TSAMTO, October 18. In 2022, the global volume of conventional arms exports (according to the classification of the UN Register) for the first time in recent history exceeded $ 100 billion and amounted to $103.460 billion.
This is stated in the forthcoming "TSAMTO Yearbook-2023", which provides a detailed analysis of the global arms market over the past 8 years (2015-2022).
General analysis of trends in the development of the global arms market in the period after the global economic crisis of 2008 and in the reporting period (2015-2022)
The global crisis that broke out in 2008 had a significant impact on the world export/import of VIVT in the next 5 years against the background of a sluggish recession of the world economy.
The limit on the decline in exports of VIVT took place in 2013 compared to 2012. With the beginning of significant growth in the global economy, a very significant revival of the arms market began in 2014, which can be explained by the fulfillment of previously postponed contracts. First of all, a very significant increase in the volume of exports of VIVT in 2015-2017 is explained by the beginning of US deliveries of arms and military equipment under mega-contracts to the countries of the Middle East (first of all, Saudi Arabia).
In the next two years (2018-2019), the growth rate of world exports of VIVT sharply decreased and went into negative territory. A sign of the impending regression of the market was 2018, when the growth of world exports of VIVT went into negative territory (a decrease of -7.07%). Only in 2020, the market increased significantly (+7.18%), but, nevertheless, did not reach the level of 2017. In 2021, there was a decrease in the growth rate due to the "delayed" impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (the VIVT market is more inert compared to the situation in the global economy). The record annual growth rate was 2022 (+30.69%). This is largely due to the beginning of the execution of a number of mega-contracts between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the exit of the F-35 fighter export program to the maximum level, as well as a sharp increase in the supply of Rafale fighters by France. In addition, the situation around Ukraine has already begun to influence the increase in world exports/imports of VIVT in 2022.
The calculation includes identified exports/imports of new weapons, licensing programs, supplies from the armed Forces of exporting countries, repairs and modernization.
The value of exports/imports is indicated in current US dollars for a particular year (that is, at the time of the conclusion of contracts) and is calculated according to the actual date of the transfer of weapons.
For comparison: in 2015, the volume of identified world exports/imports of conventional weapons amounted to $73123.5 million, in 2016 – $78502.9 million, in 2017 – $80853.4 million, in 2018 – $75137.0 million, in 2019 – $73409.9 million, in 2020 – 78685.0 million dollars, in 2021 – 79161.8 million dollars, in 2022 – 103459.8 million dollars.
In general, for the 8-year period (2015-2022), the volume of world exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) is estimated by CAMTO at $642.333 billion.
Note: speaking of global arms exports in 2022, it is impossible not to mention Ukraine, since a huge amount of weapons were transferred to Kiev.
In the calculation for Ukraine, deliveries were taken into account only under commercial contracts, deliveries within the framework of military assistance were not taken into account, since the gratuitous transfer of weapons is not included in the category of "arms trade".
In 2022, Ukraine became the world's largest recipient of major conventional weapons systems as part of military assistance to Kiev.
Since supplies to Ukraine were carried out mainly within the framework of military assistance, we are talking about the world's largest recipient of weapons, and not an importer of VIVT.
This amount of assistance in 2022 for the main weapons systems is estimated by CAMTO at $15.815 billion. The category of basic weapons systems does not include small arms and ammunition, missiles and ammunition of all types, auxiliary weapons (not related to the category of basic systems), all other equipment, uniforms, etc. Taking them into account, the total amount of military assistance declared by the United States and allies to Ukraine by the end of 2022 (from February 24 to December 31) amounts to $48.9 billion. At the same time, according to the classification of the UN Register, the main weapons systems (their list is given at the end of this material) accounted for $15.815 billion (32.3%) of the total military assistance in 2022.
For comparison: according to the CAMTO, the import of India's main weapons systems under commercial contracts in 2022 amounted to $ 13.748 billion (1st place), Qatar (2nd place) – $ 12.510 billion. The third position in the ranking is occupied by Saudi Arabia with a volume of $ 10.690 billion.
According to commercial contracts, that is, according to the category included in the concept of "arms trade", the import of weapons of Ukraine in 2022 amounted, according to the CAMTO, to $ 744 million.
The volume of deliveries of major weapons systems to Kiev in 2022 as part of gratuitous military assistance in the amount of $ 15.815 billion. (the calculation was based on the residual value of certain types of weapons) amounted to 15.3% of the volume of the world arms trade under commercial contracts ($103.460 billion).
Assessment of the ratio of global arms exports/imports to global defense spending in 2015-2022.
The average share of world exports/imports of conventional weapons in the structure of global defense spending in 2015-2022 was, according to the CAMTO, 4.58%.
