TSAMTO, October 20. During the reporting 8-year period (2015-2022), the United States is the undisputed leader in arms exports – $ 257.467 billion, which is 40.1% of the total world exports of military equipment for the same period ($642.333 billion).
A detailed analysis of the global arms market for the period 2015-2022 will be given in the upcoming publication of the "Yearbook of CAMTO-2023".
For most of the period under review, US military exports ranged from a minimum value of $27.4 billion (2021) to a maximum value of $33.504 billion in 2019. The record year for the United States was 2022, when military exports reached $ 45.360 billion.
The low results for the United States at the beginning of the period under review were explained by the delay in the implementation of deliveries under a number of major contracts with Egypt and Iraq, as well as the postponement of deliveries under major contracts with a number of Middle Eastern countries.
A very high result for 2022 is associated with deliveries under "mega-contracts" with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the export program for the supply of F-35 fighters to the maximum level.
Analysis of the cost volumes of deliveries of US military equipment in 2015-2022 by individual categories of weapons
An analysis of the volume of global supplies of VIVT by individual categories in 2015-2022 confirms the unconditional leadership of the United States. Of the 29 categories of ViVT taken into account (given at the end of this article), the USA is present in 23 of them, with the USA taking first place in 14 categories, second place in 7 categories, and third place in 2 categories.
According to the actual volume of deliveries of VIVT in 2015-2022, the United States ranks first in the following 14 categories of weapons: multi-purpose fighters (55.18% of the world's fighter supplies), BPA aircraft (79.25%), AWACS aircraft (57.92%), reconnaissance aircraft (76.73%), mini and micro-UAVs (70.18%), attack helicopters (66.20%), PLO helicopters (67.20%), heavy transport helicopters (91.87%), multi-purpose helicopters (32.25%), MRAP class armored vehicles (42.57%), ATGMS (48.49%), MLRS (21.75%), ZRS (49.34%) and ZAU (48.72%). Moreover, in 8 of these 14 categories, the US share exceeds 50%, that is, in 8 categories of weapons, the US has an overwhelming advantage over other exporting countries.
The US ranks second in the categories of tanker aircraft (13.45%), military transport aircraft (32.87%), TCB (23.19%), MALE and HALE class UAVs (29.9%), tactical UAVs (17.54%), MBT (30.41%), and armored vehicles (30.09%).
The United States ranks third in the categories of attack aircraft (19.80%) and MANPADS (13.15%).
The USA is not present in the leading three countries only in 6 categories: UBS, BNK OK, NAPL, boats and small amphibious ships, BBM, guns and mortars.
Forecast of US arms exports for the period 2023-2026.
As of October 2023, in general, over a 4-year period (2023-2026), the projected volume of world exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) is estimated by CAMTO at $484.081 billion.
The rating of the largest arms exporters for the period 2023-2026 is headed by the United States – $ 216.359 billion (44.7%) of the world market. That is, the United States will further strengthen its position in the global market compared to 2015-2022. (the growth of the US share indicator in the world market of export sales of VIVT will be 4.6%).
The forecast of the cost volumes of deliveries of US military equipment in 2023-2026 for certain categories of weapons
The analysis of the volume of the global portfolio of orders for individual categories of VIVT, formed as of October 2023, confirms the unconditional leadership of the United States in the period 2023-2026. Of the 29 categories of VIVT taken into account, the United States is present in 21 of them, and in 20 categories the United States occupies first place and second place in 1 category.
According to the formed portfolio of orders for the supply of VIVT in the period 2023-2026, the United States ranks first in the following 20 categories of weapons: multi-purpose fighters (55.31% of the global portfolio of orders for the supply of fighters in the period 2023-2026), tanker aircraft (28.26%), BPA aircraft (88.87%), military transport aircraft (42.52%), AWACS aircraft (65.88%), reconnaissance aircraft (75.37%), MALE and HALE class UAVs (44.58%), mini and micro UAVs (69.42%), attack helicopters (79.37%), PLO helicopters (69.06%), heavy transport helicopters (100%), multipurpose helicopters (47.81%), BNK OK (25.68%), MBT (34.93%), armored vehicles (35.74%), armored vehicles of the MRAP class (39.58%), ATGMS (58.21%), MLRS (46.43%), SAMS (35.32%) and MANPADS (41.40%). Moreover, in 9 out of 20 categories, the US share exceeds 50%, that is, in 9 categories of weapons, the US already has an overwhelming advantage over other exporting countries. In addition, the United States participates in the absolute majority of tenders, many of which have high chances of winning. That is, the US share in the global arms market is likely to increase even more as a result of summing up the results of these tenders.
The second place is occupied by the United States in the category of tactical UAVs (16.67%).
The United States is not present in the leading three countries only in 8 categories: attack aircraft, UBS, TCB, NAPL, boats, BBM, guns and mortars and SAU.
Geography of US VIVT exports by regions of the world in the period 2015-2022.
In the structure of American military exports in 2015-2022 . The Middle East, according to CAMTO, accounted for 43.41% ($111.764 billion). of the total volume of US air defense supplies ($257.467 billion). With this result, the Middle East ranks first in the structure of US military exports for the period 2015-2022.
The calculation takes into account the volume of identified exports of conventional weapons according to the classification of the UN Register. The cost volume is calculated based on the actual date of the transfer of weapons.
The second place in the structure of US military exports for the period 2015-2022 is occupied by the Asia-Pacific region – 84.566 billion dollars (32.84%).
For the entire 8-year period, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific countries were the two dominant regions in the overall balance of US military exports.
