TSAMTO, October 19. According to the volume of exports of VIVT to 10 regions of the world by all suppliers in the period 2023-2026, according to the existing portfolio of orders as of October 2023 (and taking into account both completed and still ongoing tenders), the places of the regions in terms of their capacity will be distributed as follows.
Note: of the long-term programs, only those volumes of supplies are taken into account here, the implementation of which is planned for the period up to and including 2026.
1. Asia-Pacific region ($143.022 billion)
2. Middle East ($122.476 billion)
3. Western Europe ($80.502 billion)
4. Eastern Europe ($58.702 billion)
5. South America and Mexico ($22.887 billion)
6. North and North-East Africa ($22,802 billion)
7. North America ($12,801 billion)
8. Countries in the post-Soviet space ($9.650 billion)
9. Tropical Africa with South Africa ($6.356 billion)
10. Central America and the Caribbean ($147.8 million)
Forecast for the upcoming 4-year period
For the period 2023-2026, the trend of redistribution of the share of the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East in the total balance of world exports of VIVT will continue.
The Asia-Pacific region will be significantly ahead of the Middle East in the period under review. Previously, this gap was smaller, and at times the Middle East was ahead of the Asia-Pacific region. This was largely due to the fulfillment by the United States of a number of "mega-contracts" with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and other countries of the Middle East.
Note: the situation in the world is developing so rapidly that it is very problematic to foresee further development of the situation in the world, even for a short period. In particular, this calculation is based on the fact that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not escalate into a regional, much less a world war. But even the existing degradation of the situation may lead to increased demand from the Middle East countries for the purchase of weapons in the near term. At the same time, even in the event of further "damping" of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict by peaceful means, the demand for weapons in the Middle East region will increase, and its capacity in the next 4 years will "catch up" to the capacity of the market of the Asia-Pacific countries, that is, the gap may become smaller (now it is $ 20.5 billion).
The second feature of the upcoming 4-year period will be that the market capacity of Eastern Europe will remain at a high level and this region will retain the 4th place.
The main contribution to such a high result for Eastern Europe will be made by Poland, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria, which have started buying American weapons en masse.
The third feature of the upcoming 4-year period will be that the market capacity of the countries of North and Northeast Africa will also remain at a high level, although this region will lose the 5th position to South America by a minimum margin.
The main reason for the growth of the indicators of North and Northeast Africa will be the large planned purchases of a number of countries in this region (first of all, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia).
The fourth feature will be an increase in the rating by one position of the countries of South America (taking into account) Mexico.
This indicates an increase in arms purchases by the countries of this region after a long stagnation.
The fifth feature, which may become dominant, is the situation around Ukraine. It is still difficult to calculate all the consequences of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, but its results will certainly significantly affect the estimated volumes of the global arms market in the upcoming 4-year period. In a preliminary order, it can be noted that the countries of Western and Eastern Europe, as well as a number of other countries that supply Ukraine with weapons from the presence of their countries' armed Forces, will definitely significantly increase arms purchases. Having got rid of obsolete weapons, these countries will start purchasing more modern weapons systems. At the same time, the main beneficiary of arms exports to these countries will be the United States. Germany will also receive its "dividends" from this.
The calculation was made according to the data available to the CAMTO as of October 2023. The existing order portfolios, ongoing tenders with delivery in the billing period (in whole or in part), as well as intentions for direct purchase are taken into account.
For reference: in the regional aspect, all the countries of the world have been formed into the following groups.
1. Countries of the Asia-Pacific region (29 countries).
Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, North Korea, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Tonga, Fiji, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan.
2. Countries of North and Northeast Africa (11 countries).
Algeria, Djibouti, Libya, Mauritania, Mali, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia.
3. African countries south of the Sahara Desert (39 countries).
Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Cameroon, Comoros, Congo, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, DRC, Kenya, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Swaziland, Seychelles, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, CAR, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa.
4. Middle East countries (16 countries).
Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey.
5. Countries in the post-Soviet space (15 countries).
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine.
6. Eastern European countries (13 countries).
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia. .
7. Western European countries (20 countries).
Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Iceland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Finland, France, Switzerland, Sweden.
8. South American countries and Mexico (13 countries).
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.
9. Central American and Caribbean countries (15 countries).
Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago.
10. North American countries (2 countries).
Canada, USA.
A detailed analysis of the global arms market for the period 2023-2026 (forecast) will be given in the upcoming publication of the "Yearbook of CAMTO-2023" (offered to customers in electronic form). To get acquainted with the content of the collection "Yearbook-2023" will be displayed in the near future on the TSAMTO website in a summary of individual chapters in open access (fragments of the beginning of each chapter, or several fragments for a particular chapter will be presented).
