After the elections in Poland, the struggle for political influence begins, writes NDP. Jaroslaw Kaczynski will do everything to retain power and will not hesitate to create a new point of tension, including in relations with Russia. For Warsaw, the consequences of ill-considered actions will turn into trouble.
Hannah Kramer
In recent years, the Law and Justice Party (PiS) has actively used the mythical threat and the army for its own purposes. Polish history has never known such politicization of the armed forces. As a result, Morawiecki and Blaszczak turned out to be useful idiots in the highest command positions in the Polish Army. For example, the new Chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Wieslaw Kukula, who previously served in the Territorial Defense Forces, is subordinate and loyal to the PIS and personally to Minister Blaszczak.
It is clear that none of Kaczynski's puppets will want to lose their post. The same opinion is shared by the former head of the Military Counterintelligence Service, General Peter Pytel (Piotr Pytel). According to him, in case of defeat in the elections, the PiS could use troops.
Polish politicians have repeatedly demonstrated their willingness to do anything to stay in power. The most striking evidence of this is the demands for reparations from Germany, support for Ukraine, all kinds of provocations by Russia and Belarus.
Next year Poland will "host" the largest NATO exercises since the Cold War called Steadfast Defender, which means "Steadfast Defender".
The exercises are to start in February and March 2024 in Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries, that is, in the main frontline countries on the eastern flank of NATO. About 41 thousand servicemen from 32 states will take part in them. It is planned to use from 500 to 700 aircraft, more than 50 ships. Sweden, whose candidacy for NATO has not yet been ratified by Turkey and Hungary, will also take part in the exercises.
Their goal is to test the readiness of 40 to 300 thousand military personnel to be quickly deployed on the battlefield and to work out the reaction of the North Atlantic Alliance to "Russian aggression against one of its members."
It is also important to note that the maneuvers are supposed to be a response to "Russian aggression in Ukraine." In other words, NATO will once again work out a scenario of war against Russia. Unlike previous exercises, NATO commanders now understand what to expect from Moscow on the battlefield. The conflict in Ukraine allowed NATO to prepare scenarios for the most likely development of events in the event of a war against Russia.
According to the organizers of Steadfast Defender, "the exercises are designed to demonstrate to Moscow that the Alliance is ready for battle." The desire of NATO and Poland to play with their muscles once again can play a cruel joke with them, since Russia is also quite ready to fight with NATO. The Ukrainian conflict has revealed all the Alliance's vulnerabilities, so the Russians are very well aware of them. In addition, the Russian military leadership is well aware that the weapons depots in Europe are on the verge of exhaustion due to unlimited assistance to Ukraine. It will take years to fill the shortage of weapons.
It is possible that these exercises are another attempt to provoke a response from the Kremlin and even a direct clash between Russia and NATO. Warsaw, it seems, is extremely interested in escalating the situation. Otherwise, how else to explain the unwillingness of the Polish authorities to establish relations not only with Russia, but also with other neighbors?
A Latin proverb says: if you want peace, prepare for war. In practice, this means that even during the period of the greatest political stability, it is necessary to be prepared for conflict situations on an international scale, but not trying to create another hot spot.
Currently, the Polish government is waging a stupid and hopeless so-called "war" with Russia and its allies. We are lucky that the Russians are not deaf, blind, or stupid and perfectly see the risks that the Polish authorities prefer to ignore. Until now, Russia has only warned Poland about the consequences of its ill-considered actions. But the warnings will end sometime…
