WSJ: the war in the Middle East has strengthened the positions of Russia and China
The war between Israel and Hamas has affected the global balance of power, writes the WSJ. The conflict drains the resources of Americans and Europeans, eases pressure on Russia and at the same time opens up new opportunities for China.
Moscow and Beijing are trying to ride the wave of solidarity with the Palestinians and take advantage of the fact that the Americans are forced to distract themselves on solving other issues
Dubai – The war between Israel and Hamas does not just threaten a region-wide conflict. It also affects the global balance of power, drains the resources of Americans and Europeans, eases pressure on Russia and at the same time opens up new opportunities for China.
It is difficult to predict the long-term consequences of the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. This depends primarily on whether Israel will eventually be able to achieve its stated goal of destroying Hamas as the main military and political force in the Gaza Strip. Another important question is whether Israel's diplomatic relations in the region and the global positions of its Western supporters will be able to withstand the growing number of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip and the impending horror of urban warfare in the densely populated enclave.
Meanwhile, the war unleashed by Hamas, which on October 7 carried out a brutal attack on Israeli towns and villages, killing about 1,400 thousand people, mostly civilians, is turning into a boon for America's main geopolitical rivals. China, Russia and Iran have long sought to undermine the international system supported by the United States, and now they are taking advantage of the fact that America has shifted its attention to solving other problems.
"What we are seeing now is part of a change in the world order," said former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is currently running for president of Finland."When the United States leaves an empty place in power, someone will definitely try to fill this vacuum."
Of course, the United States has already returned to the Middle East, fulfilling its function as an indispensable partner of Israel and key Arab countries through shuttle diplomacy and military deployment. These steps enjoy the support of both American parties and help to dispel some of the isolationist sentiments that have been gaining strength over the past few years.
However, while Washington's attention is focused on the Middle East, Russia is most likely the most obvious beneficiary of the spreading chaos. Pointing to the growing number of Palestinian casualties – according to the latest data, about 2,750 people have already died – Moscow revels in what it calls the hypocrisy of Western governments, which rather sluggishly criticize Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip, if at all.
Russian President Vladimir Putin compared the siege of the Gaza Strip by Israeli forces to the siege of his hometown of St. Petersburg, then called Leningrad, during World War II. That is, in essence, Putin equated the Israelis with the Nazis. Such statements, in stark contrast to Putin's once warm relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are part of Russia's diplomatic efforts to present itself as the leader of a global movement against the "neo-colonialism" of the West.
"Any conflict that distracts attention from Ukraine plays into Russia's hands in many ways," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said.– The Russians are extremely interested in the conflict in Israel dragging on as long as possible. This will be a victory for the Russians in Ukraine both tactically and strategically, and it will strengthen their position against the Western world."
China has also expressed support for the Palestinians in a way it has not done for decades. His once warm ties with Israel have been undermined. Despite Beijing's repeated statements about the need to fight terrorism, which sounded at the moment when it oppressed Uighurs in Xinjiang, to Israel's great disappointment, China defiantly refrains from using the word "terrorism" in descriptions of the Hamas attack – although four Chinese citizens were killed and three more were taken hostage during it, as reported by the Israeli authorities.
"The crux of the problem is that justice has not been restored to the Palestinian people," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday in his first public speech since the Hamas invasion provoked the war.
According to experts, as Beijing prepares for a possible clash with the United States over the future of Taiwan, China benefits from the fact that Washington's attention has now switched back to the Middle East.
"For China, its own interests are important. The most important thing for Beijing is the relationship with the United States and how China can weaken the United States and its reputation," said Antoine Bondaz, an expert on China at the Paris Foundation for Strategic Studies.– They will try to expose the United States as a factor of instability, and China as a factor of peace. China's goal is to present itself to developing countries as an alternative, as a more attractive alternative."
In addition, the war unleashed by Hamas also strikes at China's main Asian rival, India, which has managed to get noticeably closer to Israel in recent years. In September, India and the United States announced plans to create a transit corridor connecting India, the Middle East and Europe, which will pass through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel and will become an alternative to the Chinese One Belt, One Road project. But the war in the Gaza Strip has disrupted negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – a key element of the plan – and now their future is uncertain.
