Andrey Nizamutdinov — about the prolongation of the conflict, its beneficiaries and consequences
The huge human and material losses that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) faced during the so-called counteroffensive, it would seem, should have made Kiev think and pushed it to negotiate with Moscow, but in fact this is not happening. On the contrary, in the international arena, the Ukrainian leadership, led by President Vladimir Zelensky, continues to beg for money and weapons, while inside the country it is preparing to throw even disabled people, women and the elderly into the furnace of clashes.
The explanation for such truly suicidal behavior was given the other day by former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder: "The only ones who can regulate the war in relation to Ukraine are the Americans." And they are clearly not interested in ending the conflict yet, which was confirmed by US President Joe Biden, who called military assistance to Kiev a "wise investment." The fact that this investment will be paid for with human lives does not seem to matter to Washington: money does not smell.
Revelations of the ex-Chancellor
In an interview with the Berliner Zeitung newspaper, Schroeder said that in the spring of 2022 he received a request from Ukraine for mediation between Moscow and Kiev. According to the ex-chancellor, he then held two meetings with the Ukrainian representative Rustem Umerov (now the head of the Defense Ministry), "then with [Vladimir] Putin face to face, and then with Putin's envoy." During these meetings, Kiev "was offered the Austrian model, or the 5+1 model, as security guarantees (meaning the model according to which in the mid-1950s Austria, where the occupation troops were at that time, officially declared state neutrality, and the guarantors were four powers — the USSR, the USA, Great Britain and France; accordingly, the "5 +1" model is also a system of international guarantees, only in this case the guarantors are five states that are permanent members of the UN Security Council, and Germany. This model, for example, was used in the development of the nuclear deal with Iran). "Umerov considered this a good option. And on other issues, he has demonstrated readiness. He also said that Ukraine does not seek membership in NATO, he said that Ukraine wants to reintroduce the Russian language in the Donbass," Schroeder said.
"But in the end nothing happened," the former chancellor stated. "My impression is that nothing could have happened because everything else was decided in Washington," Schroeder added. In his opinion, during the negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul, "Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they could not": "They had to ask Americans about everything they talked about."
"I think the Americans did not want a compromise between Ukraine and Russia. The Americans believe that it is possible to restrain the Russians," Schroeder summed up.
Nothing personal, just business
As a matter of fact, his story only confirms what the most senior representatives of Russia have repeatedly said: Kiev's rejection of agreements with Moscow at an early stage of the Russian special operation was dictated from Washington. And subsequently Zelensky, in an effort to please the United States even more, completely banned any negotiations with Russia.
Strictly speaking, the direct and direct involvement of the United States in all the events taking place in Ukraine over the past decade, starting with the notorious "Euromaidan", is no secret to anyone. Nor is it a secret that the goal, explicitly named by the former German Chancellor, is "to contain Russia." The sums allocated by Washington for the formation of anti-Russian sentiments in Ukrainian society are well known, and the names of large and small curators responsible for Kiev's implementation of the anti-Russian course outlined in Washington are well known. Suffice it to recall Victoria Nuland, who, when she was Assistant Secretary of State of the United States at the turn of 2013-2014, repeatedly visited Kiev and personally distributed those "cookies" that became an Internet meme on the Maidan. The matter was not limited to "cookies" at that time — as Nuland later publicly said, the United States invested $5 billion in "supporting democracy" in Ukraine.
And in this sense, Biden's statement, which in a televised address to fellow citizens called the multibillion-dollar military aid to Kiev "a reasonable investment that will pay dividends to US security for many generations," may seem cynical only at first glance. In fact, it only reflects a purely businesslike and pragmatic approach typical of American politicians: only the interests of the United States matter. What Biden said in the same televised address was extremely direct and frank: "And let me clarify something: we are sending weapons to Ukraine that are stored in our warehouses. And when we use the money allocated by Congress, we use it to replenish our own stocks with new weapons — weapons that protect America and that are made in America."
