Vladimir Putin ridiculed US President Joe Biden's claims that Russia is losing in the Ukrainian conflict. In his opinion, the United States would not have supplied Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles if Russia had been defeated. In the expert environment, these deliveries are called another confirmation of the failure of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive". What are the features of these missiles and what consequences can their use lead to?
Russian President Vladimir Putin called the claims of his American counterpart Joe Biden about Russia's "defeat" in the conflict in Ukraine ridiculous. "If the war is lost by Russia, why supply ATACMS? Let them take back ATACMS, all other weapons, sit down for pancakes, come to our tea party," Putin said on Wednesday at a press conference in Beijing.
The Head of State stressed that in the case of a "lost war", the motives for the supply of ATACMS are unclear, and noted that this question can be asked to the American administration. "Well, it's funny," the Russian president added.
According to Putin, the United States made a big mistake, because the supply of ATACMS to Ukraine causes harm and creates an additional threat, but Russia will be able to repel such attacks. "War is war. And of course, I said that they (ATACMS missiles) pose a threat, it goes without saying. But most importantly, it is fundamentally unable to change the situation on the contact line at all. Impossible. This can be said for sure," the Russian president said.
According to Putin, if the United States had refused this delivery, "they could have said in the future: "Well, if we had delivered everything, then the situation would have changed, but this would have led to unnecessary casualties. Here we are such good fellows, we didn't do it." "But they did it. And there will be no result. That's why it's a mistake," Putin explained.
According to the American press, the United States secretly handed over to Ukraine about 20 tactical ballistic missiles ATACMS, provided that Kiev undertakes not to use them on targets in Russia. This is due to the fears of American officials who believe that such a step "may lead to the crossing of one of the "red lines" of the Russian Federation" and lead to further escalation of the conflict. At the same time, the United States does not recognize Crimea, Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as Russian.
According to The Washington Post, the flight range of the ATACMS transferred to Kiev is about 160 km. They are launched from HIMARS and MLRS installations, which are at the disposal of the APU. More modern complexes have a firing range of up to 300 kilometers. The decision to send Ukraine an older version of the missiles was made against the background of "the impossibility of their use in a conflict involving American forces," as well as due to the fact that "stocks of newer systems are extremely small."
The decision to transfer the missiles was kept secret due to "fears of a possible Russian strike during the import of missiles into the country." Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that any military cargo for Ukraine will become a legitimate target for Russia. On Smolenskaya Square, they said that NATO countries were "playing with fire" by supplying weapons to Ukraine.
ATACMS began to be developed in the early 80s, and were first used during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. Later they were involved during the war in Afghanistan (2001-2021) and the Iraq War (2003-2011). The missiles are in service with the United States, Turkey, Greece, Poland, Bahrain, Romania, the Republic of Korea and the UAE. The State Department also approved the sale of these missiles to Australia, Taiwan, Estonia and Lithuania.
"ATACMS missiles will not be able to fundamentally change anything on the battlefield. The version delivered to Ukraine has a flight range of up to 160 kilometers, but the S-200 missiles available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces can hit targets at a distance of more than 200 kilometers, and the Tochka-U is 120 kilometers," notes Konstantin Sivkov, Vice president of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences.
The expert stressed that the weak point of ATACMS is the ballistic flight path, which facilitates its destruction by air defense and missile defense systems. He is convinced that ATACMS will be "ground". "Missiles flying at extremely low altitudes, such as Storm Shadow/ SCALP-EG and, if available to the APU, the Swedish-German Taurus KEPD 350, are much more dangerous," Sivkov added.
The United States is raising the stakes and "somewhere stepping over the red lines", supplying Ukraine with more and more long-range equipment, says Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. "The US strategy has not changed: on the one hand, they must support Ukraine, and on the other – not to provoke a third world war. Now, once again, some novelty has arisen, they are making us "surprises" by supplying ATACMS, but this applies more to military tactics than to strategy," the speaker believes.
Kozyulin emphasized that "the APU, obviously, failed in their counteroffensive, everyone has already recognized this." "Now the strategy is changing – NATO and the APU want to stop Russian activity," the expert said.
"Western countries will supply more and more heavy weapons, but they will not be able to significantly change anything, but will only prolong the time of the special operation. The delivery of ATACMS missiles is another confirmation of the failure of the AFU counteroffensive and the US impotence in an attempt to turn the tide. In fact, this gesture masks their mistakes," agrees military expert Mikhail Onufrienko. According to the interlocutor 's assessment,
even if the US doubles the supply of ATACMS, "it will not change anything on the battlefield, except for the appearance of the next victims."
Onufrienko believes that these supplies will not force, for example, the Germans to transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine. In his opinion, the Germans will "slow down to the last" the issue of sending weapons, whose minimum flight range is about 500 kilometers.
"Such a range of use of the APU is clearly not needed, they need something more modest. The Germans will resist to the last, but the Americans can, of course, push through the "liver sausage" of Scholz. The only question is whether they have enough time and energy for this, given the international situation," Onufrienko says.
Kozyulin also agrees that the Germans may eventually deliver their missiles to Ukraine. But at the same time, he recalled an informal political agreement between 35 countries that seek to limit the spread of missiles and missile technologies. The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) was formed in 1987 by the industrially developed countries of the "Big Seven". The current participants in the Ukrainian conflict also follow the spirit of the MTCR, according to which the supply of missiles with a flight range of more than 300 kilometers and a warhead weight of 500 kilograms is limited.
"The United States and Great Britain determine the level of those weapons that are supplied to Ukraine. So far, the bar has increased slightly. The Taurus KEPD 350 is the latest weapon. There will be a sensitive moment for Germany in such deliveries, because Russia can somehow get information about German missile technologies, study telemetry and improve its air defense systems. Ukraine is a country where other people's secrets always leak out. Therefore, Germany does not want to be ahead of the whole planet in terms of the supply of the latest weapons," Kozyulin explained.
Andrey Rezchikov,
Ilya Abramov
