World leaders speak out: who is for a peaceful, and who is for a military solution to the conflict
Russian President Putin believes that the Israelis faced "an unprecedented attack, which has not been in history, and not only in scale, but also in the nature of execution, in cruelty." The response actions of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF, IDF) are "large-scale and also quite brutal methods." Despite all the bitterness on both sides, Putin urged them to "think about the civilian population," to search for tools to solve the accumulated problems, to look for a way out of the situation, including through "mediation efforts."
To do this, Moscow is ready to use long–standing ties with the Arab world - with a common understanding that it is necessary to create a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
So far, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not listened to such advice on a peaceful solution to the long-standing conflict with the Palestinians, giving priority to military influence.
The provisional Cabinet of Ministers of the State of Israel, formed in a great hurry, met for the first time on October 15. By that time, the fighting in the country had been going on for a week, killing more than 3,500 people, 2,300 of them Palestinians. Netanyahu said: "Hamas thought we would fall apart. We will destroy Hamas" (referring to the "Islamic Resistance Movement"). He stated the "unity and solidarity" of the new government and the work of its members "around the clock as a team and a united front." "I have seen our wonderful soldiers who are now on the front line. They know that the whole nation is behind them. They understand the magnitude of the task. They are ready to act at any moment to exterminate the bloody monsters that have risen up against us," the prime minister said.
It's one thing to make loud statements, it's another to give a clear order to the military. On October 14, the AOI reported on readiness for the next stage of combat operations, which implies conducting a military operation on the territory of the Palestinian enclave in the Gaza Strip. However, the very next day, local media reported that the operation was postponed due to low clouds interfering with the work of aviation.
Israel's permanent representative to the UN, Gilad Erdan, said that the government will not conduct peace talks with Hamas, but a war of annihilation. And according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, "Israel's actions have gone beyond self-defense," it is necessary to immediately stop the collective punishment of residents of the Gaza Strip (on October 7, the Israeli authorities turned off their lights and water). Earlier, the same definitions were made to Israel by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi.
"China condemns all actions that harm the civilian population, as they run counter to human conscience and violate the basic norms of international law," Wang Yi stressed.
Netanyahu's bet on a forceful solution to the Palestinian issue rests on the fact that after the 1982 Lebanon War, the AOI did not face a strong opponent. For decades, the fight against the Palestinian insurgents was conducted mainly by special forces. Today, it bears the brunt of the fighting with Hamas, and individual units have already lost half of their personnel, and the losses of well-trained fighters cannot be quickly replenished.
Before the military operation in Gaza, it is also necessary to process world public opinion. The goal is to ensure that even in the case of unprecedented brutality (physical destruction or the expulsion of the Palestinian population from the Gaza Strip to Egypt, and geographically there is nowhere else), the AOI will not have to fight on "two fronts", which will happen if the Arab armies go to Israel. It is equally important to guarantee the receipt of all necessary logistics from Western countries. Without the mandatory fulfillment of these conditions, a military operation in Gaza will be too risky and may even end up destroying not Hamas, but the State of Israel in its current form.
The instinct of self-preservation tells the Netanyahu government that before the massacre in Gaza, it is necessary to conduct "reconnaissance by combat." Aviation has been thrown at the Palestinians in order to intimidate them, and at the same time to check the reaction of the West, neighboring countries and the "Arab street".
Perhaps there will be no military operation – when Hamas goes to peace talks or "puts on pause" the fighting, using informal arrangements through intermediaries. This will happen if those inside the organization take over who are afraid to see the majority of the population of Gaza in coffins or Egyptian tents, because this leads to a significant reduction in the "fodder base" and the number of supporters.
Now the main direction for the leadership of both Hamas and Israel is to work with Arab countries, or rather, the ruling elite. And she is in an extremely difficult situation, because, on the one hand, she values business ties with the West, on the other hand, she is forced to indulge the desires and aspirations of the population. If you do not listen to what they say "on the Arab street", the people will sweep away the elite as not reflecting the interests of the country and the Arab nation as such (there are plenty of examples).
The elite absolutely does not want to fight with Israel, because in the past such wars ended in failures, and with the defeat of the army, the risk of a coup increases dramatically. Realizing this, the opposition and radicals in Arab countries have used and will use the "Palestinian question" to increase their own influence on the masses.
A separate topic is the mood of public opinion in Western countries. Today, the fight for him is on the children's line. A "war of photographs" has unfolded between Hamas (which regularly publishes pictures of Palestinian babies killed and wounded during Israeli airstrikes) and the Netanyahu government (he showed Biden and Blinken who knows what). European newspapers have not yet received the promised photos from the Israeli authorities and, for lack of anything else, publish pictures of dead and injured Palestinian babies, which sets readers against Netanyahu's policy.
If the public opinion of Western countries continues to lean in support of the Palestinians, it is impossible to exclude a reduction in the material and technical assistance of the AOI, and only by its own forces it is not able to conduct intensive military operations for a long time.
Which will be more important for the West – peace in Ukraine or reconciliation of Israelis and Palestinians? They are not capable of helping to wage two big wars at once.
It is important for Russia to use the moment in its own interests, primarily to increase its influence in the Arab world, defend its positions in Syria, strengthen relations with Iraq, and develop strategic cooperation with Iran.
Relations with Arab countries are also important for Washington. However, according to an article in the Washington Post, during the mediation efforts that began on October 12 with a visit to Israel, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken "faced fierce resistance from the leaders of the Arab world." His interlocutors refused to condemn the Hamas attacks, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called on Israel to stop military operations "that claimed the lives of innocent people" and "lift the siege" from the Gaza Strip so that "the Palestinian people achieve respect for their legitimate rights." Blinken's meeting with the Crown Prince took place on October 15, before which the White House envoy visited Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE. Following the results of the separate negotiations, Israel, instead of the promised start of the military operation, resumed the supply of water to the southern regions of the Gaza Strip.
