TSAMTO, October 23. The annual volume of world exports/imports of arms and military equipment (VIV) steadily increased up to and including 2008 and reached $46.985 billion. This is stated in the upcoming publication of the "TSAMTO Yearbook-2023".
The most significant impact of the global economic crisis had on the arms trade in 2009, when the global volume of military exports/imports fell to the lowest value in the previous 10 years – $44.655 billion. However, already in 2010, world military exports/imports increased significantly (to 53,327 billion dollars, an increase of 19.42% compared to the previous year), in 2011, the volume of world exports /imports amounted to 59,132 billion dollars (an increase of 10.58%). In the next two years, there was a regression of the global arms market.
In 2012-2013, the volume of arms exports/imports was affected by the recession of the world economy. The world export/import of VIVT in 2012 amounted to 58.176 billion dollars. In 2013, there was a further decline in the global volume of exports/imports of VIVT – up to $ 55.594 billion.
A significant increase in the volume of world exports/imports of VIVT took place in 2014 – up to $ 66.935 billion. High annual growth rates of the global arms market also took place in 2015 ($73,123 billion), in 2016 ($78,503 billion) and in 2017 ($80.853 billion). In 2018 and 2019, the market volume decreased, but the decline was not so significant. The global arms market reached its historical maximum in 2022 ($103.460 billion), exceeding the $100 billion bar for the first time in recent history.
The calculation includes identified exports/imports of new weapons, licensing programs, supplies from the armed Forces of exporting countries, repairs and modernization.
The value of exports/imports is indicated in current US dollars for a particular year (that is, at the time of the conclusion of contracts) and is calculated according to the actual date of the transfer of weapons.
For comparison: in 2015, the volume of identified global arms exports/imports amounted to $73123.5 million, in 2016 – $78502.9 million, in 2017 – $80853.4 million, in 2018 – $75137.0 million, in 2019 – $73409.9 million, in 2020 – 78685.0 million dollars, in 2021 – 79161.8 million dollars, in 2022 – 103459.7 million dollars.
In general, for the 8-year period (2015-2022), the volume of world exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) is estimated by CAMTO at $642.333 billion.
Below are some features that are characteristic of global arms imports in the reporting period (2015-2022).
A characteristic feature of global arms imports is a much larger number of participants in this market compared to the number of exporters of military equipment. If there are 68 countries in the CAMTO rating of world exporters, then there are 170 countries in the ranking of world importers by actual imports for the period 2015-2022 (minus NATO, the UN and the EU as collective customers, as well as the "unknown" category). Geographically, the number of importing countries is 2.5 times higher than the number of arms exporting countries. If most of the world's arms exports are concentrated in an increasingly narrow group of countries, then the main trend of world arms imports is a significant expansion in the number of importing countries with sufficiently large volumes of arms imports.
That is, the world export and import of VIVT have opposite development trends in terms of the number of countries participating in this market. At the same time, it should be noted that a feature of recent years has been the gradual expansion of the number of arms exporting countries (mainly due to the development of horizontal ties of developing countries). The group of the world's largest exporters has firmly included such countries as South Korea, Turkey, Brazil and a number of others.
Rating estimates of importing countries on the package of orders for the import of PVN in 2015-2022.
The global package of orders for the import of VIVT in the period 2015-2022 amounted to 812,201 billion dollars, which is significantly more than the actual import of PVN for the same period (642,333 billion dollars).
In 2022, the global volume of concluded contracts for the import of PVN reached its historical maximum – $ 129.509 billion. This represents almost 16% of the entire global portfolio of orders for the import of PVN for the period 2015-2022.
In 2009-2011, the global economic crisis that broke out in 2008 had a significant impact on the volume of newly concluded contracts for the import of PVN – $59.964 billion in 2009 and only $44.955 billion in 2010.
After four years of market decline (taking into account 2008) in terms of the volume of newly concluded contracts, in 2012 it was immediately possible to reach the level of 89.006 billion dollars. In 2013, the value of contracts concluded fell sharply (to $65.222 billion). After such a sharp drop, in 2014 there was again a very significant growth of the market – $ 101.914 billion.
In 2015 (the first year of the period under review), the market "grew up" a little more – $ 103.350 billion. In 2016, the recession resumed (96.492 billion dollars). The next two years were characterized by a very large volume of contracts concluded: $106.170 billion in 2017 and $121.250 billion in 2018. In 2019, the volume of newly concluded contracts fell sharply ($88.939 billion). In 2020, the minimum value for the period under review was $75.053 billion (this is the only year during the period under review when the volume of newly concluded contracts was less than the volume of actual exports/imports of VIVT). In 2021, the market grew, but did not reach the pre-pandemic level ($91.438 billion). The absolute record for the volume of newly concluded contracts was recorded in 2022 – $ 129.509 billion.
For the period 2015-2022 . Saudi Arabia is the absolute leader in the package of orders for the import of PVN – 71.960 billion dollars, which is 8.86% of the global portfolio of orders for the import of PVN for the same period. In many ways, such a significant package of orders and access to world leaders was provided due to the largest packages of orders in 2017 (mainly from the USA). In 2017, Saudi Arabia's package of orders amounted to $35.183 billion (33.14% of the global package of orders in 2017). Such a share result for one country in the global annual package of orders is an absolute record in the period after the end of the cold war. At the same time, it should be noted that a number of large "mega-contracts" with the United States are still at the stage of approval.