In the post-crisis period, the share of global arms exports/imports in the structure of global defense spending began to increase. The maximum figure of 5.04% was recorded in 2017. After a four-year growth in 2018, the share of global arms exports/imports in the structure of global defense spending fell again to 4.46%, an even smaller figure occurred in 2019: 4.14%. In 2020, there was a slight increase in this indicator (4.23%) and again a decline in 2021 (4.05%). Evidence of a significant increase in arms exports/imports in 2022 was a sharp increase in this indicator, which reached 5.18% (the maximum result for the 8-year period under review).
For comparison: the percentage share of world military exports/imports in the structure of world defense spending in 2015 was 4.67%, in 2016 – 4.97%, in 2017 – 5.04%, in 2018 – 4.46%, in 2019 – 4.14%, in 2020 – 4.23%, in 2021 in 2017 – 4.05% and in 2022 – 5.18%.
It should be noted that global military exports/imports are much more "responsive" to the economic crisis than the indicator of military spending. In the conditions of normal functioning of the world economy, the growth rate of world exports/imports of military equipment, as a rule, outstrips (and significantly) the growth rate of world military spending.
Assessment of the growth rates of world exports/imports of VIVT and the growth rates of world GDP in 2015-2022.
In the period under review (2015-2022), the annual growth rate of global arms exports/imports exceeded the GDP growth rate for three years. In 2016, compared to 2015, the growth of world exports/imports of VIV amounted to +7.35%, while GDP grew by only +1.69%. In 2020, compared to 2019, the increase in world exports/imports of VIV amounted to +7.18%, while GDP decreased (-2.70%). In 2022, compared with 2021, the growth of world exports/imports of ViVT amounted to a record +30.69% with moderate GDP growth (+4.08%).
In general, during the period under review, the situation looks as follows.
In 2016, compared to 2015, the growth rate of world arms exports/imports was +7.35% with a very modest growth in world GDP (+1.69%), in 2017 compared to 2016: +2.99% (exports/imports of military equipment) against GDP growth of +6.34%; in 2018 compared to 2017: -7.07% (arms exports/imports) vs. +6.07% (GDP), in 2019 compared to 2018: -2.30% (exports/imports of military equipment) vs. +1.53% (GDP), in 2020 compared to 2019: +7.18% (export/import of ViVT) vs. -2.70% (GDP), in 2021 compared to 2020: +0.61% (export/import of ViVT) vs. +13.46% (GDP), in 2022 compared to 2021: +30.69% (export/import of ViVT) vs. +4.08% (GDP).
In addition, during the period under review, there was a trend of gradual, but not very steady, growth in the percentage ratio of the value of arms exports/imports to world GDP (some regression took place in 2018-2019 and 2021).
In 2016 and 2022, the percentage ratio of the value of arms exports/imports to world GDP, according to the CAMTO, reached its maximum value over an 8-year period and amounted to 0.104%.
For reference: in 2015, this ratio was 0.098%, in 2016 – 0.104%, in 2017 – 0.100%, in 2018 – 0.088%, in 2019 – 0.085%, in 2020 – 0.093%, in 2021 – 0.082% and in 2022 – 0.104%..
The average ratio of the value of arms exports/imports to world GDP for the period 2015-2022 was 0.094%.
The CAMTO analysis of the world arms market takes into account weapons for 8 main types of weapons according to the classification of the UN Register. Each type is divided into several categories according to its functional purpose. In total, 29 categories of VIVT were considered.
In the category "aviation equipment": multi-purpose fighters, attack aircraft, tanker aircraft, basic patrol aircraft, military transport aircraft, AWACS aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, jet combat training aircraft and turboprop training aircraft.
In the category of UAVs: medium-altitude and strategic UAVs, tactical and mini-UAVs.
In the category "helicopter equipment": attack helicopters, anti-submarine and maritime patrol helicopters, heavy transport helicopters, multi-purpose helicopters of medium and light class.
In the category of "naval equipment": combat surface ships of the main class (aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, minesweeping ships, tank landing ships), submarines, boats (missile, artillery, patrol, amphibious, coastal and marine zones).
In the category "armored vehicles": MBT, armored fighting vehicles (infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers), armored vehicles and armored vehicles of the MRAP class.
In the category of "rocket and artillery weapons": ATGM (ATGM), MLRS, artillery systems (PA and CAO guns), mortars.
In the category of "air defense systems": long-range anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, short- and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles, MANPADS, SAU.
A detailed analysis of the global arms market for the period 2015-2022 will be given in the upcoming publication of the "Yearbook of CAMTO-2023" (offered to customers in electronic form). To get acquainted with the content of the collection "Yearbook-2023" will be displayed in the near future on the TSAMTO website in a summary of individual chapters in open access (fragments of the beginning of each of the chapters, or several fragments on a particular chapter will be presented).