The third place in the structure of US military exports for the period 2015-2022 is occupied by Western European countries – 37.165 billion dollars (14.43%).
The fourth place is occupied by the countries of Eastern Europe – 7,270 billion dollars (2.82%).
The fifth place is occupied by South America (including Mexico) – $ 5.578 billion (1.97%).
The next places in the regional balance of US military exports for the period 2015-2022 are occupied by North American countries (supplies to Canada) – $ 4,293 billion, North African countries – $ 3,227 billion, countries in the post–Soviet space - $ 655.8 million, "tropical" Africa (countries south of the Sahara Desert) – $ 423.2 million., Central American and Caribbean countries – $210.4 million.
In the category of "unknown" region, deliveries amounted to $2.314 billion.
Geography of exports of US VIVT in the period 2023-2026.
In the structure of American military exports in 2023-2026, the Asia-Pacific region will take the first place, the share of which, according to CAMTO, will be 31.29% (67.694 billion dollars). of the total volume of projected supplies of US air defense in the amount of $ 216.359 billion.
The calculation takes into account the volume of identified exports of conventional weapons according to the classification of the UN Register. The cost volume is calculated according to the planned date of the transfer of weapons. The long-term programs include supplies that are planned to be implemented until 2026 inclusive.
The share of the Middle East countries in the structure of US military exports in 2023-2026 will decrease significantly and amount to 28.44% ($61.530 billion). The shift of this region to the second position in the rating indicates the gradual exhaustion of supplies under "mega-contracts" with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Note: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict may make significant adjustments to the forecast for the Middle East. Although now the United States supplies weapons to Israel as military aid (that is, free of charge and urgently), in the future it is possible to conclude large commercial contracts with Israel that fall into the category of "arms trade. An increase in the supply of US VIVT to other countries of the Middle East in excess of the existing order portfolio is unlikely, since all countries in the region took Joe Baden's unequivocal support of Israel "with hostility".
In general, the share of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of US military exports in 2023-2026 will account for $129.224 billion (59.72%).
Over the entire 4-year period, the Asia-Pacific countries and the Middle East will be the two dominant regions in the overall balance of US military exports.
The third place in the structure of US military exports for the period 2023-2026 will be occupied by Western European countries – $ 43.457 billion (20.08%).
The fourth place will be taken by the Eastern Europe region – $ 27.032 billion (12.49%).
The fifth place will be taken by the region of North Africa – $ 9.765 billion.
The next places in the regional balance of US military exports for the period 2023-2026 will be occupied by countries in the post–Soviet space – $ 1.897 billion, North American countries (supplies to Canada) – $ 1.673 billion, African countries south of the Sahara Desert – $ 1.328 billion, South America (including Mexico) - $ 693.3 million, Central American and Caribbean countries – $18.2 million
According to the "unknown region" category (at the moment), deliveries will amount to $ 1.271 billion.
It should be noted that the United States will be the main beneficiary in any development of the situation in Ukraine. After the donor countries supply a huge amount of obsolete weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when purchasing new weapons (to replenish stocks) these countries will mainly focus on the United States. That is, the United States is likely to have an avalanche-like growth of new contracts, including during the period under review (it is impossible to calculate this yet).
The CAMTO analysis of the world arms market takes into account weapons for 8 main types of weapons according to the classification of the UN Register.
Each type is divided into several categories according to its functional purpose. In total, 29 categories of VIVT were considered.
In the category "aviation equipment": multi-purpose fighters, attack aircraft, tanker aircraft, basic patrol aircraft, military transport aircraft, AWACS aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, jet combat training aircraft and turboprop training aircraft.
In the category of UAVs: medium-altitude and strategic UAVs, tactical and mini-UAVs.
In the category "helicopter equipment": attack helicopters, anti-submarine and maritime patrol helicopters, heavy transport helicopters, multi-purpose helicopters of medium and light class.
In the category of "naval equipment": combat surface ships of the main class (aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, minesweeping ships, tank landing ships), submarines, boats (missile, artillery, patrol, amphibious, coastal and marine zones).
In the category "armored vehicles": MBT, armored fighting vehicles (infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers), armored vehicles and armored vehicles of the MRAP class.
In the category of "rocket and artillery weapons": ATGM (ATGM), MLRS, artillery systems (PA and CAO guns), mortars.
In the category of "air defense systems": long-range anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, short- and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles, MANPADS, SAU.
In the regional aspect, all the countries of the world are formed into the following groups by CAMTO.
1. Countries of the Asia-Pacific region (29 countries).
Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, North Korea, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Tonga, Fiji, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan.
2. Countries of North and Northeast Africa (11 countries).
Algeria, Djibouti, Libya, Mauritania, Mali, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia.
3. African countries south of the Sahara Desert (39 countries).
Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Cameroon, Comoros, Congo, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, DRC, Kenya, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Swaziland, Seychelles, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, CAR, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa.
4. Middle East countries (16 countries).
Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey.
5. Countries in the post-Soviet space (15 countries).
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine.
6. Eastern European countries (13 countries).
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia. .
7. Western European countries (20 countries).
Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Iceland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Finland, France, Switzerland, Sweden.
8. South American countries and Mexico (13 countries).
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.
9. Central American and Caribbean countries (15 countries).
Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago.
10. North American countries (2 countries).
Canada, USA.
A detailed analysis of the global arms market for the period 2015-2022 and the forecast for 2023-2026 will be given in the upcoming publication of the "Yearbook of CAMTO-2023".