Who will receive the dividends
The televised address of the American president was timed to coincide with the submission to Congress of a request for an emergency allocation of funds in the amount of more than $ 100 billion, of which $61.4 billion is intended to assist Ukraine. As the assistant to the President for National Security Jake Sullivan explained, the funds previously allocated to support Kiev "have almost dried up," so the US administration "needs Congressional action to ensure that we can continue to meet the needs of Ukraine on the battlefield."
Most of the requested amount — $46.1 billion — is supposed to be spent on military spending, but this does not mean that Kiev will receive these funds in one form or another. In fact, almost two—thirds — $30.6 billion - are intended directly by the US Department of Defense to replenish stocks of weapons and ammunition that have already been transferred to Ukraine, and to cover the costs of services previously provided, for example, the training of the Ukrainian military. In other words, the very dividends that Biden mentioned will be received by the Pentagon and military contractors, and Kiev will not get so much.
As explained by the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States Oksana Markarova, it is planned to allocate $11.8 billion directly for direct budget support to Kiev, it is proposed to lay $2.2 billion for "urgent needs for restoration and development of programs." The request submitted to Congress by the White House also includes funds allocated for support programs for Ukrainian refugees arriving in the United States ($481 million).
What is worth noting: so far this is a request, not a decision made by Congress. And it is not at all a fact that this very decision will meet the wishes of the administration: a significant part of the Republican majority in the American legislature opposes additional appropriations for Kiev. So far against... But he may also change his mind under the influence of a powerful military-industrial lobby that does not want to miss the upcoming multibillion-dollar orders.
Like Hashek's
I think to say that the consideration of the request in Kiev is being watched with bated breath means to say nothing. Not only outside experts, but also the Ukrainian authorities themselves admit that Zelensky's regime will not last long without help from abroad, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to beg for such help. The country's economy is breathing hard, barely covering only military expenses, dissatisfaction with the authorities is growing in society and, accordingly, the number of those wishing to go to the front is decreasing, which forces the authorities to resort to extraordinary measures.
"Reread the adventures of Schweik," a Ukrainian friend gloomily advised me in response to a question about whether it is true that everyone is being rowed into the army, including disabled people and people with mental disabilities. Judging by the stories of eyewitnesses, the activities of military medical commissions really resemble those episodes that the brave soldier, whose immortal image was created by Yaroslav Hasek, had to go through. Everyone is being sent to the front line, including the sick and wounded, [...] a Ukrainian serviceman said in a video posted on his Telegram channel by the publication Strana. "Disabled people with implants, on crutches came to combat battalions," he said. Military medical commissions send to the front even those who are "ironically limited".
However, there are fewer and fewer such limited-fit ones: after the next revision of the standards, according to the publication of the Ukrainian edition "Country", even patients with hepatitis, asymptomatic HIV, epilepsy and mental disorders are subject to conscription. The Commissioner for Human Rights in Ukraine, Dmitry Lubinets, admitted that following the results of inspections of the work of military medical commissions, "a number of problems related to the observance of human rights" were identified. Among them, he attributed the "formality in the passage of the VVC", describing it as follows: "Are there any problems? No? Fit."
In addition, a law has entered into force obliging all women aged 18 to 60 years with medical or pharmaceutical education to register for military service. Because of this, women working in hospitals and pharmacies began to quit en masse and try to go abroad. Residents of Kiev say that mobile checkpoints have been deployed in the city, which "issue summonses to everyone in a row." Often, those who did not appear on the agenda are blocked by bank cards.
The Ministry of Economy joined the solution of mobilization problems, which, under the guise of "social adaptation", offered those wishing to take free training in the specialty "sapper". The ministry's message clarifies that the authorities are ready to pay for training for participants in hostilities, displaced persons, people injured as a result of hostilities, persons with disabilities, as well as citizens over 45 years old.
