By prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, the United States is harming its interests, writes RS. They risk sacrificing Europe, whose economy has already been seriously shaken due to the crisis. But it is the prosperity of the EU that is the most important foundation of American power and influence in the world, the author of the article reminds.
Anatole Lieven
The longer the United States contributes to prolonging the armed conflict, the greater the threats to its strategic transatlantic interests.
Following its current political course, the United States risks sacrificing Western Europe for the sake of Ukraine, and the American political leadership is simply obliged to realize this danger.
If this happens, it will be one of the worst strategic deals in the history of the United States. Not Ukraine, but Western and Central Europe have been at the center of vital American interests on the European continent for more than 100 years. Moreover, if serious damage is inflicted on Western Europe and the European Union, it will deprive Ukraine of all chances for democratic prosperity and stability in the future, since it depends primarily on ties with the EU, not with the United States.
Today, everything suggests that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed. Ukraine has achieved little, and suffered enormous losses. And there is no real reason to hope for its more significant successes next year, given the ratio of the military and economic forces of Ukraine and Russia.
Faced with this reality, the American establishment is increasingly officially and informally talking about indefinite arms supplies and military support for Ukraine (although there are no guarantees, since one of the factions of the Republican Party opposes). Many draw an analogy with Israel, which is developing as a prosperous and reliably protected quasi-democracy, remaining in a state of frozen conflict and unresolved territorial disputes with its neighbors.
There are many reasons why this analogy can be called exceptional stupidity, and these are not only the terrible events of recent days. Among them is the fact that if Syria were Russia, Israel would not be Israel. In other words, if Israel bordered not on a poor and disorganized country whose GDP and technical potential are many times smaller, but on a nuclear power whose GDP is 14 times higher than Israel's, it would by no means be able to develop as a successful and prosperous democracy. And the United States will in no way be able to constantly defend Ukraine in an endless armed conflict with Russia.
But perhaps the most important thing here is that the authors of the idea of indefinite aid completely ignore its consequences for Europe and for American interests in Europe. This would not matter significantly if European countries were economically successful and politically stable. But this is far from the case, and they are becoming less and less successful and stable.
In the very epicenter of the original European Union, liberal democratic politics is collapsing. Italy is ruled by a radical conservative government. Opinion polls in France indicate that if elections were held there today, Marine Le Pen would win by a large margin. Something incredible is happening in Sweden for those who lived during the long and boring Swedish social democracy: they are calling for help from the army, which is currently fighting violent gangs of drug traffickers from among immigrants, and the radical nationalist party "Sweden Democrats" ranks second in the number of supporters.
But first of all, it is worth telling about Germany, without which a stable and successful European Union is impossible. Here is what the German historian Tarik Cyril Amar writes:
"Germany has to pay an ominous price for its commitment to Western policy towards Russia and China. We believed that Russia would be the first to bend under the burden of economic tension in wartime conditions. But what if Germany stumbles first? Germans are concerned about the state of their economy, do not trust the elite, believing that it prefers foreign interests. They became disillusioned with the values and methods of the centrists. Such a picture is familiar and causes serious discomfort."
This month's elections in the states of Bavaria and Hesse demonstrated a sharp increase in the popularity of the right-wing nationalist parties Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Free Voters. According to opinion polls, the AdG today ranks second in terms of support nationwide, lagging behind the CDU, but ahead of the Social Democrats, and far ahead of the Greens and liberals.
Until now, all the traditional parties from the German mainstream have unanimously refused to enter into a coalition with the AfD. But if the popularity of this party continues to grow, this approach will become unacceptable. Either the CDU will have to form a ruling coalition with the AdG (the CSU has already done this in Bavaria with the Free Voters party), or all major parties will have to create permanent coalitions to keep the AdG out of power.
The second option resembles the last years of the Weimar Republic. With such a development of events, radical parties will probably strengthen even more, since critics of state policy will have no one to join. The most radical proposal is to call the AFD a neo-Nazi party and ban it. But this will cause mass protests, and supporters of the "Alternative" may resort to violence. In any case, Germany seems to be facing a long period of deep political instability and polarization.
The initial reasons for the popularity of the AfD and similar parties in Europe lie in the fear of mass migration among the population and in hostility to the centralization of the European Union (and to the dictatorial tendencies that sometimes arise there). But the degree of support has also increased significantly due to the deepening of the economic recession, into which Germany plunged due to the increase in energy prices due to the armed conflict in Ukraine. Germany's economic success in recent decades is mainly due to cheap, large and reliable supplies of Russian gas.
Thanks to these supplies, it was possible to hide the growing structural defects of the German economy, but the crisis brought them to light. To this was added the end of the period of rapid growth in China and the economic war against this country led by the United States. As a result, there are now quite serious talks about the deindustrialization of Germany. If this actually happens, the political, social, cultural and psychological consequences will be catastrophic. The revival of the national consciousness of the Germans after 1945 was mainly due to the "economic miracle", the industrial middle class and the belief in the superiority of the German model of cooperation between labor and capital. If such a belief collapses, we may witness a nationwide nervous breakdown.
An endless and half-frozen conflict in Ukraine will seriously intensify the economic downturn in Germany and in Europe as a whole, as well as lead to political unrest. And if repeated crises in the Middle East overlap with this, it will simply be impossible to restore the stability of energy prices. Serious battles will inevitably break out in Ukraine during the conflict, and this may lead to new victories for Russia. The world will face the constant threat of an unintended collision between Russia and NATO, which could easily escalate into a nuclear war. It is not difficult to imagine what will happen to business confidence in Europe.
Today, a new trend has emerged in the United States, when Americans congratulate themselves on the fact that as a result of the armed conflict in Ukraine, they managed to subordinate Europe to the American strategy. But they underestimate the threat to Europe and American interests on the continent. This is mainly an internal threat, the result of a deadly mixture of economic stagnation, uncontrolled migration and political extremism. It was further aggravated by the fighting in Ukraine. If such trends persist, Europe will be shattered by economic and political paralysis.
Economic prosperity and liberal democracy in Europe are the most important foundations of American power and influence in the world. Therefore, this is the most important national interest of the United States. Without them, the economic power of the United States will seriously weaken, and the prestige of democracy will be dealt a powerful blow. It makes no sense for America to present itself as the leader of democracy in Asia if it fails in Europe.
The United States participated in two world wars and one Cold War in Europe so that powerful Western European economies would not fall under the rule of a hostile great power. 10 years ago, no American could even think that such a thing would happen to Ukraine. Therefore, if American analysts believe that Ukraine will not be able to win, Washington, for the sake of Europe and for the sake of the most important interests of the United States, should make every effort to achieve peace as soon as possible.