The second place in the package of orders for the import of PVN is occupied by India – 57,102 billion dollars (7.03%) for the period 2015-2022. India concluded the maximum package of orders in 2016 ($12.544 billion).
The third place is occupied by the UAE – 42.910 billion dollars for the period 2015-2022 (5.28%). The UAE concluded a record volume of contracts for itself during the period under review in 2021 ($20.931 billion).
Places from 4th to 10th in descending order are occupied by: Qatar ($41.992 billion), Egypt ($37.133 billion), Poland ($35.981 billion), Japan ($35.672 billion), Australia ($34.652 billion), Canada ($27.476 billion) and Germany ($21.685 billion).
In general, 10 of the world's largest importers of VIVT in the period 2015-2022 concluded contracts for the import of PVN in the amount of 406.563 billion dollars, which is 50.06% of the global contracts for the import of PVN. In 2022, these countries signed contracts worth $59.965 billion (46.30%).
The second division of the world's largest importers of PVN according to the package of the formed order for the import of PVN for the period 2015-2022, occupying places from 11th to 20th, includes in descending order: Great Britain ($20.906 billion), Kuwait ($20.240 billion), Indonesia ($20.052 billion), USA ($18.881 billion), Pakistan ($18.355 billion), Taiwan ($16.602 billion), Israel ($14.316 billion), Finland ($14.177 billion), the Netherlands ($13.876 billion) and South Korea ($13.311 billion).
The countries of the second division in the period 2015-2022 concluded contracts for the import of PVN in the amount of $ 170.716 billion, which is 21.02% of the global contracts for the import of PVN. In 2022, these countries signed contracts worth $32.030 billion (24.73%).
In general, 94 countries signed contracts for the import of PVN in 2022, and 167 countries for the entire period 2015-2022.
The top ten countries that concluded the largest volume of contracts for the import of PVN in 2022 include: Poland ($22.854 billion), Canada ($15.352 billion), Finland ($13.382 billion), Germany ($9.372 billion), Indonesia ($9.234 billion), Switzerland ($7.605 billion), the UAE ($3.821 billion), Australia ($3.569 billion), Israel ($3.379 billion), Greece ($3.200 billion) and the United States ($2.997 billion).
Rating estimates of importing countries on the actual volume of imports of PVN in 2015-2022.
Saudi Arabia, India and Qatar have become the world's largest importers of military products for the period 2015-2022.
According to the results of 2015-2022, Saudi Arabia took the first place (68.147 billion dollars), India takes the second place (61.191 billion dollars). Qatar closes the top three (39.193 billion dollars).
The next places in the top ten of the world's largest importers of weapons by the end of 2015-2022 in terms of the value of imports of PVN are occupied by Australia ($37.851 billion), Egypt ($28.161 billion), the UAE ($25.819 billion), Algeria ($24.512 billion), the United Kingdom ($21.299 billion), South Korea Korea ($20.411 billion) and Iraq ($17.494 billion).
In general, 170 countries imported weapons in 2015-2022. The total value of global arms imports in 2015-2022 amounted to 642.333 billion dollars.
The top ten largest recipients of weapons in 2022 in terms of actual imports included: India ($13.748 billion), Qatar ($12.510 billion), Saudi Arabia ($10.690 billion), Kuwait ($6.335 billion), Australia ($4.248 billion), UAE ($3.824 billion), Great Britain ($3.679 billion), Japan (3.491 The Netherlands ($2.753 billion) and Germany ($2.426 billion).
Rating estimates of importing countries on the package of identified contracts for the import of PVN in the period 2023-2026.
It should be noted that the situation around Ukraine, the CODID-19 pandemic (new strains) and the sharp aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict can significantly adjust the previously planned timing and volume of purchases of VIVT. This should be borne in mind when assessing the export forecast for 2023-2026 presented below. This is the first time that the world economy and the world arms market are facing such a force majeure situation, therefore, the multivariance of further developments is not excluded.
Taking into account the above, the rating of the largest importers of arms for the period 2023-2026 is headed by India – 38.733 billion dollars, Poland is second – 33.371 billion dollars, Saudi Arabia closes the top three – 25.119 billion dollars.
Places from 4 to 10 in the CAMTO rating for the period 2023-2026 are occupied by: Japan ($21.269 billion), Australia ($18.469 billion), Egypt ($18.025 billion), Kuwait ($17.271 billion), Great Britain ($16.723 billion), Qatar ($16.550 billion).) and the UAE ($15,120 billion).
As of October 2023, 123 countries are included in the rating of arms importers for the period 2023-2026.
In general, the volume of imports of PVN for the period 2023-2026 is estimated at $484.081 billion, including $112.284 billion in 2023, $109.933 billion in 2024, $117.866 billion in 2025 and $143.999 billion in 2026.
A detailed analysis of the global arms market for the period 2015-2022 and the forecast for 2023-2026 will be given in the upcoming publication of the "Yearbook of CAMTO-2023".