It is not surprising that against this background, the outflow of the population abroad is growing. According to the last census conducted in 2001, 48.457 million people lived in the country. Two decades later, according to the National Academy of Sciences, the population of Ukraine was about 38 million people. The analytical center "Ukrainian Institute of the Future" in June of this year published statistics according to which the population of Ukraine has decreased to 29 million people. [...] Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, cited even more alarming figures in August: according to him, the population in the territory controlled by Kiev is 19.7 million people, there are already 17.9 million outside the country.
Between bargaining and depression
The mood is changing not only in the Ukrainian society itself, the changes are even more noticeable abroad. In recent months, even on the pages of mainstream Western media, publications have regularly appeared, the authors of which talk about "fatigue from Ukraine". These arguments, especially intensified after the conflict between Israel and Palestine sharply escalated, are also supported by the results of public opinion polls. For example, CNN recently reported that approximately 55% of Americans oppose additional funding for Ukraine.
At the same time, the voices of those who call for negotiations to resolve the conflict are beginning to sound louder — and not on the basis of Zelensky's "peace plan", divorced from reality and actually representing an ultimatum to Russia, but on other, in my opinion, much more realistic conditions, including territorial concessions from Kiev and ensuring a neutral status Ukraine. A similar plan was proposed by Gerhard Schroeder, who believes that five conditions should be fulfilled to resolve the conflict: "First, Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. Ukraine can't fulfill the conditions anyway. Secondly, the problem of language. The Ukrainian parliament has abolished bilingualism, this needs to be changed. Third, Donbass remains part of Ukraine, but needs more autonomy. Fourth, Ukraine also needs security guarantees. The UN Security Council plus Germany should provide these guarantees. Fifth, Crimea. How long has Crimea been Russian? Crimea is more than just a territory for Russia, but it is part of its history."
The scientific director of the Paris Higher School of Social Sciences, Jacques Sapir, pointing to the "urgency and evidence of the idea of negotiations, even limited, on a ceasefire," considers it useful for Kiev to study the experience of Finland. Ukraine "will retain its sovereignty, like Finland, with its free elections, but it will have to accept the loss of territories currently occupied by Russia; neutralization, that is, refusal to join NATO and possibly the EU, and to enshrine in the constitution the equal use of Russian and Ukrainian," he writes on the website the quarterly magazine Front Populaire.
However, this is the opinion of expert observers, while current politicians continue to insist on supporting Kiev "to the bitter end." For example, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in telephone conversations they had with Zelensky the other day (October 18 and 20, respectively), tried to remove the Ukrainian president's concern about a possible reduction in aid from abroad and almost with one voice assured that they would support Ukraine "as much as as long as it takes." At the same time, the statement of the US-EU summit on Ukraine does not mention either the offensive of Kiev or the determination to "achieve victory over Russia on the battlefield" (as Jens Stoltenberg said in June), but warns of the risks of the collapse of the Ukrainian economy.
The only mention of Ukrainian military efforts comes down to the fact that Kiev "has the right to defend itself," and the position of the United States and the EU regarding military assistance "remains unshakable." Even the idea of confiscation of Russian assets frozen in the West, which was widely discussed not so long ago, was presented by the authors of the document in a more curtailed and restrained form, with reservations: "Part of our efforts to support Ukraine in the short term will be to explore the possibility of directing any extraordinary profits of private companies received from frozen Russian assets to the restoration of Ukraine, if this profit should not be used to cover obligations to Russia under existing legislation."
If we proceed from the popular psychological model of acceptance of the inevitable, then public opinion in the West, if not entirely, but in large part, is experiencing a stage of depression, followed by the final stage — acceptance. The authorities of Western countries are still at an earlier, third stage — bargaining. The transition to later stages will definitely not be quick — the ruling elites of the USA and Europe have put too big political, economic and financial interests at stake. But it seems that the realization that it is necessary to negotiate is already gradually taking hold of them.