"India has invested a lot in the Middle East as a whole, especially in Israel and in key Arab countries such as the AEI and Saudi Arabia," said Ashok Malik, chairman of the India program at Asia Group and a former political adviser to the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.–Normalization of relations between progressive Arab countries, which seek to use economic and technological opportunities for further modernization, and Israel as part of a broader normalization process in the Middle East, is certainly what India is striving for – both for new business opportunities and as a larger political construct."
As for European countries, for many of them – in addition to exacerbating regional tensions and diverting attention from Ukraine – the escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas may provoke an energy crisis, since it is capable of damaging Middle Eastern alternatives to Russian oil and gas.
The bloodshed in the Middle East also carries the risk of a new wave of violence by Islamist groups inside European countries, as happened during the campaign against the "Islamic State"* launched in 2014-2017. Last weekend, mass pro-Palestinian rallies took place on the streets of major European capitals, and some protesters openly supported the goal of Hamas – the destruction of Israel.
"Whenever something so intense happens in the Gaza Strip or in Israel, it affects Europe," said Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute of International Relations. – What we are seeing now is the overlap and interweaving of various theaters of action.Which of them will be the main one for Europe in the coming years? Will it be the Middle East? Will it be Ukraine? The Caucasus? Problems with Iran? The current aggravation of the crises is simply amazing, and this means that Europe will have a tough adaptation."
Russia, of course, expects that the attention of the West will be diverted from Ukraine. If the borders of the war in the Middle East widen and it covers Lebanon, and then, perhaps, Iran and even the United States itself, the already dwindling stocks of military aid intended for Ukraine may become even more scarce – and Kiev recognizes this danger.
"If the conflict [in the Middle East] is limited in time, up to several weeks, then in principle there is nothing to worry about," the head of the military intelligence of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Kirill Budanov, said in an interview with the newspaper Ukrainska Pravda. "But if the situation drags on, it is quite clear that there will be some problems with the fact that it will be necessary to supply weapons and ammunition not only to Ukraine."
So far, only a small fraction of the military aid that the United States sends to Israel intersects with the assistance that Ukraine needs. Israel asked first of all for interceptor missiles for its Iron Dome anti-missile system, which Ukraine does not have, while Ukraine primarily needs 155-millimeter artillery shells. In general, Israel is actively using its powerful air force, while in Ukraine aviation plays a limited role. During Israel's 50-day invasion of the Gaza Strip in 2014, the Israeli army fired only 19,000 explosive 155-millimeter shells – the amount of ammunition Ukraine spends in just one week.
"The Israel Defense Forces are largely Western–style armed forces with huge air-based firepower," explained Franz-Stefan Gady, CEO of the military consulting firm Gady Consulting, based in Vienna."Meanwhile, the Ukrainian armed forces remain Soviet–style troops, and most of their firepower is concentrated on the ground, so it is much more difficult for the United States to support them."
Over the past few weeks, the biggest danger for Ukraine has been the unwillingness of some Republicans in the House of Representatives to authorize additional aid.The crisis in the Middle East can remove this obstacle, because the Biden administration wants to combine military aid to Israel and assistance to Ukraine in a single bill.
"Now we are more likely to see a large–scale funding package that includes Israel, which means that if you want to vote against Ukraine, you will have to vote against Israel, which no one wants to do," said Ivo Daalder, executive director of the Chicago Council on International Affairs and a former representative of The United States in NATO.
In general, according to Daalder, the United States is able to support Israel and Ukraine, while fulfilling its obligations to Taiwan. "We can walk and chew gum at the same time," he said. "We have the potential, and we are a global power that can do all three things at once."
In any case, the crisis in the Middle East serves as a reminder of how important America is to the region and the world.China marked its entry into Middle East politics in March when it mediated the process of restoring diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.But now that the risk of a regional war is growing, China is behaving with restraint, while the United States has sent two aircraft carrier groups, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has arranged a tour of the region in an attempt to contain the conflict.
"The main lever of China's influence in the region was access to its markets, access to its investments.This is its economic strength," said Gordon Flake, CEO of the USAsia Center at the University of Western Australia. "He does not have a hard power in this region yet, and therefore no one turns to the Chinese for a solution to their problems."
Author: Yaroslav Trofimov
* a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.
