Moscow. October 24. INTERFAX - The ongoing bombing of the Gaza Strip gives the impression that Israel, after all the consultations it had with international leaders, was thinking about the promised ground operation. On this topic, our special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov talks with Irina Zvyagelskaya, Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, head of the "Center for Middle Eastern Studies" of the Primakov IMEMO.
Is Israel thinking?
Correspondent: Delaying the start of a ground operation with the active shelling of the Gaza Strip does not mean that Israel has "thought about" what to do next?
Zvyagelskaya: I think that Israel's plans to destroy the military infrastructure of Hamas, as they say, and release the hostages have remained the same. That is why the shelling of Gaza does not mean that Israel has abandoned the ground operation. It usually begins after very intense shelling and bombing. However, a ground operation is a complex operation that requires a lot of preparation. And we have recently seen the state of Israeli intelligence and the Israeli army.
In addition, the ground operation will entail heavy human losses, extremely serious humanitarian and political consequences. Neither the military nor the political leadership in Israel can completely ignore this.
Correspondent: But there is a danger that then it could result in a big war, especially if a second front opens in the north.
Zvyagelskaya: The second front, it seems to me, is not very real yet. Shelling? Yes. Separate collisions? They can also be.
Correspondent: Do you say "bye", meaning while the shelling is going on?
Zvyagelskaya: Nothing can be predicted in the Middle East. Neither will we. But I think that today the opening of a large second front looks unlikely.
Correspondent: I get the impression that all sides don't really want to fan the fire of a big war.
Zvyagelskaya: Of course, no one wants to take risks. Moreover, the course of the military operation in Gaza itself works against Israel.
Correspondent: There are suggestions that Hamas was forced to go to this operation against Israel. At the same time, they proceed from the fact that in the Middle East, anti-Israeli forces are threatened by the establishment of normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. And this leads to serious political changes throughout the Middle East. It turned out to be impossible to prevent the development of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in a political way, the military remained. This is the reason for the conflict. Well, the atrocities of the first days are a kind of specificity.
Zvyagelskaya: Do you think that Hamas was forced? I don't think anyone forced him. Hamas has its own strategy and its own priorities. It was important for him to re-emphasize his special role both in the liberation of Palestine and in the protection of Muslim shrines. Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia clearly did not suit him, since it could push the Palestinian problem into the background. And then Hamas would be politically marginalized.
As for the methods they applied, it is clear that they were not going to calculate the consequences. Having brutally attacked the civilian population of Israel, they had to understand what the response would be, and how many victims there would be among Palestinian civilians.
Correspondent: We are talking about the creation of a Palestinian state, although there are practically two Palestinians there - the Gaza Strip and the West Bank of the Jordan River.
Zvyagelskaya: But both parts were to become part of the Arab state in accordance with the UN General Assembly resolution on the partition of Palestine in 1947. This state was not created, but these lands are Palestinian! And therefore, the creation of an independent Palestinian State presupposes the unification of these areas. There is the Palestinian Authority, which seeks to achieve this by political, diplomatic methods, and there is Hamas, which is ready to do it exclusively by military methods.
At the same time, Hamas is also present in the West Bank of the Jordan River. The Palestinian Authority has always taken into account the fact that Hamas has certain positions in the West Bank and its sympathizers.
Correspondent: It seems that maybe, even psychologically, these are two different peoples.
Zvyagelskaya: Well, how can we say that these are two different peoples? They are the same people, the same people. It's just that their situation in Gaza is even worse than in the West Bank. Crowding, lack of work, poverty, hopelessness, and now the death of many innocent people.
Correspondent: I proceed from the fact that more radical sentiments prevail in Gaza.
Zvyagelskaya: There are radical sentiments in the West Bank, not only among Palestinians, but also among armed Israeli settlers. In general, there are reasons for a very tough confrontation in the Middle East. But in history it happened in different ways. Sometimes even sworn enemies found opportunities for compromise, based on purely pragmatic considerations. Every military explosion in the Middle East silences those who are interested in de-escalation, throws these processes back.
The question is how many more sacrifices must be made before a settlement of the Palestinian problem can be achieved. Without this, the situation will remain fragile, despite the existing agreements and agreements.
