indo-Pacific region.
In this power structure, in 2030-2050, the difference in strength between the United States and China or between the liberal democratic camp of the USA-Japan-Australia and the authoritarian wing of China and Russia will be significantly reduced, and perhaps the situation will even turn 180 degrees. If this happens, then India, which is expected to be even more powerful than it is now, will want to win over both camps at all costs.
This is the idea of the “security diamond concept” presented by Shinzo Abe during the formation of the second government at the end of 2012. In an English-language article published by the international non-profit organization Project Syndicate, Abe stressed that Australia, India, Japan and the US state of Hawaii should form a quadrangle to protect the maritime spaces threatened by China's expansion.
But the question is, will India ever be able to get closer to the US, Japan or Australia than it is now? Is an alliance with liberal democracies possible, similar to the alliance between the USA and Japan or between the USA and Australia?
Currently, India does not have an alliance with any country, be it the United States, Japan, Australia or any other European power. All of them are strategic partners to a greater extent than allies. The essence of the “quartet" also lies in the fact that it is not an alliance.
Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar noted that the Quartet is just one of many groups and that India will avoid inflexible alliances. This position has not changed after the military conflict with China in 2020. In response to Washington's calls for the creation of an alliance of democracies, the Foreign Minister dismissed this idea, saying that the United States needs to survive the alliance thinking. Quite a firm position.
This means that at the moment India will not accept the Quartet alliance. At least, unless there are drastic changes in the Indian environment, a scenario in which India leans towards the West, including Japan, the USA and Australia, is unlikely.
So, what changes in the situation can change India's attitude? Most likely, when she decides that the status quo is no longer viable for her existence.
The most likely scenario is the intensification of China's military expansion and exceeding the level of clashes in 2020 (in the mountainous region of Ladakh, the Chinese side with stones and batons suddenly attacked Indian troops who were on patrol. Indian soldiers were pushed to the bottom of the valley, where 20 people died. — Approx. InoSMI), as a result of which India will not be able to resist this. That is, when the Indian side begins to seriously fear that China will invade its territory.
In turn, by 2050, India will probably begin to catch up with China in terms of overall national power. Therefore, China needs to deal with it now, before this happens. It will not be surprising if the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party tries to impose the Chinese order on India by using force to solve the unresolved border problem.
In the past, India tried to cope with the Chinese threat by building up its own armed forces and strengthening ties with the USSR. Can a similar approach be used in the future?
To begin with, let's consider how far the country can advance in building up its own military potential. According to the forecasts of CEBR (the British Center for Business and Economic Research), the gap in GDP between China and India is unlikely to shrink until at least the 2030s. This means that the gap in military spending will also not decrease much.
Moreover, even if military spending increases with subsequent GDP growth, it will take time for the results to affect military capabilities, including equipment. In other words, even if India alone tries to resist China's military potential, there is no guarantee that it will be ready for the moment of a real invasion. Of course, Beijing knows about this, so there is a high probability that it will act before the enemy is ready.
India cannot rely on Russia, and its relations with China are strained, but it still avoids the American camp
So should we not use relations with a traditional partner, Russia, the successor state of the USSR?
This option is even more unreliable. The power of Russia after the Cold War is far from the power of the Soviet Union, which once competed with the United States.
The importance of Russia for India gradually declined. And although New Delhi has not condemned Moscow for its war on Ukraine, launched by President Putin in 2022, and has not reduced oil and gas imports, in the medium and long term, this will accelerate the decline in Russia's value to India.
The fact is that, apparently, the prolongation of its own is inevitable, which can accelerate the decline of Russia's national power and deepen its dependence on China. Even if India tries to rely on Moscow in the fight against the Chinese threat, it will be completely impossible with Russia's dependence on China.
In this regard, it is possible that in the future India may lean more towards Japan, the United States and Australia. Some Indian scientists, especially among the younger generation, point to this possibility. Strategist Harsh Pant believes that India should be on the side of the democratic camp. An expert on China, Jagannath Panda, in his article published in 2022, hopefully says that India can accept the Asian version of NATO.
However, such views are not mainstream in Indian diplomatic and security circles. Indian officials who have served as national security adviser warn that it is unwise to ally with the West and that it is not worth taking the easy path in the fight against China. The line of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, according to which the “quartet” should not turn into an alliance, has been widely recognized.
In his book “Principles of Indian Diplomacy”, Minister Jaishankar notes the following: “The participants will have to develop relations on each specific issue, and in such a situation it often happens that further actions become uncertain. High qualifications will be required to consider various options and agree on obligations to numerous partners.
The interests of different countries will overlap, but the thinking will never coincide with any of the partners. The ability to find a common language with many centers of power will become a characteristic feature of diplomacy. The country that can do it the best will have the least problems in a group of comparable members. India needs to maintain contacts with as many parties as possible and extract maximum benefits from this.”
As can be seen from the above, India prefers to maintain the status quo and interact with both camps, not just one. She wants to find common ground with different sides and get the best of both worlds. Given these features of Indian diplomacy, it can be assumed that the probability of a scenario in which India will create an alliance with the West led by the United States is extremely small.
Now consider the opposite and perhaps the least desirable scenario for us. We are talking about the possibility of India joining China and Russia, as well as the creation of a corresponding Eurasian union or alliance.
In fact, India's partnership with China and Russia has been developing longer than with Japan, the USA, Australia and Japan. The quadrilateral structure between Japan, the USA, Australia and India was tested in 2007, but then it was put on pause for a while. It started working again only in 2017.
Unlike the Quartet, the concept of three countries, known as the RIC (Russia, India and China), was allegedly originally presented by Russian Prime Minister Primakov during his visit to India in 1998. Many Russian experts note that Russia seeks to include India, another Eurasian superpower, in this structure in order to weaken the influence of a growing China, as well as to restrain the United States.
The structure of the RIC was laid down in 2002 in the form of informal negotiations of foreign ministers. In 2005, meetings began to be regular: three countries began to take turns hosting forums. The first summit, although irregular, took place in 2006.
The full development of the RIC coincided with the strengthening of the unilateral tendencies of the Bush administration, including the war in Iraq. The joint statement adopted following the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the RIC countries around that time emphasized the need to democratize international relations and establish a just international order, as well as the importance of promoting multipolarity and the role of the UN.
In a word, India, together with China and Russia, said “no” to the attempts of the US superpower to create a unipolar world in which they will impose their will by interfering in the affairs of other countries by force, without the UN, and ignoring international cooperation.
When the Trump administration unilaterally canceled the Iran nuclear agreement, India urged the RIC not to waste the fruits of multilateral diplomacy. Perhaps in the future, India will join Russia and China and oppose American unipolar dominance.
