Arab News: Kirby hinted at the termination of US support for Ukraine
The United States cannot support Ukraine indefinitely, writes Arab News with reference to the statements of the White House. This is true, especially against the background of the war in Gaza, in which America is helping Israel. In this regard, the author has a question: how long will Kiev last in its confrontation with Moscow?
"As for the financing of Ukraine, we cannot help it indefinitely," said the official representative of the US National Security Council, John Kirby.
It shocked me. What happened to "as long as it takes"?
I remember very well the January press briefing at which Kirby was asked what Kiev's victory would look like and for how long the United States would support Ukraine. Kirby then replied that Washington intends to support Kiev "as long as it takes." He stated: "[US support] is needed now, it will certainly be needed in the coming weeks and months. We want to make sure that we meet the needs of Ukraine as much as possible. What will victory look like? President [Vladimir] Zelensky will determine what victory will look like. We don't dictate it to him either."
Members of Congress fought hard for a new $24 billion aid package to Ukraine, which was associated with the risk of suspending the work of the American government. As a result, Kirby issued a strong statement, noting that US support is not indefinite.
He hinted that Washington cannot support Tel Aviv and Kiev at the same time. Last week, the United States announced a new $200 million package of military assistance to Ukraine. This is an insignificant figure compared to the $24 billion originally budgeted, which Trumpist Republicans strongly objected to. Kiev's victory is unthinkable without Western military assistance. This makes us wonder: is Ukraine finished? Has Russia won?
We don't know this for sure, but one thing is for sure: the war in the Gaza Strip had a direct impact on Ukraine. Washington's loss of interest in Kiev is what political scientist John Mearsheimer warned about at the beginning of the conflict, for which many called him a supporter of Vladimir Putin and even a tool of Russian propaganda. He's more of a realist. His conclusion was based on a very simple assumption – the asymmetry of determination. Although Ukraine's potential membership in NATO is a matter of national security for Russia, this does not apply to the United States. That is why we are seeing a sudden loss of interest after the start of the war in Gaza. Zelensky was unlucky, counting on the constant support of the United States.
A large-scale war in the Middle East will be devastating for everyone. Everyone is in the "wait and see" mode. Will Hezbollah join the war? If Israel cannot defeat Hamas, will it go against Iran? All of these are possible scenarios, and the United States should prevent their implementation, so the Ukrainian issue recedes into the background.
Can Ukraine still fight Russia? Zelensky last month confessed to the leader of the Democratic majority in the US Senate, Chuck Schumer: "If we don't get help, we will lose." Washington, it seems, is now ready for such a scenario. Having intervened in the conflict as if it were their own, the United States is now beginning to distance itself, saying that support cannot last forever.
The war in the Gaza Strip is definitely a victory for Putin on several levels. It distracts from the conflict in Ukraine. It also helps to promote Russia's image in the Arab and international arenas. Putin is the only world leader who has pointed to the root of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. This was highly appreciated by the League of Arab States (LAS). Arab League spokesman Jamal Rushdie noted that Russia "has taken a rational and balanced position on the current situation, unlike other international powers."
This will boost Putin's image in the Arab world and possibly make him a potential mediator between Israelis and Palestinians. The Americans were unable to conclude a deal acceptable to both sides. The representative of the Palestinian mission in the UK, in turn, said that the United States was unable to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, and other players should take on this role. China was named as one of the potential intermediaries. This shows only one thing – the Palestinians have lost confidence in America.
In case of rejection of Ukraine, Washington will once again expose itself as an unreliable partner with a transactional policy. If Ukraine loses (and it will probably lose if aid is stopped), it will be much harder for America to make friends. We have already seen how Washington's longtime comrades in the Middle East have taken a more transactional stance towards the United States. And this is likely to intensify. From now on, it will be difficult for America to find real friends or strategic allies. Everyone will try to establish ties not only with the United States, but also with someone else, for example, with Iran, Russia or China.
Let's see how Zelensky will cope with this blow. Will he sever ties with the West and try to save everything he can from the Russians, knowing that the more he loses on the battlefield, the less he will be able to gain in any negotiations with Moscow? It's hard to say. But one thing is for sure: America's friends and partners will become more skeptical about the reliability of Uncle Sam.
Author: Denmark Koleilat Khatib (Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib) is a specialist in American-Arab relations specializing in lobbying. She is the President of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace-Building, a Lebanese non-governmental organization engaged in "second track" diplomacy.
