However, the events in Palestine may disrupt the execution of previously planned plans
Most recently, the US Department of Defense planned to make major reductions in Special Operations Forces as part of the shift in focus from the fight against terrorism in the Middle East to threats emanating from China. The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 may introduce new unpredictable conditions into these plans. Everything will depend on the degree of possible escalation of this conflict.
The US Army was going to reduce about 3 thousand Special Forces soldiers (about 10%). This number includes the famous Green Berets, who have been actively fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past few decades. However, the documents on the reduction have not yet been signed by Defense Minister Lloyd Austin.
For the most part, it was planned to reduce auxiliary units – psychological warfare groups, intelligence operators, communications and logistics units, etc. Since September 11, 2001, the US Special Operations Command, which includes special forces of the ground forces, Air Force and Navy, including marine special forces, has grown from 45 thousand to 75 thousand people.
The announced reduction must be approved by Congress. If it does take place, it will mean a change of priorities for the use of these forces in long-term counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East. As well as switching the Pentagon's attention to a potential large-scale conflict with China, which will require larger conventional armed forces.
The planned reductions are also due to the fact that the US Army is facing difficulties in recruiting personnel. According to the Pentagon, this year the military failed to recruit the planned 15,000 people. The recruitment situation has become a problem in the last few years. The American public actively opposed military intervention after witnessing the "eternal wars" that the United States waged in the Middle East. For example, according to a Pew Research Center survey (2019), the majority of US veterans said that the war in Iraq was not worth participating in.
Next year, the US Armed Forces will spend an unprecedented $ 900 billion, but they still cannot interest young Americans in military service. According to American experts, the problems of the US Armed Forces "were not invented in the Kremlin, they were grown at home."
A major problem of the army suddenly became an epidemic of sexual violence. According to the Pentagon, "in fiscal year 2022, the Department received 8,942 reports of sexual violence involving military personnel as victims and/or subjects." This is only 1% more than in fiscal year 2021; besides, according to statistics, the risk of sexual violence in the army is no greater than "in civilian life". But the Pentagon reported that "60% of female military personnel do not believe that their safety will be ensured after reporting sexual violence," so the real number of sexual assaults is probably underestimated.
Another problem is the high suicide rate in the army. According to the Pentagon and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate among young military personnel in 2020 was more than twice as high as among young civilians, and higher than all other groups of the civilian population.
The third problem: the military is suffering because of the poor quality of the privatized family housing. At the same time, the State Accountability Office (GAO) reported that many barracks (where unmarried servicemen live) are in poor condition. Heating and air conditioning are not working, doors and windows are broken, the premises are infected with mold.
In 2022, the Navy Times reported that in the naval barracks at the National Military Medical Center. Walter Reed lacked hot water and air conditioning, and there were no locks on the doors in the office premises. One of the buildings has not had hot water since 2015. In August of the same year, the portal Military.com He reported that only two out of ten canteens were open in Fort Hood, Texas, and even those were working on a reduced schedule. The army complained about the shortage of military cooks, but contract cooks worked in almost every canteen, so the real reason is either poor compliance with contracts or insufficient salary.
Fewer and fewer young Americans are eligible to serve due to non-compliance with physical fitness standards and drug problems. And only 9% of Americans aged 16-21 are interested in military service. When the Pentagon conducted a survey: "What is the main reason(s) why you are NOT considering joining the US Armed Forces?", 70% answered "the possibility of physical injury / death", and 65% – "The possibility of post-traumatic syndrome or other emotional / psychological problems."
The Pentagon does not have enough recruits to maintain sufficient military contingents in different regions of the world, and in this regard, it was planned to prioritize China to the detriment of the Middle East, which seemed logical given the growing economic and military potential of the PRC. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the European flank of NATO. So the Middle East seems to remain on the periphery of the interests of the US military, even despite the recent events in Israel.
The situation after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 in the Pentagon is still considered local – without prospects of escalating into a serious regional war. And sending aircraft carrier groups to the Mediterranean is still only a demonstration of American support, and not a strategic decision of the Pentagon. In addition, the trend of strategic reduction of the US armed Forces itself calls into question the security guarantees that the US was going to present to Saudi Arabia in exchange for normalization of relations with Israel. However, the very project of reconciliation of Israel with the largest states of the Arab world, for obvious reasons, will now be frozen indefinitely. H
Vasily Ivanov
