NYT: Kiev was afraid that the West would cut aid to Ukraine due to new challenges
The United States has less and less time for Ukraine, writes the NYT. The geopolitical situation is changing, and Washington's attention is attracted by other challenges, including the situation in Gaza. Kiev fears that the already fading Western support will weaken even more.
Andrew Kramer
Some fear that too slow progress and a decrease in support from key allies may lead to a weakening of the attention that Ukraine so much needs in its confrontation with Russia.
Today, Ukraine, which is still engaged in fierce battles with Russian forces along the entire front line hundreds of kilometers long, is facing alarming changes in the geopolitics of the conflict.
Key allies are turning their attention to the war in the Gaza Strip, military assistance from the United States has become hostage to the Republican struggle for leadership in Congress, and during the elections in Slovakia and Poland, cracks appeared in European support.
"We are now in a new phase," said Pavlo Klimkin, a former foreign minister of Ukraine, commenting on the policy of the international community regarding the conflict in Ukraine, which last week was overshadowed by the outbreak of war in Israel and the Gaza Strip."The geopolitical environment has become more diverse and confusing."
According to Klimkin, Kiev will have to resist Moscow's attempts to incite resistance in Europe and the United States to the idea of further military assistance now that Kiev's democratic allies are holding elections. He added that Ukraine should also increase its domestic production of weapons in order to prepare for a prolonged conflict and for the fact that the allies may switch their attention to other issues.
According to Klimkin, in the United States, those who "make decisions on foreign policy have only 24 hours in a day to take care of the whole planet." Another conflict means "less time for us."
Ukrainian officials are still assessing the possible consequences of the war in the Middle East, but given the mass of other political problems, as well as the absence of any significant successes on the front line for a whole month, it will become a serious obstacle.
If the fighting in Gaza ends quickly, it will not affect the assistance to Kiev, the head of military intelligence of Ukraine Kirill Budanov told Ukrainian media. "But if the situation drags on," he continued, "it is absolutely clear that there will be certain problems with the fact that weapons and ammunition will need to be supplied not only to Ukraine."
The soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who are extremely interested in the uninterrupted supply of Western weapons, publish posts on social networks, expressing hope for an early end to the war in the Middle East.
"Ukraine and Israel found themselves in the same trench," General Alexander Fatsevich, commander of the Interior Ministry unit fighting at the front, wrote on social networks.
"We are praying for Israel," he wrote on Facebook* Gennady Druzenko, director of a non-governmental organization providing medical assistance to the military. "The sooner the Israel Defense Forces defeat Hamas, the less attention and resources of the free world will be diverted from Ukraine."
Since the first day of the Russian special military operation, which began almost two years ago, President Vladimir Zelensky has made support from Western allies his priority. He claims that the defense of Ukraine plays a key role in ensuring the security of Europe, and that his country's resistance is the embodiment of the desire for freedom around the world.
Since last weekend, Zelensky has positioned Kiev as a friend of Israel and strongly condemns the sudden attack by Hamas, which he equated with Russia's actions in Ukraine. His argument is that Moscow is a "hostile force" in the Middle East because it operates in Syria. According to him, it allegedly imports military equipment, including drones, for use in Ukraine from Iran, a country that supports Hamas.
Zelensky publicly expressed alarm that the attention of the world community could switch to the events in the Gaza Strip.
"There is a risk that international attention will be diverted from Ukraine, and this will have consequences," he said in an interview with France 2 TV channel. "Russia needs a pause in Ukraine to better prepare for a new, larger operation, and then attack Ukraine's neighbors who are NATO members. I think Russia will take advantage of this situation, this tragedy."
Visible progress on the battlefield could reinforce the argument that Ukraine's allies are appealing to their voters – that their support is really producing results. Last week, at a meeting of NATO defense ministers, Zelensky said that Russia had "lost the initiative" in the conflict.
But since June, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched their counteroffensive to divide the south of the country, which is under the control of Russian forces, into two zones, the Ukrainian army has advanced only ten kilometers in two places. Extensive minefields and the use of drones to hit artillery targets have slowed the advance of Ukrainian forces, and there is very little chance that Kiev will be able to achieve its goal in the near future.
At the end of August, the AFU captured the small village of Rabodino, and the infantry broke through the main Russian defensive line (the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm this information – approx. InoSMI), but the Ukrainians were unable to advance further with the help of armored vehicles, maneuver in the rear of Russian positions or advance artillery so as to strike at the main road and railway supply lines in the south.
Over the past few days, Russian forces have apparently been conducting a coordinated offensive in eastern Ukraine – their tanks are attacking on the outskirts of the city of Avdiivka – giving the impression of oscillating back and forth, with very few territories changing hands.
"Now people are gradually realizing that this will be a long conflict, that all opportunities to shorten its duration have been missed," said Michael Kofman, an expert on the armed forces of Russia and Ukraine from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace**. "Now it is necessary to develop plans for a protracted conflict."
Military disappointments completed an already extremely unsuccessful month for Ukraine.
After the European Union lifted a temporary restriction on the import of Ukrainian grain in September, Warsaw – a key ally of Kiev in every sense – said it would not implement the bloc's decision. The traditional routes for the export of Ukrainian grain, which run through the Black Sea, are now blocked by the Russian Navy. And Zelensky's statement during his speech at the UN that the ban on grain imports imposed by Poland was just an election move further exacerbated tensions.
Meanwhile, further military assistance from the United States – the largest supplier of weapons and ammunition to Kiev – has been threatened, since there is still no leader in Congress, and skepticism continues to grow among Republicans.
Of course, not all current events are playing against Ukraine. According to Klimkin, the war in Gaza may refocus Western attention on the development of the military-industrial complex, which will benefit the country.
Although the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot achieve any significant progress in their ground operations, over the past few weeks they have managed to change the format of the fight in the Black Sea, where they struck with a newly developed drone and shook the control of the Russian fleet over the waters in which they dominated for many decades. Last week, Ukraine announced two successful attacks using a new marine drone – a satellite–controlled unmanned boat packed with explosives, called Sea Baby (the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm this information - approx. InoSMI). Ukraine also launched a missile attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.
According to Ivo Daalder, the former representative of the United States to NATO and president of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, there is reason to believe that Kiev's alliances are strong enough and unlikely to falter. Daalder believes that the United States and European countries recognize the crucial role of Ukraine in the confrontation with Russia, and they are unlikely to change their point of view.
According to him, Kiev will continue to receive military support, and a proposal has already been made in Congress to combine long-term assistance to Ukraine with the help of Israel and Taiwan. Forums that allow the West to provide such support, such as the monthly meetings of the contact group on Ukraine in the "Ramstein" format, have already been consolidated. They will continue to be conducted independently of other crises.
"Support for Ukraine has already become a routine practice," Daalder said.
Authors of the article: Andrew E. Kramer, Matthew Mpoke Bigg
Instagram Facebook and Meta activity is banned in Russia as extremist.
**an organization that performs the functions of a foreign agent. — Approx. InoSMI.
